February 2022

[Stratton20]

Don definitely gotta give credit to the ICON. so far, most people tend to overlook the model but it has been so consistent in this outcome

[Stormlover2020]

What did gfs weather nerds show

[Stratton20]

Stormlover2020 no changes, 00z GFS is locked in

[ejburas]

What did gfs weather nerds show

Weathernerds.org

[don]

3Z RAP

[don]

It has .10+ inch of ice accumulation along and north of the 59 corridor.If that were to verify that would reach the criteria for winter storm warnings around here.

[Stratton20]

Definitely getting a little more concerned with the ice potential here,

[Cpv17]

It has .10+ inch of ice accumulation along and north of the 59 corridor.If that were to verify that would reach the criteria for winter storm warnings around here.

There’s still plenty of time for those totals to trend up or down. It’s still about 48 hours out. Right now if I was a betting man, I’d bet for those totals to go up and be more widespread judging by the latest trends in the past 24-36 hours.

[Stratton20]

00z CMC has slightly upped freezing rain totals from its last run🥶🥶

[walsean1]

It has .10+ inch of ice accumulation along and north of the 59 corridor.If that were to verify that would reach the criteria for winter storm warnings around here.

That type of ice would cause major issue. David Paul ch 11 mentioned that every run is coming in colder so that would mean I longer duration of frozen precipitation falling. Also they (ERCOT) mentioned that their could be power outages from cold weather demand.

[Kingwood36]

They added freezing rain to my grid

[Andrew]

Winter wx advisories have been posted for the NW part of the region as models yesterday and overnight have trended for additional moisture to linger behind. It should be interesting to see how far south the freezing line dips before moisture ends.

[Stratton20]

Interesting blake matthews just posted on twitter saying the cold air is arriving much quicker than what the models were showing for them, wonder what that could mean here ,interesting next 24 hours

[Kingwood36]

Interesting blake matthews just posted on twitter saying the cold air is arriving much quicker than what the models were showing for them, wonder what that could mean here ,interesting next 24 hours

That should mean the precip will be in the cold air longer than forecasted

[don]

12Z HRRR/9Z RAP ice accumulation

[walsean1]

David Paul mentioned last night that every model run is bringing the temperatures down quicker that anticipated

[davidiowx]

12Z HRRR/9Z RAP ice accumulation

Sheeeesh that is going to cause some power outages in central Texas. That is not going to be fun for those that get half an inch of ice on everything.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 021213
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
613 AM CST Wed Feb 2 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF ISSUANCE]...

Areas of patchy to dense fog will continue to result in a mix of
LIFR to MVFR cigs/vis across the SE Texas sites. Fog is expected
to begin to burn off shortly after sunrise and cigs will gradually
lift to MVFR with some sites possibly lifting for VFR later in
the afternoon. For GLS/LBX however, sea fog could continue to
result in reduced visibilites throughout the day. VRB winds at
5-10 KTS can be expected through this evening. An artic cold
front is progged to move across SE Texas this evening into early
Thursday morning. Chance for SHRA/TSRA will begin this afternoon
and continue well into Thursday. Some of the stronger storms this
evening into Thursday morning will be capable of producing strong
gusts, reduced vis due to locally heavy rainfall, as well as
frequent lightning. Expect strong N winds in the wake of the FROPA
with speeds ranging around 15-20 KTS and gusts of around 25 KTS.
There is chance of -FZRA and PL Thursday morning into Thursday
evening mainly for CLL/UTS as rain continues while temperatures
reach freezing. Chance of precipitation will begin to taper off
Thursday evening.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST Wed Feb 2 2022/

SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]...

Areas of patchy to dense fog that developed during the overnight
hours will continue to limit visibilites across portions of SE Texas
early this morning. If commuting this morning and encounter areas of
dense fog, remember to drive with your low lights on, slow down your
speed, and be aware of pedestrians or wildlife. Fog will gradually
burn off shortly after sunrise and clouds decks will rise during the
morning hours. However, areas near the bays and coastal waters could
experience periods of fog or haze throughout the day due to ongoing
development of sea fog.

For today, good WAA will result in a warmer and muggy day. GOES-16
TPWs around 3 AM this morning were a little less than an inch, but
that will quickly rise to around 1.2 to 1.4 inches today prior to
tonight`s much anticipated artic cold front. Expect maximum
temperatures this afternoon to reach the low to mid 70s over areas
along and south of I-10 corridor and in the upper 60s to low 70s
north of that. Enjoy these warmer temperatures, since it will only
last through this evening and may not get above 60s till next
Wednesday. Ahead of the front, expect showers and thunderstorms to
begin over the west and northwest portions of SE Texas this
afternoon and expand eastward across the rest of the local area as
the front approaches the region. The cold front is expected to cross
College Station and Huntsville areas near sunset, the Houston Metro
Area just before midnight CST, and the coastal areas around 2 to 3
AM CST. Behind the front, strong gusty northerly winds will develop
and temperatures will quickly dip. So much so, that temperatures
around sunrise will already be around 30 degrees lower for much of
SE Texas. Unfortunately, strong CAA during the day Thursday will not
allow for temperatures to warm up much, with our north and northwest
counties staying at or below freezing. Given that rain will continue
well into Thursday night for most of the local area, we can
anticipate that those counties will experience some wintry
precipitation throughout the day. Soundings still support mainly a
mix of rain and freezing rain with a slight chance of sleet/ice
pellets Thursday morning though Thursday evening. Given the
increased confidence of this forecast, issued a Winter Weather
Advisory for Burleson, Brazos, Houston, Madison, Washington, and
Grimes counties and will be in effect from 6 AM CST to 6 PM CST
Thursday. Now, the one difference in this forecast package is that
PoPs linger for a little longer along the central and southern
portions Thursday evening/night, and therefore, a slight chance of
freezing rain was added for these areas. Limited to no impacts are
expected, however.

