February 2022

[Stratton20]

Im really liking what im seeing in the EPS and GEFS ensembles, they are suggesting we may stay below normal temps all the way into the first week of march

[Kingwood36]

Eh, I'm over the winter storms...it's always north of hwy 105 anyway..nobody will get anything but Stratton lol he has had enough this winter already

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 we got ICE from the last winter storm, that is nothing fun lol, did not make for a fun time and hey this storm on the model is 9 days out, expect changes

[Cromagnum]

I fully expect an early green up this year. And then a late March worthless frost to kill everything.

[DoctorMu]

I fully expect an early green up this year. And then a late March worthless frost to kill everything.

Up in CLL IMBY a couple of bushes and some roses are dead, but so are the weeds (for now). Texas weather giveth and taketh away!

[don]

12z GFS sure went crazy LOL.

[mcheer23]

12z GFS sure went crazy LOL.

I guess that's 2 runs in a row

[Stratton20]

12z GFS, looking beyond next week’s potential storm system, this is something that Pow Ponder mentioned in his video update yesterday, it appears we are going to be entering a sustained period of below normal temps as seen by the latest GFS run, winter is far from over, I know this is far out, but its pattern recognition

[mcheer23]

FWIW, CMC does show frozen precip next Thursday morning

[Stratton20]

12z GEFS with some decent support for a winter storm setup next week fwiw

[DoctorMu]

FWIW, CMC does show frozen precip next Thursday morning

12z GFS has snow down to about Hearne on the 28th.

[DoctorMu]

12z GFS sure went crazy LOL.

I almost forgot - I'll be up in Waco at a conference. I might see more snow after all.

[don]

The 12Z EURO has strong ridging in place keeping the cold air from moving through.Of course models typically underestimate the density of shallow cold air in this range though.

[Stratton20]

Don heck no to the Euro!

[Cpv17]

Yeah the southeast ridge holds up the cold air on the Euro.

[mcheer23]

[mcheer23]

The 12Z EURO has strong ridging in place keeping the cold air from moving through.Of course models typically underestimate the density of shallow cold air in this range though.

Yes, likely underestimating.

[Stratton20]

mcheer23 boy i sure do like that map

[Stratton20]

Man the 18z GEFS looks amazing, cold throughout its entire run well for the first 264 hours or so haha still not fully done running yet

[jasons2k]

NWS sure keeps trimming my rain chances for tomorrow night. Was 70%….60%….now 50%. Grrrrrr.

I wouldn’t expect much. Most of it should be north of our area. Consider yourself lucky if you can get a quarter inch.

Roller coaster forecast. Since this post, they raised it back up to 60%…then in the overnight package back up to 70% with “heavy rain” in the wording and the graphic (looking good, right?) only lower it back to 50% in today’s afternoon package. Ugh.