January 2022

[jasons2k]

Figures…

[DoctorMu]

Rain-snow line for Thursday's front and storms is about I-35 on GFS and CMC and drifting in the models slightly east-southeastward. Stay tuned!

11 inches of snow on GFS for Granbury. It's going to be in the 30s all day here in CLL thrusday.

It might as well snow because cold rain does suck anyway. C'mon down!

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu the 12z Euro has some pretty heavy sleet/freezing rain in college station

[DoctorMu]

DoctorMu the 12z Euro has some pretty heavy sleet/freezing rain in college station

Yep - we're right on the edge. There's enough energy and cold air. Got to get the timing just right.

[txsnowmaker]

DoctorMu the 12z Euro has some pretty heavy sleet/freezing rain in college station

Yep - we're right on the edge. There's enough energy and cold air. Got to get the timing just right.

You can have it. We don’t want that freezing rain/ice mess down in Houston.

[DoctorMu]

I'm not rolling the dice for ice, my friend! The 4 letter word: SNOW

Trend is your friend on UKMet:

[Stratton20]

Trust me I dont want ice here either, my apartment is surrounded by concrete pathways and roads, that spells big time trouble for any ice accumulations, id practically be stuck in my apartment lol

[Cpv17]

Bad trends for Monday. Was really wanting some good rain and storms. Looks to be more towards Victoria now.

[don]

Models actually trended more east today with Mondays system than yesterday when they trended west.

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 31 2022 - 12Z Tue Feb 01 2022

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON MONDAY...

21Z Update...

A rather potent mid level trough coupled with a strong southerly
jet bringing in plenty of Gulf moisture along with modest
instability will lead to scattered flash flooding for portions of
southeast TX, especially the more urbanized locations like
Houston. Models have trended upwards from the previous issuance
with latest guidance showing 3-5" of QPF for the period most of
which falls within those first 12hrs. As the previous forecast
discussion mentioned, the lower FFG may help delay the flooding,
but AHPS does show areas of well above normal precipitation over
the past few weeks. Models reach 1-2"/hr rates at times which if
produced over the same areas, could lead to scattered flash
flooding. With this in mind, have opted to introduce a Slight Risk
for this area and expand the Marginal Risk area a bit in alignment
of latest forecast and model guidance.

Chiari

[Cpv17]

Models actually trended more east today with Mondays system than yesterday when they trended west.

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 PM EST Sat Jan 29 2022

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 31 2022 - 12Z Tue Feb 01 2022

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON MONDAY...

21Z Update...

A rather potent mid level trough coupled with a strong southerly
jet bringing in plenty of Gulf moisture along with modest
instability will lead to scattered flash flooding for portions of
southeast TX, especially the more urbanized locations like
Houston. Models have trended upwards from the previous issuance
with latest guidance showing 3-5" of QPF for the period most of
which falls within those first 12hrs. As the previous forecast
discussion mentioned, the lower FFG may help delay the flooding,
but AHPS does show areas of well above normal precipitation over
the past few weeks. Models reach 1-2"/hr rates at times which if
produced over the same areas, could lead to scattered flash
flooding. With this in mind, have opted to introduce a Slight Risk
for this area and expand the Marginal Risk area a bit in alignment
of latest forecast and model guidance.

Chiari

I saw the NAM and HRRR have it more focused towards Victoria.

[don]

The 18Z NAM does, but most of the models have the bulls eye further east. And the HRRR doesn't go out far enough yet to see how the MCS evolves, it stops when the MCS starts to come together.

[jasons2k]

What a beautiful day!! Even better tomorrow. Enjoy this weekend - it’s about as good as it gets around here.

[Andrew]

GFS and other global models have shifted north with the surface low and more of Central SE Texas looks under the bullseye. GFS is showing a pretty good chunk of the region receiving a quick 2-3 inches. Obviously, we won't know the exact specifics until a couple of hours out but something to watch going into Monday.

[don]

Stay weather aware tomorrow.

[jasons2k]

From earlier this PM..

Mesoscale models are coming into play now. Houston Metro seems to be on the edge.

[Cpv17]

From earlier this PM..

Mesoscale models are coming into play now. Houston Metro seems to be on the edge.

The 0z HRRR just finished running and it has 5-10” across Wharton County.

[don]

Looks like a MesoLow may develop tomorrow, i wonder if they will issue a flash flood watch if the HRRR continues to show those qpf amounts.

[869MB]

FYI...The 06Z NAM 12km has shifted the more significant rainfall accumulations toward the Houston Metro area for Monday as compared to the 00Z run:

[869MB]

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 AM EST Mon Jan 31 2022

Day 1
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 31 2022 - 12Z Tue Feb 01 2022

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

There will be the potential for heavy to excessive rainfall over
portions of Texas as a rather potent mid level trough taps an
increasingly moisture rich atmosphere as it approaches the Gulf of
Mexico. Maintained the Slight Risk area with only minor
adjustments based on the latest WPCQPF and the
deterministic/ensemble guidance. The numerical guidance has been
pretty steady in depicting isolated maximum values in the 3 to 5+
inch range with enough ingredients to support some local 1 to 2
inch per hour rates closer to the coastline. That region has the
best overlap between the precipitable water values at or above
1.25 inches...moisture flux in the 1000 to 850 mb layer peaking at
nearly 2 standardized anomalies greater than climatology during
the late afternoon and early evening and best low level jet.
Flash flood guidance is generally in excess of 2.5 inches per hour
and 4 inches per 3 hours. Some rainfall rates may be enough to
challenge the hourly flash flood guidance...with urbanized
urbanized areas being more vulnerable to problems of runoff and
flash flooding. The potential for excessive rainfall will
gradually decrease from west to east as the upper system makes its
way out over the Gulf of Mexico.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

[869MB]

As of 4 am, the 06Z NAM 3km is a little closer to reality in my opinion as compared to the 06Z NAM 12km as of this time with respect to what they're each depicting vs. the current radar reflectivity...

Btw, the 06Z NAM 3km keeps the highest rainfall accumulations totals centered slightly off to the west of the Houston metro area...