TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico

[CAK]

Is it me or is this thing back-tracking south and east?

[Andrew]

Once again GFS shows this storm making a loop back into the gulf briefly:

[srainhoutx]

HPC:

THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BOTH DISPLAYED SIGNIFICANT CONTINUITY CHANGES OVER THE PAST
DAY SO WOULD FAVOR LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS/ECMWF SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME. OVER THE SOUTH... THE ECMWF TRENDS TO THE WRN SIDE OF
THE SPREAD WITH THE GULF COAST FEATURE THAT INCORPORATES THE
REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS SOME
LIKELY FEEDBACK IN THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EXACT AMPLITUDE OF THE NRN STREAM TROF LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
DETERMINING WHETHER/WHEN THE GULF COAST FEATURE IS LIFTED NEWD.
AT THE VERY LEAST THE CANADIAN IS FAIRLY EXTREME WITH ITS TROF
AMPLIFICATION BY MID-LATE PERIOD SO THE CMC TIMING IS PROBABLY TOO
FAST. FOR MOST OF THE FCST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE AGREEABLE
00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS... WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT
FOR COMMON IDEAS OF OPERATIONAL SOLNS DAYS 3-4 MON-TUE AND TO
PROVIDE A COMPROMISE SOLN FOR THE WEAK LOW ALONG THE CNTRL GULF
COAST.

[srainhoutx]

The return of TD 5 is still showing up...12Z GFS @ hour 120...

[srainhoutx]

Hour 138 and still raining across SE TX...

[srainhoutx]

Still some interest via the Navy Predict page...

[SusieinLP]

Looks like lots of rain for the central Gulf coast....Kind of like an Allison type storm that wont go away....I saw the earlier posts of a model sending TD5 in our direction...Not sure I get how that would happen nor am I really concerned. I did hear the guy on FOx News this morning say we could get some rain from remnants of TD5 next week....Any thoughts on that particular model run or us getting any rain from this system??

[Andrew]

Looks like lots of rain for the central Gulf coast....Kind of like an Allison type storm that wont go away....I saw the earlier posts of a model sending TD5 in our direction...Not sure I get how that would happen nor am I really concerned. I did hear the guy on FOx News this morning say we could get some rain from remnants of TD5 next week....Any thoughts on that particular model run or us getting any rain from this system??

Pretty much every model is showing some type of loop back for Ex TD 5. Some take it back into the gulf while some keep it over land but what happens is the ridge to the north is eventually predicted to block this low from moving any farther north and kick it back south.




How far south and west it moves is still dependent on how strong the ridge becomes but it is defiantly something to watch for POSSIBLE redevelopment.

[biggerbyte]

The scenario involving S. E. Texas is quite plausable. As stated earlier, we really should consider this outcome as a very good possibilty. The ridge has always been sort of the unknown factor where Td5 is concerned, and in the realm of a hurricane season, tomorrow alway brings something new. Bad idea to write something off until a death certificate has been issued. I really hope this system either dies, or brings us some much needed rain, and does it soon. All this speculation is killing my patience. Lol

[kellybell4770]

The scenario involving S. E. Texas is quite plausable. As stated earlier, we really should consider this outcome as a very good possibilty. The ridge has always been sort of the unknown factor where Td5 is concerned, and in the realm of a hurricane season, tomorrow alway brings something new. Bad idea to write something off until a death certificate has been issued. I really hope this system either dies, or brings us some much needed rain, and does it soon. All this speculation is killing my patience. Lol

LOL - mine too!

[srainhoutx]

JB's take on the disturbance...

http://www.accuweather.com/video/558045 ... nesday.asp

[rnmm]

The scenario involving S. E. Texas is quite plausable. As stated earlier, we really should consider this outcome as a very good possibilty. The ridge has always been sort of the unknown factor where Td5 is concerned, and in the realm of a hurricane season, tomorrow alway brings something new. Bad idea to write something off until a death certificate has been issued. I really hope this system either dies, or brings us some much needed rain, and does it soon. All this speculation is killing my patience. Lol

IF this does occur, what time frame are we looking at?

[TexasMetBlake]

Cough...ALICIA...cough

[rnmm]

Cough...ALICIA...cough

OH that would not be a good scenario!!!

[biggerbyte]

Four to six days being in the area. Unknown strength at this time. I caution everyone to just keep an eye on the forecast as the next week progresses. We'll see how it all unfolds. I know it's frustrating for you guys. This year has brought so many different players into the fold. It has been sort of a crap shoot as to which solution would evolve. Pinning these systems down has been difficult, at best. So many ULLs getting in the way. One thing is for sure... Right now, if this system pushes back into the Gulf, it would have a clear path westward. The ridge will be in control.

[TexasMetBlake]

Cough...ALICIA...cough

OH that would not be a good scenario!!!

Alicia formed off a meso that moved off the Alabama coast. Alicia moved very slowly to the wsw and hooked around the periphery of the southeast ridge and into Houston/Galveston. Keep in mind that even if...and that's a BIG IF...Danielle formed, the size of the circulation and the fetch all are factors in how strong and bad a particular storm would be. Alicia ramped up quick because she was small. As we saw with Ike, an enormous hurricane, took days to wrap up.

[rnmm]

Cough...ALICIA...cough

OH that would not be a good scenario!!!

Alicia formed off a meso that moved off the Alabama coast. Alicia moved very slowly to the wsw and hooked around the periphery of the southeast ridge and into Houston/Galveston. Keep in mind that even if...and that's a BIG IF...Danielle formed, the size of the circulation and the fetch all are factors in how strong and bad a particular storm would be. Alicia ramped up quick because she was small. As we saw with Ike, an enormous hurricane, took days to wrap up.

Thank you. I know things do not always pan out, and in tropical weather, there is almost always BIG IF's with things especially track and strength, it is interesting to learn things.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro (500mb) has a weak disturbance traveling Westbound across the Northern Gulf and into TX on late Wednesday/early Thursday.

[TexasMetBlake]

Hmmmm, 12z Euro (Pay Attention, Houston)

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP096.gif (96 hours)

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP120.gif (120 hours...south of NOLA)

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP144.gif (144 hours...approaching Texas)

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP168.gif (168 hours...Houston)

[Mr. T]

Hmmmm, 12z Euro (Pay Attention, Houston)

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP096.gif (96 hours)

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP120.gif (120 hours...south of NOLA)

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP144.gif (144 hours...approaching Texas)

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... SLP168.gif (168 hours...Houston)

Check the timestamps. That is yesterday's run.