February 2022

[Kingwood36]

Euro

[Kingwood36]

Hmmmm

[don]

Its actually pretty significant that the Euro caved and is now showing a storm again.After the last several runs have been completely dry in the post frontal air over the state.Looks like all major models are onboard now, just a question of specifics such as precip type and how far south the frozen precip will get in the state.It also has a cutoff low sitting over Mexico next weekend like the GFS and CMC.

[Kingwood36]

What's it looking like down here for the fri-sun time line since wed and thur is looking like nothing down here but rain

[txsnowmaker]

Its actually pretty significant that the Euro caved and is now showing a storm again.After the last several runs have been completely dry in the post frontal air over the state.Looks like all major models are onboard now, just a question of specifics such as precip type and how far south the frozen precip will get in the state.It also has a cutoff low sitting over Mexico next weekend like the GFS and CMC.

That could be interesting. Thanks for all your insights here. You’re helping to get our focus on the weekend rather than Thursday for those of us here in the Houston area interested in possibilities of winter weather beyond feeezing rain.

[DoctorMu]

Its actually pretty significant that the Euro caved and is now showing a storm again.After the last several runs have been completely dry in the post frontal air over the state.Looks like all major models are onboard now, just a question of specifics such as precip type and how far south the frozen precip will get in the state.It also has a cutoff low sitting over Mexico next weekend like the GFS and CMC.

Yep. Setting up as expected for a CLL, North of Hwy 1*5 event again.

BTHO Warm Nose!

[don]

What's it looking like down here for the fri-sun time line since wed and thur is looking like nothing down here but rain

Still cant rule out us getting freezing rain over metro Houston on Thursday though (the euro gets too close for comfort).For right now models are dry over the weekend, but with that cutoff low siting to our west that may easily change.Its still going to be a few days before we know more specifics.We'll just have to watch the trends.Expect changes in the forecast this coming week.

[djmike]

And Beaumont gets left out of all the wintery fun according to models. Bummer.

[Cpv17]

And Beaumont gets left out of all the wintery fun according to models. Bummer.

Expect a lot of changes in the coming days.

[Stratton20]

Yup as CPV17 said expect changed, as seen on the euro, that winter storm gets so close to Houston, all it takes is a little trend in those temps being colder and that wintry precip gets further south

[don]

From HGX this afternoon

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Saturday]...

Forecast remains mostly unchanged for the Monday through Saturday time
period. On Monday, the upper trof and surface low will move across the
region and bring rain with embedded showers and thunderstorms to all
of the area. Based on the current forecast track, highest rain chances
and rainfall totals still look to be setting up around and to the south
of a College Station to Matagorda Bay line. Rainfall totals for Monday
through Monday night range from 1/4 to 1/2 inch far northeast areas
to 1 to 3 inches in/around the far southern counties/Matagorda Bay
area. Locally heavier rainfall will be possible (still thinking someone/
somewhere could see 3 to 6 inch numbers, if everything lines up right).
System will move on out of the area Monday night, but some lingering
rains could hold on into Tuesday morning/afternoon mainly to the north
of Interstate 10. Things quiet down Tuesday night, but rains return
to the forecast on Wednesday and Wednesday night ahead of and with
the arctic cold front that will move through the area. Significantly
colder temperatures can be expected behind this front with lows Thursday
morning possibly flirting with the freezing mark across our far north
and northwest areas. Any lingering moisture Thursday morning could have
the potential to become frozen in/around these areas, but not confident
enough at this time to carry it in the forecast. Very cold temperatures
along with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will then persist through the
end of the week and on into the weekend with lows in the 20s/30s and
highs in the 40s/50s. We will also need to keep an eye on where the
southwest flow aloft sets up and how active it becomes as any weak
disturbances moving across our cold airmass in the late night through
early morning hours could lead to another chance of frozen precipitation,
especially Thursday night through Friday morning.

[Stratton20]

18z GFS is still close for SE Texas, but mainly NW counties would see frozen precip on this run

[Stratton20]

18z GEFS is pretty much locked in at this point

[Cpv17]

Yeah it’s not looking that great for southeast TX right now if you want a winter storm but there’s a lot of time left to go.

[don]

Yea i noticed an uptake in 18Z GEFS ensembles showing ice to the coast.We're still not out of the woods for Thursday.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 it depends on where in SE Texas you are, seems like NW counties have the highest chance to see some wintry precipitation

[Kingwood36]

It's always the NW counties lol

[Kingwood36]

Looks like it's a north Texas event

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 not so fast, still plenty of time for things to change

[djmike]

The angle everything traverses across Texas, Beaumont is the last place in Texas to get any winter precipitation seems like. Houston has a better chance than I do. Lots can change so we will see.