100°F Days And Major Hurricane Landfall On Upper Texas Coast

[Ptarmigan]

This maybe the summer where we may not see 100°F days. I looked at old data noticed summers without 100°F days had a major hurricane make landfall. This going from 1883 to 2010. Some years are not available at this time from 10/1909 to 12/1920. 12 August to October major hurricanes made landfall from 1883 to 2010. One major hurricane made landfall in July of 1909, the Velasco Hurricane.

Summers Did Not Reach 100°F and Major Hurricane Landfalls
1900*-Great Galveston Hurricane
1941*-Hurricane 2
1942*-Hurricane 2
1949-Hurricane 10 Latest Major Hurricane To Make Landfall In October
1961*-Carla
1983*-Alicia

6 out of 12 major hurricanes made landfall with no 100°F days in the summer. 5 of the 6 that had no 100°F had wet July's in the Upper Texas Coast and were in the top 20. As pointed out, a wet July is correlated with major hurricane landfalls for the Upper Texas Coast.


Summers Reached 100°F and Major Hurricane Landfalls
1886-Indianola Hurricane (First 100 on June 17, 1886)
1932-Freeport Hurricane (First 100 on July 16, 1932)
1945-Hurricane 5 (First 100 on August 17, 1945)
2005-Rita (First 100 on July 1, 2005)

4 out of 12 major hurricanes made landfall with 100°F. None of the July's were Top 20 wettest on record for Upper Texas Coast.


Not Known Due To Missing Data from 10/1909 to 12/1920
1915-Galveston Hurricane of 1915
1918-Hurricane 1

Code: Select all

Top 20 Wettest For Upper Texas Coast
1979	 14.06	        1
2007	 13.72	        2
1933	 11.87	        3
1942	 11.82	        4*
1903	 11.42	        5
2010	 10.75	        6
2006	 10.63	        7
1902	  9.70	        8
1900	  9.57	        9*
1943	  9.24	       10
1983	  9.06	       11*
1939	  8.85	       12
1936	  7.97	       13
1919	  7.88	       14
1941	  7.61	       15*
1961	  7.55	       16*
1976	  7.51	       17
1959	  7.46	       18
1908	  7.31	       19
1916	  6.94	       20

This is preliminary at this time. I will do a more thorough analysis to determine if there is a correlation. Looks like if summers do not see 100°F, there is a better chance for a major hurricane to make landfall, especially if they are wet July's.

A little interesting trivia about 1941 and 1942 major hurricanes. Both made landfalls on Tuesdays.


Source For Data
http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/coop/coop.html

Before 1969
Houston WB City

After 1969
Houston Intercontinental Airport

[wxman57]

I believe that we're seeing more 100F days lately because the thermometer exposure is different from the "old day". With lots more concrete around the city, there's a heat island effect that wasn't in existence much of the last century (until the 1970s). There are just a lot more heat sources than there were in the first half of last century.

In addition, I've seen studies that suggest the change to a new material for instrument shelters may have contributed to most of the temperature rise last century attributed to global warming.

[Ptarmigan]

I believe that we're seeing more 100F days lately because the thermometer exposure is different from the "old day". With lots more concrete around the city, there's a heat island effect that wasn't in existence much of the last century (until the 1970s). There are just a lot more heat sources than there were in the first half of last century.

In addition, I've seen studies that suggest the change to a new material for instrument shelters may have contributed to most of the temperature rise last century attributed to global warming.

You raise a very good point.