June 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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captainbarbossa19
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Rip76 wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 2:17 pm Such a depressing weather pattern for weather lovers.
It's even worse for people with allergies and/or respiratory issues. Lucky me--I have both.
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jasons2k
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Says it all:
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captainbarbossa19
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jasons2k wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 4:05 pmSays it all:
Yeah. The breeze outside reminds me of the time I was at summer camp in 2013 NW of Forth Worth. The wind felt like a furnace.
Stratton20
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Ah nothing better than being stuck outside your apartment because of a fire alarm going off for about the 3,000th in the past few weeks and its still like a furnace out here🙃🙃
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captainbarbossa19
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Stratton20 wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 4:47 pm Ah nothing better than being stuck outside your apartment because of a fire alarm going off for about the 3,000th in the past few weeks and its still like a furnace out here🙃🙃
Is the heat outside so intense it's triggering the fire alarm over and over? :lol:
Stratton20
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captainbarbossa19 you know I wouldnt be surprised 😂😂, it went off because some knuckle head set something on fire in their kitchen haha
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djmike
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Man talk about winning the lottery this morning. Port Arthur and High Island. Port Arthur so far measured 1/4” as these UNEXPECTED storms move NE. Hopefully I get a surprise soon!
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Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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djmike
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Woohoo! Looks like I get some falling gold shortly! Cmon baby!
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Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
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jasons2k
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Glad someone got lucky!!

I got a late start on my run this morning. It was already 84 degrees. Needless to say, I couldn’t finish it. I was walking intermittently before I hit 2 miles. That heat is brutal. It’s already 90 here at 10am!!
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jasons2k
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Morning update from Jeff Lindner:

Mid and upper level ridges of high pressure continue over the southern plains with hot and dry conditions.

The ridge axis has shifted a bit toward the NNE and NE over the last few days and this has allowed a 1-2 degree drop in high temperatures from the weekend and when combined with gusty SSW winds of 10-20mph, heat index values have fallen below the 108 advisory threshold. With that said…it is still hot and heat safety precautions should be taken for anyone with extended outdoor exposure.

Ridge will build slightly more to the north later this week and this will allow a pool of deeper moisture to move into the Texas coast from the east along with a disturbance that will round the edge of the ridge. The hope is that the increasing moisture and lift from the disturbance and seabreeze will be enough to overcome the subsidence from the ridge and produce a few showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. Friday looks to be the best day for some activity along the seabreeze, but am hesitant to go more than about 20-30% for coverage. Before the deeper moisture arrives on Friday, the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will continued to be pointed into the region with hazy/dusty skies into Thursday.

Mid and upper level ridge builds back into the region over the weekend and this will once again end any slight rain chances and push temperatures back toward or over 100 by Sunday into early next week. Tropical moisture associated with an area of disturbed weather over the western Caribbean Sea and central America will remain south of Texas given strong ridging in place.

Tropics:
Trough of low pressure remains in place north of Panama this morning with scattered areas of convection. This feature has not become any better organized in the last 48 hours and global model support for development has decreased mainly due to interaction with the land areas of central America. A few models still show development and a track away from central America with a longer time over water and general track toward Belize and maybe the southern Bay of Campeche, but these models are now outliers compared to the consensus. NHC chances for development remain around 40% and this is only if a surface low forms away from the land areas of central America. With high pressure over the US Gulf coast, anything that forms will be guided to the west, well south of the Gulf coast.
Stratton20
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The good news is models are starting to show the ridge breaking down next week around days 9/10, especially the GFS, we can only hope its right! This pattern sucks!
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captainbarbossa19
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So I was looking at climate data at Jack Brooks Airport, and as it turns out for my area, this year is the #2 driest year going back to at least 1997. #1 is obviously 2011, #3 is 2010, but #4 turns out to be 2005. Interestingly, this year is about the average and median of precipitation between 2011 and 2005. What really intrigued me is when I looked at the data in 2005 starting in April. This year and 2005 have had almost the exact amounts of precipitation every month starting in April. April 2005 recorded 0.88 inches, while April 2022 recorded 0.85. May 2005 recorded 2.69 inches, while May 2022 recorded 2.61. Looking at June 2005, there was essentially no rain until around mid-month and temperatures were much warmer than normal. Since rainfall was low and temperatures were warmer, my guess is that there was strong ridging that month too.

2005 Yearly Summary:
https://www.weather.gov/source/lch/climate/bptann05.txt

June 2005 Monthly Summary:
https://www.weather.gov/source/lch/climate/bptjun05.txt

2022 Yearly Summary:
https://www.weather.gov/source/lch/climate/bptann22.txt
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DoctorMu
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Hey, we got CLOUDS this afternoon, and have *cooled* to an icy 91°F with "wind chill."

Beggars can't be choosers! :lol:
oleander
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Yes, I was wondering if I should wrap my pipes. Decided to hold off.
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jasons2k
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The clouds look nice and juicy this am. Maybe some folks will get lucky today.
Stratton20
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The latest 12z models are beginning to break down and weaken the death ridge over us late next week, fingers crossed
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 151725
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1225 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

A repetitive forecast expected. VFR conditions will prevail today
and through most of the evening hours. Some isolated showers are
popping up near and east of the I-45 corridor, but model
uncertainty and overall coverage did not warrant VCSH for now.
However, some short term amendments are possible should stronger
showers develop and push over an airport this afternoon.

MVFR ceilings could develop north of IAH during the overnight
hours. Soon after sunrise from 12-15Z, a BKN cumulus cloud
ceiling from 1500-2500 kft should develop across most of Southeast
TX and then scatter out by 15Z. Some models are hinting at patchy
fog during the overnight hours too from 09-12Z, so mentioned
patchy fog for now for our fog prone areas such as LBX, SGR, and
CXO.

Lenninger

&&
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captainbarbossa19
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On the bright side, with gas being so high, I am saving some money on fuel for mowing with this drought.
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jasons2k
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I thought we would see some showers around today. Sometimes us old timers do a decent job of reading the sky the old-fashioned way.

One pulled a Lucy on me and missed me by less than a mile. I’m watching that little outflow boundary east of here to see if it can pop some more showers along it.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Wed Jun 15, 2022 2:56 pm I thought we would see some showers around today. Sometimes us old timers do a decent job of reading the sky the old-fashioned way.

One pulled a Lucy on me and missed me by less than a mile. I’m watching that little outflow boundary east of here to see if it can pop some more showers along it.
There were some heavy clouds here this morning. The few seabreeze pop ups moved N mostly east of I-45.

Only 95° in San Antonio. 99°F here.
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