February 2022

[DoctorMu]

UKMET has a band of up to 4” of snow across southeast TX.

Yep. Or more likely sleet.

[869MB]

If the 06Z GFS is to be trusted, NW areas of the Houston metro area may see some limited mixed precipitation as the moisture is moving out of the region on Thursday evening...

GFS SOUNDING - INIT 06Z 1.31.2022 - VALID FOR 00Z 2.4.2022.png

[Stratton20]

Its not looking good for any wintry mischief potential beyond this system, it appears the Euro and GFS have backed off on any distubances coming through in the saturday/sunday time frame.

[redneckweather]

Grasping at straws on the wintry weather down here...not gonna happen. Maybe a stray sleet pellet but it will be plenty cold....great jogging westher.

[Andrew]

The latest couple of runs from the GFS have trended towards the ECMWF solution with a slightly more modified airmass pushing through the region. The upper-level trough continues to flatten out with a large chunk of the energy shearing off over New Mexico into western Texas. Both models indicate that low-level clouds will also probably stick around throughout the weekend so we might not see as drastic of lows as once anticipated. Often the case with these types of shallow air masses those out west will see the coldest air with a more modified version further east. While I still anticipate a freeze for most of the region, a hard freeze may be avoided for the Houston Metro region at least depending on how cloud cover plays out. Those further west could still see temps in the mid to low 20s for Friday and Saturday morning. Frozen precip still looks like a Hill Country & North Texas issue but we will see if we can get any additional lift on Friday or Saturday as the remaining shortwave trough pushes through.

[Cpv17]

The latest couple of runs from the GFS have trended towards the ECMWF solution with a slightly more modified airmass pushing through the region. The upper-level trough continues to flatten out with a large chunk of the energy shearing off over New Mexico into western Texas. Both models indicate that low-level clouds will also probably stick around throughout the weekend so we might not see as drastic of lows as once anticipated. Often the case with these types of shallow air masses those out west will see the coldest air with a more modified version further east. While I still anticipate a freeze for most of the region, a hard freeze may be avoided for the Houston Metro region at least depending on how cloud cover plays out. Those further west could still see temps in the mid to low 20s for Friday and Saturday morning. Frozen precip still looks like a Hill Country & North Texas issue but we will see if we can get any additional lift on Friday or Saturday as the remaining shortwave trough pushes through.

Global models almost always seem to underestimate the cold though…

[sambucol]

https://youtu.be/EuxbTsTmLo0

[djmike]

I was just about to say the temps the nws shows Thursday Friday and Saturday are nowhere near the cold we were talking about for Beaumont. Just saw the post above that it isn’t as strong as we thought except western areas. Lowest for Beaumont is 30. No biggie. Winter precipitation? We might as well move on to the next. This weekend is nothing we haven’t already seen this winter. On to the next…

[Stratton20]

djmike I agree with you, next, nothing interesting showing up in the models , this winter has been meh at best, very uneventful, maybe next year,

[Kingwood36]

Damn, mood changed quickly from overnight optimism to doom and gloom by morning lol gotta love weather

[Stratton20]

I think a Pro Met might have to answer this, but I just watched a live weather update from KHOU and they showed this mornings GFS run which on their future cast shows wintry precip getting extremely close into SE Texas, but I checked the GFS run on weatherbell and it does not show that, this is a bit confusing, not sure what to believe

[don]

You're reading too much into individual model runs and taking them too verbatim. You'll drive yourself crazy if you live and die by each model run...

[Stratton20]

Don hey man im just asking why it looks so different compared to what I see on a site, im not trying to get on anyones nerves here

[Kingwood36]

You're reading too much into individual model runs and taking them too verbatim. You'll drive yourself crazy if you live and die by each model run...

Facts! Each run will kill ya lol

[walsean1]

It is funny how Chita Johnson on KHOU 11 shows this feature and other people say forget it. I’ll just wait until Wednesday forecast and Model runs and we will see what happens. Let’s remember, we live in a predominantly warm climate. We should not expect to see any Winter precipitation like the states north of us. Cold temp we will alway get.

[Stratton20]

I apologize if im annoying anyone, as a young college student who is very much enthusiastic about weather, I do have a tendency as Don pointed out to get “too glued” to model runs , I am no way trying to annoy anyone here! Im not like that (Tropikal” troll dude in the prior forums haha, just a fan of winter/ wintry precip kinda weather!

[sambucol]

Stratton read Larry Cosgrove’s post from this morning.

https://www.facebook.com/615925234/post ... 45235/?d=n

[Kingwood36]

I apologize if im annoying anyone, as a young college student who is very much enthusiastic about weather, I do have a tendency as Don pointed out to get “too glued” to model runs , I am no way trying to annoy anyone here! Im not like that (Tropikal” troll dude in the prior forums haha, just a fan of winter/ wintry precip kinda weather!

Well you already annoyed me by getting the first batch of frozen precipitation a week or so ago..soooooo there's that but you're good man lol

[don]

In addition to the weekend we still need to watch Thursday also.Some models are starting to show more energy lagging behind the cold front than earlier.

[DoctorMu]

Lows of 20 and 22 still predicted here in CLL. 06z and 12z GFS have their transition line near CLL.

The models really botched the last wintry system. We shall see.