March 2022

[Cromagnum]

Literal toad straggler during one of the rounds of storms. Had a bullfrog wander all the way up my driveway from the sudden deluge.

[Cpv17]

Wow, am I pleasantly surprised! Just checked my rain gauge and it turns out I picked up 1.05” last night and early this morning!

Btw, the SPC has already put us under a 15% watch area for severe storms next Monday. Looks like a real doozy. They’re calling for multiple supercells with all severe weather modes on the table. Next Monday could possibly be the real deal.

[don]

Yep if the trend continues there may be a severe weather outbreak next week.Not often that SPC puts a risk of severe weather 7+ days out. The EURO has also been consistently showing a severe weather outbreak across the state for several days now.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z


Day 6/Sunday looks to be a relatively quiescent convective day, as
the eastern U.S. trough moves offshore, and the next upper system
crossing the western states, resulting in surface high pressure and
ridging aloft across the central U.S. and Gulf of Mexico.

As the upper trough shifts into the central/southern Plains Day
7/Monday, severe weather risk will increase. While fairly
substantial differences exist in the various models, regarding
evolution of the upper system -- and thus the details of the surface
pattern, is appears likely that returning, a fairly well-modified
Gulf mixed layer will advance inland across the eastern half of
Texas. Afternoon heating -- beneath steepening lapse rates aloft --
will likely support scattered storm development across a substantial
portion of eastern Texas, and possibly portions of adjacent
Oklahoma/Arkansas/Louisiana. Easterly/southeasterly low-level flow
on the back side of the surface high shifting into the eastern
states, beneath flow veering to southwesterly and increasing
substantially in magnitude with height, will likely yield shear
favorable for supercells across a broad area. As such, an
all-hazards severe event -- including potential for tornadoes --
seems fairly likely to result. Therefore, a 15% risk area is being
introduced at this time.

By Tuesday, model differences apparent leading into the latter
stages of the medium-range period become more substantial. In any
case, with a moist low-level airmass preceding the front and thus
supporting afternoon destabilization, and with south-southwesterly
flow aloft spreading eastward with time, severe weather -- including
potential for tornadoes -- is again expected, most likely within
portions of an area bounded on the west by East Texas, on the east
by the central Gulf Coastal region, and on the north by the Mid
Mississippi Valley.

[jasons2k]

I got .33” here. At least it’s something.

[Stratton20]

Cromagnum what a cute little fella! I once found a copperhead that was displaced after a storm, you never know what kind of critters you may come across

[djmike]

Got 0.75” In Beaumont. Haven’t gotten that much since last year.

[Cromagnum]

That severe weather threat is way too early to believe. I'll raise an eyebrow if it still shows that this weekend.

[Cpv17]

That severe weather threat is way too early to believe. I'll raise an eyebrow if it still shows that this weekend.

It’s extremely rare that you see the SPC issue a risk 7 days out and even more rare that they issue it over southeast TX 7 days out. It could easily change.

[captainbarbossa19]

Well, the 12z Euro looked very promising for rainfall, but I will not buy it yet. However, I believe the overall pattern is shifting towards a more active state for our area. The fact that many areas received the most rainfall in months suggests that the pattern may be changing.

[Cpv17]

Well, the 12z Euro looked very promising for rainfall, but I will not buy it yet. However, I believe the overall pattern is shifting towards a more active state for our area. The fact that many areas received the most rainfall in months suggests that the pattern may be changing.

Looks great for areas north of I-10.

[DoctorMu]

0.80 inches here. Good enough for this week!

Today has been a very nice day. High around 70°F. Low dewpoint. Northerly breeze 15 mph.

Monday could be wet again.

[jasons2k]

Correction on the rainfall. My cylinder gauge out in the open had .37”
The automated one is in a bit of a tighter space so it can be off a little.

[Cpv17]

18z GFS..now that’s what I’m talking about!

[captainbarbossa19]

18z GFS..now that’s what I’m talking about!

It is a little wetter through day 10, but I see what you are talking about beyond that!

[DoctorMu]

Much of the rain next week per Ensembles, etc. looks NE of the area. Would gladly take 0.5 in or more.

[captainbarbossa19]

Much of the rain next week per Ensembles, etc. looks NE of the area. Would gladly take 0.5 in or more.

I was surprised to find standing water in my yard this afternoon after the rain yesterday. As far as where the heaviest rain will be, I think it's most likely too early to know. We probably will know in a few days if we are going to see something decent though.

[Cpv17]

Strong wording from the SPC on day 6 (Monday). Saying conditions will be quite favorable for supercells with very large hail and tornadoes.

[don]

spcd6prob.us_sc.png

From SPC this morning

By Monday/Day 6, as the next upper trough shifts into the central
and southern Plains, an evolving cold front is forecast to cross the
western half of Texas. Strong southeasterly low-level flow will
advect a moist Gulf airmass into Texas, contributing to afternoon
destabilization. Meanwhile, as a strong (100 kt) southwesterly
mid-level jet associated with the upper system overspreads the
southern Plains atop the low-level southeasterlies, shear quite
favorable for supercells is expected. As convection develops near
and ahead of the cold front, evolution of locally intense/severe
storms -- including potential for very large hail and tornadoes --
is expected.

From HGX this morning

Mother Nature wastes no time by presenting us with a decent setup
for strong thunderstorms right at the beginning of Spring. An upper-
level low embedded in the trough amplifies the southwesterly flow
aloft leading to a subsequent increase in WAA for Monday. 850mb
temperatures reach the 14-16 degree Celsius range, which is
supportive of high temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s. It`s still
too early to get into the specifics since the forecast is highly
dependent on the progression of the upper-level low, but some things
look to be certain based on trends. Mainly that...it`s gon` rain.

Moisture transport is substantially increased with a developing
surface low on Monday as PW values reach 1.5"-1.7". Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop on Monday
afternoon (with some possibly becoming strong to severe; more
favorable the further north and west you go) ahead of an
approaching cold front. The Storm Prediction Center has already
outlined most of Southeast Texas with a 15% chance of severe
weather on Day 6 (Monday). With PW values climbing well above the
90th percentile and near the daily max (1.71"), heavy rain will
also be possible especially along the frontal boundary as the
cold front pushes in. As of the latest suite of models, the
progression of the upper-level low looks to be slow enough to
where it`ll take the front a bit of time to push all the way
through the region. Resultingly, Monday and Tuesday look fairly
wet and I felt very comfortable throwing in 60% PoPs this far out.
The cold front itself is on track to push offshore by early
Wednesday morning, but again it`s too far out to set that in
stone. This is something worth keeping an eye on as the week
progresses.

[don]

Yikes not often you see soundings like this down here...Looks like there may be two rounds of severe weather one on Monday and another on Tuesday.

[Cpv17]

Yikes not often you see soundings like this down here...Looks like there may be two rounds of severe weather one on Monday and another on Tuesday.

Can you explain how to read those? I’ve never understood them and I’m pretty sure the vast majority of us on here don’t know how either.