Long range model discussion

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 well thats a pretty aggressive signal from the EPS in the western GOM, even the GEPS has a pretty decent signal, interesting days ahead

[Stratton20]

18z GFS with a 997 mb tropical storm into northern mexico at hour 258( 10 days) we got an interesting week ahead of us for sure

[Cpv17]

Some pretty heavy hitters that popped up on the 18z GEFS that are aimed at Texas.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yeah I just saw that, interesting but it is june, it would be tough to get a very strong system in the gulf, but definitely raises an eyebrow for sure, overnight models will be interesting

[TexasBreeze]

Strong west southwest shear has been a constant in the Gulf for awhile now. Still there currently and we will see if it calms down underneath the building upper ridge pattern coming up. Also will see if a weakness happens, but it could be hard for one around here due to drought/ heat.

[don]

12Z CMC with a weak tropical storm making landfall around Matagorda similar to yesterdays 12z run FWIW.With decent support from the ensembles of both the CMC and GFS. If something does develop in the gulf, track will depend on the position and strength of ridging.Based on what i see now it looks like the western gulf "could" be a target zone for any tropical moisture or TC development.Could stay to our south and go into Mexico or the Pacific or it could sneak its way further north towards Texas or Louisiana if there's a weakness.Way too early to know of course.We'll know more by this weekend or early next week. And need to see also if the operational EURO starts to pick up on it.

[Stratton20]

12z EPS

[Stratton20]

18z GEFS has moved up potential development in the western caribbean, now has a pretty strong signal 7 days out, definitely getting within a range that isnt fantasy, quite a few members on this rub of the GEFS have a pretty strong system getting into the western gulf, kinda raises my eyebrow

[Ptarmigan]

It would be nice to see rain.

[Stratton20]

Ptarmigan amen to that!

[Cpv17]

Till the Euro shows something I wouldn’t expect this to get much attention. But with the way the Euro shows genesis you might not see it show anything till we already have a ts developed and even then it would probably only show an open wave lol

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 isnt the Euro typically the most conservative model in terms of showing some sort of development?

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 isnt the Euro typically the most conservative model in terms of showing some sort of development?

It’s the most conservative by a country mile but it’s the one that the majority of people still go by.

[captainbarbossa19]

Till the Euro shows something I wouldn’t expect this to get much attention. But with the way the Euro shows genesis you might not see it show anything till we already have a ts developed and even then it would probably only show an open wave lol

That is true, but it did a decent job with Alex. It really did not develop much until emerging over the Atlantic.

[Cpv17]

Till the Euro shows something I wouldn’t expect this to get much attention. But with the way the Euro shows genesis you might not see it show anything till we already have a ts developed and even then it would probably only show an open wave lol

That is true, but it did a decent job with Alex. It really did not develop much until emerging over the Atlantic.

Remember what the Euro did with Hanna? That was really bad. For whatever reason (it used to not be) the past few years it’s really struggled to sniff out genesis..even just a couple days out.

[Stratton20]

00z GEFS with a pretty good signal, still has some really strong members, and 00z CMC with a weak tropical storm making landfall in brownsville, operational GFS still not biting yet though

[cperk]

00z GEFS with a pretty good signal, still has some really strong members, and 00z CMC with a weak tropical storm making landfall in brownsville, operational GFS still not biting yet though

Stratton the operational 12Z GFS is now chiming in with a 953mb hurricane barreling down on the Houston/Galveston area around hour 360.

[Stratton20]

cperk yeah saw that, but i would probably put that in the back burner, what the GFS is doing is just weird

[Stratton20]

I think what could make this potentially a hard forecast of something tries to develop in about 8-9 days in the caribbean is the CAG, that always seems to be giving models fits as they try to guess which side of the basin vorticity may try to consolidate in, operational runs not buying , but still a decent signal in the 18z GEFS at days 7-8 to at least keep watching

[don]

Moderate probability of TC development put out by NOAA.