As mentioned before, strong gusty winds will develop behind the
front, in particular over areas near the bays and Gulf waters. A
Wind Advisory may be required for the Barrier Islands and southern
counties for most of the day Thursday. In addition, with
temperatures dipping into the low 20s to low 30s Thursday night into
Friday morning, these strong gusty winds will bring down wind chill
values into the single digits to the teens for most of SE Texas. A
Wind Chill Advisory may be needed for the northern and western
counties and a Hard Freeze Watch for the northern and northwestern
counties.

24

LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...

By daybreak on Friday, the precipitation from the previous day`s
cold front will be off the coast, but cold conditions will stick
around for a few days. Temperatures will remain in the 20s for areas
north of I-10 and west of I-45 through the mid to late morning with
near freezing temperatures down to the coast. Breezy northerly winds
of 15-20mph with gusts to 25mph will continue through the early
afternoon bringing wind chill values down into the single digits
near College Station and into the 20s elsewhere. Wind Chill Advisory
will likely be needed through the early afternoon on Friday for the
northern third of the area. Afternoon high temperatures on Friday
will struggle to climb out of the mid to upper 30s for the northern
third of the area and out of the low 40s along the coast. Friday
night will be another night where a Hard Freeze warning may be
needed for Washington up through Houston County with lows dipping
down into the low 20s. Upper 20s to low 30s are expected elsewhere.

High pressure will be building over east Texas through the weekend
continuing the cool and dry weather. High temperatures on Saturday
will be in the mid to upper 40s, then into the mid 50s on Sunday.
Overnight lows will continue to be in the mid to upper 20s for areas
north of I-10 as clear skies allow for plenty of radiational
cooling. A weak upper level shortwave passing through the area on
Monday will bring an increase in cloud cover, so overnight lows
Monday night should climb back up into the 30s area wide, and even
up into the 40s along the coast. High pressure continues to dominate
through the rest of the week continuing the dry conditions with a
gradual warm up into the 60s by Wednesday.

Fowler

MARINE...

Patchy to areas of dense fog has formed over the Bays and near shore
waters that will likely continue until a cold front pushes through
early Thursday morning. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms
to develop across the coastal waters out ahead of the front as
early as this evening with lingering light precipitation
continuing through Thursday afternoon. While the cold front`s
passage brings an end to the fog threat, it will usher in a strong
northerly winds and elevated seas. A Gale Warning is in effect
across Matagorda Bay and the Gulf Waters starting 6am Thursday as
sustained winds of 25 to 35kts and gusts to 40 to 45kts develop
across the area. Galveston Bay is under a Small Craft Advisory
currently as it should not have as gusty winds, but this may need
to be upgraded to a Gale Warning in later updates. The increased
winds will lead to seas climbing to 8 to 11ft with occasional
higher seas. Conditions begin to improve on Friday to Small Craft
Advisories for Friday into Saturday with conditions finally
improving below caution levels by Saturday night. The strong and
persistent offshore flow will also lead to low tides down to
around 0.5 to 1ft below MLLW Thursday night into Friday.

Fowler

PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 1125 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022/...

AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...

IFR and LIFR conditions now more common across Southeast Texas
than VFR as flight conditions degrade. Worst will be for coastal
terminals - including as far inland as HOU - as sea fog rolls in
from the cool Gulf waters. Should see some improvement in
conditions late in the morning, only to see rain move in from
northwest to southeast later this afternoon and tonight ahead of
and along a strong winter cold front sweeping into Southeast
Texas.

CLIMATE...

Here are the record rainfall numbers and year of occurrence for
Wednesday and Thursday.

-CLL: 3.80"/1919 on Wednesday (2/2), 4.11"/2012 on Thursday (2/3)
-IAH: 1.70"/1896 on Wednesday (2/2), 1.82"/1992 on Thursday (2/3)
-HOU: 0.94"/1959 on Wednesday (2/2), 2.40"/1992 on Thursday (2/3)
-GLS: 1.22"/1888 on Wednesday (2/2), 3.55"/1992 on Thursday (2/3)

Note...
-CLL`s records (City of College Station date back to 1883.
-IAH`s records (City of Houston) date back to 1889.
-HOU`s records (Houston Hobby) date back to 1931.
-GLS`s records (City of Galveston) date back to 1872.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 32 37 22 35 / 60 90 80 10 0
Houston (IAH) 74 42 49 30 41 / 30 90 80 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 69 49 56 35 43 / 20 90 80 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following
zones: Austin...Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...
Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...
Fort Bend...Galveston Island...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Montgomery...Northern
Liberty...San Jacinto...Southern Liberty...Waller...Wharton.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for the
following zones: Brazos...Burleson...Grimes...Houston...
Madison...Washington.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Gale Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 6 PM CST Friday for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Matagorda Bay...Waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...
Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 PM CST Friday for
the following zones: Galveston Bay.

&&

$$

[Texashawk]

Looking at winds from weather stations, it looks like the front is already just north of CS. Why are they saying it won’t get there until 6 PM?

[Kingwood36]

Looking at winds from weather stations, it looks like the front is already just north of CS. Why are they saying it won’t get there until 6 PM?

Over preforming what the models said how long it would take..these shallow air masses always do