February 2022

[Kingwood36]

Not far enough tho for my taste

[Cpv17]

Not far enough tho for my taste

I don’t really care if we get wintry precipitation or not. I just want some cold temps. Wintry precipitation would just be a bonus.

[Stratton20]

If we do get any its likely going to stay in the Northern Counties and points northward, the closer to the coast, the more the SE Ridge has an influence

[sambucol]

Not far enough tho for my taste

I don’t really care if we get wintry precipitation or not. I just want some cold temps. Wintry precipitation would just be a bonus.

I agree.

[Stratton20]

Plus the additional problem is the front might stall, might not make it all the way through until friday, not sure if that has an effect on the cold air though

[jasons2k]

At this time, my lowest forecast low is 38, on Thursday night. I hope it stays that way. Time for Spring.

[don]

From Wxman57

Surface maps associated with the cold front just look wrong, to me. I can see what the models are doing. With an upper-level trough to the west, they have SW wind at 50 kts across Texas Wed/Thu. Because the upper level winds are from the SW, they're stalling the southward movement of the front near Houston. Most famous case of this mistake was in November of 1993 (Leon Lett Thanksgiving game). I remember that the models had a big upper-level low over 4-corners and SW winds aloft across Texas. The models drove the cold air south to the TX coast then back to the north into Oklahoma as the upper low deepened. Nope! The front kept on moving south, regardless of the upper-level flow. It was n the middle of the Gulf while the models had the front retreating north to Oklahoma. We were below freezing in Houston vs. in the upper 70s. Big ice storm across Texas and that famous play by Leon Lett.

Similarly, I do not believe that the cold air will stall and retreat back to the north this week under SW flow aloft. This means that the cold air across Texas may be deeper than the models are predicting. That giant 50+F warm nose aloft over D-FW may not be so large. Might increase the risk of freezing rain/sleet there, but the cold air probably won't be deep enough for snow. I think that the front may move south of Houston on Wednesday vs. Friday.

[DoctorMu]

06z NAM is colder and has wintry precipitation farther south fwiw

Back to where we were a few days ago.

[DoctorMu]

From Wxman57

Surface maps associated with the cold front just look wrong, to me. I can see what the models are doing. With an upper-level trough to the west, they have SW wind at 50 kts across Texas Wed/Thu. Because the upper level winds are from the SW, they're stalling the southward movement of the front near Houston. Most famous case of this mistake was in November of 1993 (Leon Lett Thanksgiving game). I remember that the models had a big upper-level low over 4-corners and SW winds aloft across Texas. The models drove the cold air south to the TX coast then back to the north into Oklahoma as the upper low deepened. Nope! The front kept on moving south, regardless of the upper-level flow. It was n the middle of the Gulf while the models had the front retreating north to Oklahoma. We were below freezing in Houston vs. in the upper 70s. Big ice storm across Texas and that famous play by Leon Lett.

Similarly, I do not believe that the cold air will stall and retreat back to the north this week under SW flow aloft. This means that the cold air across Texas may be deeper than the models are predicting. That giant 50+F warm nose aloft over D-FW may not be so large. Might increase the risk of freezing rain/sleet there, but the cold air probably won't be deep enough for snow. I think that the front may move south of Houston on Wednesday vs. Friday.

Massive overrun. Euro has been seeing this for awhile.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu do you think we could have another sneaky wintry event setup if temps come in faster and colder?

[Cpv17]

At this time, my lowest forecast low is 38, on Thursday night. I hope it stays that way. Time for Spring.

If the mesoscale models are to believed, that could end up being close to your high temperature.

[jasons2k]

At this time, my lowest forecast low is 38, on Thursday night. I hope it stays that way. Time for Spring.

If the mesoscale models are to believed, that could end up being close to your high temperature.

Geez I sure hope not. It just hit 80 here. The concrete is sweating. I wish the return flow would stick around but Mother Nature obviously has other plans. I expect the NWS to lower their numbers soon. The colder and faster trend on the meso models is for real.

[Cpv17]

At this time, my lowest forecast low is 38, on Thursday night. I hope it stays that way. Time for Spring.

If the mesoscale models are to believed, that could end up being close to your high temperature.

Geez I sure hope not. It just hit 80 here. The concrete is sweating. I wish the return flow would stick around but Mother Nature obviously has other plans. I expect the NWS to lower their numbers soon. The colder and faster trend on the meso models is for real.

Concrete is sweating here at my job too in Rosenberg. I hate when that happens. It makes such a mess everywhere. Like a pig slop.

[Cpv17]

I noticed there’s about a 30 degree difference between the NAM and GFS Thursday morning. Incredible!

[Stratton20]

Wow thats insane!

[DoctorMu]

NAM is RAMming the cold front to the coast a day earlier than GFS. GEFS Ensemble is in agreement with the NAM.

[vci_guy2003]

what kind of precip if any are we looking at?

[mcheer23]

18Z HRRR valid noon Wednesday...

[jabcwb2]

I'll take 70 degrees!!!!!

[TexasBreeze]

I worked outside today and could enjoy it instead of being all bundled up and cold! Jason would like it!