February 2022

[Iceresistance]

ABC13 in Houston posted this

https://youtu.be/mA1pwlpdpog

[bdog38]

Weather channel for katy thursday night
27°
38%
NNW 19 mph
Cloudy with some light freezing rain after midnight. Low 27F. Winds NNW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of precip 40%.

Humidity
81%
UV Index

[Cpv17]

Weather channel for katy thursday night
27°
38%
NNW 19 mph
Cloudy with some light freezing rain after midnight. Low 27F. Winds NNW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of precip 40%.

Humidity
81%
UV Index

Imagine the wind chills. That’s going to be brutal.

[Stratton20]

NWS says 70% of freezing rain/sleet for me with a high of 35-37 with 20 mph out of the north, man that is going to be brutal🥶🥶

[DoctorMu]

Hearne currently has wintry mix in the forecast. That 37°F in CLL will be in the morning Thursday. It will be dropping into the 20s by the afternoon.

[tireman4]

FXUS64 KHGX 011749
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1149 AM CST Tue Feb 1 2022

.AVIATION...

For the 18Z TAFs, weak surface low is just off the coast to the E of
GLS. Mainly MVFR cloud deck is rotating around the low`s center and
spreading across SE TX and area TAF sites. Have the MVFR deck remaining
in place this afternoon then lowering to MVFR/IFR this evening and
overnight with light winds. Conditions will be favorable for fog development
too. Have IFR ceilings lifting to MVFR by 16Z tomorrow, but that might
end up being too soon. Have VCSH in for IAH 18-24Z tomorrow, but much
better SHRA/TSRA chances will come tomorrow night and on into Thursday
morning with the approach and passage of a strong cold front. 42

&&

[DoctorMu]

UKMet update. Similar to last run. Watch for icy bridges Thursday and Friday am.

[Stormlover2020]

What about icon 18z and rgem

[don]

Good discussion from HGX.They're keeping an eye on the possibility of frozen precip further south towards the coast.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...

By the time Thursday morning rolls around, the strong cold front
will be off of the coast and with plentiful CAA behind it, we`ll see
temperatures steadily decreasing throughout the day. Rain will still
be in abundance with lingering moisture behind the cold front due in
part to favorable jet mechanics for upper-level divergence (right
entrance region of a jet streak). With both of these factors in
mind, confidence is increasing on wintry precipitation for our
northern/northwestern counties (north of a Columbus-Huntsville-
Groveton line) on Thursday morning/afternoon. Thermal profiles
continue to support freezing rain with a warm nose of 6,000+ feet
with temperatures within this layer well above the 4 degree Celsius
threshold for complete melting. Still leaning towards there being a
very small wind (1-3 hours) for ice pellets to mix in towards the
afternoon hours. The 850mb front passes through on Thursday
afternoon and knocks down the max temperature of the warm nose to
about 3 degree Celsius. At the same time, the surface cold layer
will continue to deepen. Now this won`t be a transition into all ice
pellets, but likely freezing rain with some ice pellets mixing in,
and this would be for the very northern fringes of the CWA (College
Station and northward). The exact southern edge of the winter
precipitation is still in question and will be a product of how
quickly cold air funnels in.

As far as any accumulations go, with temperatures reaching the 70s
the day prior (Wednesday), the grounds will be too warm to
accumulate ice. However, bridges, overpasses, and metal surfaces are
a different story. So far in the grids, we have around 0.01" of ice
accumulation for our northern/northwestern locations. Since the Euro
has been consistent with a lingering band of moisture pushing
southward into Thursday night and Friday, it is worth a mention. If
moisture hangs around long enough, there is a (small) potential for
precipitation closer to the coast. PWATs will still be around 0.9"-
1.1" along the coast, and with upper-level divergence and PVA
persisting, it is feasible for some of this moisture to be lifted
for additional precipitation to develop. As far as what kind of
precipitation, it`s too early to tell, but there is good saturation
in the dendritic growth zone. However, there`s a deep dry and warm
layer from 700-900 mb so snowflakes falling into this would likely
melt and evaporate. The question is, could there be enough falling
to move the temperatures in the elevated warm layer towards the wet
bulb. With ALL of that uncertainty, I`ve kept out any mention of
this scenario in the grids...but something to keep an eye on once we
get more data in the range of Hi-Res models.

[Stratton20]

18z RGEM

[Stormlover2020]

Weather nerds graphics seem better

[don]

18Z ICON

[Stratton20]

18z GFS shows what could be a mess for our NW counties

[Stormlover2020]

Still have tonight and tomorrow baby

[don]

Yep, 18Z GFS trending towards some of the other models and looks similar to the ICON,looks like a jet streak is what causes the band of precip the models are picking up on Thursday night.

[Kingwood36]

Well damn I figured we wouldn't get anything near the coast but now it's looking likely...Hopefully they cancel work

[Stratton20]

Im growing more confident that we might see some type of advisory issued tommorow, good model support, definitely could be a sneaky setup

[Kingwood36]

Im growing more confident that we might see some type of advisory issued tommorow, good model support, definitely could be a sneaky setup

Well we know damn good and well you will

[Stratton20]

FWIW a good majority of the 18z GEFS members show the same setup as the icon , cmc and rgem models

[jasons2k]

He showed this map but then just practically glossed over it and said "it's not out of the question that we could see some glazing in spots." Really downplayed the whole event.

If that map verified, that would be pretty bad news in those shaded areas. Those are some hefty accumulations in places. 1/2 - 3/4" of ice on those pine trees would be a lot more trouble than 'some glazing in spots'...