February 2022

[Cpv17]

How cold for our area though

I’m not sure. It doesn’t actually show the temperatures on the GEFS on tropical tidbits. Look at the NAM though. It’s coming in faster and stronger with the cold. I would start paying attention to the NAM for timing and temperatures.

[Cpv17]

The NAM has the front coming through southeast TX in the late morning to early afternoon hours on Wednesday with temps quickly dropping into the 40’s behind it.

[Stratton20]

The 12z NAM brings in the cold air much sooner and also has wintry precip as far south as Austin/hill country area fwiw, this model will be one to watch closely

[Cpv17]

This is your typical case of the globals not handling shallow cold air correctly.

[Cpv17]

Definitely time to start paying attention to the mesoscale models. They look quite a bit different than the globals.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yeah I just saw a post by someone on facebook comparing the 12z NAM to the 12z Euro temperature maps at hour 84 and its quite a huge difference , maybe another surprise or two in store if the NAM is correct

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 yeah I just saw a post by someone on facebook comparing the 12z NAM to the 12z Euro temperature maps at hour 84 and its quite a huge difference , maybe another surprise or two in store if the NAM is correct

Check out the HRRR too.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I dont think the HRRR is in range yet since it only goes out 48 hours

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 I dont think the HRRR is in range yet since it only goes out 48 hours

It is in range in north Texas regarding the temperatures. Check it out compared to the NAM.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 ah I see! Wow thats definitely much colder than the global models and as cold as the NAM

[Cpv17]

Here is the NAM for Tuesday noon:



Here is the HRRR for the same time:



As you can see the HRRR is stronger and faster with the front. The globals will be playing catch up now. This was their typical case of having it in the long range, dropping it, and then trying to pick it back up at the last minute.

[DoctorMu]

12z GEFS is really cold!

GEFS and CMC are a lot more aggressive with the cold air in the last half of this week vs. GFS.

Euro has bought into cold air from Thursday = early March

[Andrew]

It could be interesting midweek as models continue to show the frontal boundary stalling across the central part of SE Texas. If the GFS is right on Thursday places like College Station could be in the 30s while the Houston area could be in the 70s. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised if the front does make it a little further south than forecasted. Sometimes models have trouble with the shallowness of these air masses, especially during February where warm air return isn't quite as strong as it is in March and April. Still, something to watch as we head into the middle part of the week, though it does look like the front should make it all the way through the coast by Friday as a secondary shortwave trough tracks east across the Central & Southern plains.

[DoctorMu]

This is your typical case of the globals not handling shallow cold air correctly.

Yeah, massive difference on the Euro between 850 and 2m. They may be on prevailing side. Wintry Mischief along the I-35 corridor.

[DoctorMu]

It could be interesting midweek as models continue to show the frontal boundary stalling across the central part of SE Texas. If the GFS is right on Thursday places like College Station could be in the 30s while the Houston area could be in the 70s. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised if the front does make it a little further south than forecasted. Sometimes models have trouble with the shallowness of these air masses, especially during February where warm air return isn't quite as strong as it is in March and April. Still, something to watch as we head into the middle part of the week, though it does look like the front should make it all the way through the coast by Friday as a secondary shortwave trough tracks east across the Central & Southern plains.

Yes, I've been expecting a massive temp gradient from NW to SE across the frontal boundary between Waco to CLL to HOU (80°F to 30°F). I expect the cold, shallow air to overperform as usual. Thursday could be interesting indeed.

Euro, CMC, Ensembles have the front blasting through Friday with cold progged to hang around until at least mid-week in early March.

[Stratton20]

Very interesting, how will this potentially affect precipitation if the cold air comes in quicker and stronger?( colder)

[walsean1]

It could be interesting midweek as models continue to show the frontal boundary stalling across the central part of SE Texas. If the GFS is right on Thursday places like College Station could be in the 30s while the Houston area could be in the 70s. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised if the front does make it a little further south than forecasted. Sometimes models have trouble with the shallowness of these air masses, especially during February where warm air return isn't quite as strong as it is in March and April. Still, something to watch as we head into the middle part of the week, though it does look like the front should make it all the way through the coast by Friday as a secondary shortwave trough tracks east across the Central & Southern plains.

Yes, I've been expecting a massive temp gradient from NW to SE across the frontal boundary between Waco to CLL to HOU (80°F to 30°F). I expect the cold, shallow air to overperform as usual. Thursday could be interesting indeed.

Euro, CMC, Ensembles have the front blasting through Friday with cold progged to hang around until at least mid-week in early March.

Is the cold going to stick around through March 3 and what would be the chances of seeing winter precipitation through this period?

[walsean1]

Here is the latest NOAA Temperature Outlook

[walsean1]

Here is the latest NOAA precipitation outlook

[Stratton20]

06z NAM is colder and has wintry precipitation farther south fwiw