January 2022

[Kingwood36]

I remember alot of times..experts say nothing here but then when it starts to fall from the sky it's always "well models were showing temps above freezing obviously that's not the case"..lol

[DoctorMu]

Almost always - in these shallow arctic setups - when the models are trending colder than the official forecast, the models win.

Jason is spot on this....

The cold air has overperformed like crazy over the last 4-5 years.

[Stratton20]

Dang the Nam went crazy on that run!

[Kingwood36]

Not buying it but dayummmm NAM is crazy...wxman57 is still stead fast that he isn't buying the nam at all..cold rain and maybe a melting sleet pellet

He says cold temps for Houston will be the problem..doesn't think it will be cold enough..he believes the NAM is to cold with its forecast temps

[Stratton20]

I trust the NAM more than I trust what that dude has to say

[TexasBreeze]

I would say the model is overdoing the amounts, but there is more support for more than cold rain with a sleet pellet. If I remember it overdid the amounts last February. Hard to remember though.

[Iceresistance]

Not buying it but dayummmm NAM is crazy...wxman57 is still stead fast that he isn't buying the nam at all..cold rain and maybe a melting sleet pellet

He says cold temps for Houston will be the problem..doesn't think it will be cold enough..he believes the NAM is to cold with its forecast temps

Most of that is Sleet & Ice, compare the TT GIF to Pivotal Weather.

[Kingwood36]

18z NAM Ice Accumulations

[Stratton20]

That would be brutal

[Kingwood36]

I noticed Victoria has a wintery mix in their forecast area..why does hou/gav always wait till the last dsmn minute to mention it here? When Victoria is even further south then us?

[tireman4]

I noticed Victoria has a wintery mix in their forecast area..why does hou/gav always wait till the last dsmn minute to mention it here? When Victoria is even further south then us?

Give them time. I can say, over the years, that the HGX folks are more conservative on events. That being said, I would say they are being prudent. Now Steve can answer more to this.

[jerryh421]

I noticed Victoria has a wintery mix in their forecast area..why does hou/gav always wait till the last dsmn minute to mention it here? When Victoria is even further south then us?

They have it for my area - I live near Downtown.

[Iceresistance]

I noticed Victoria has a wintery mix in their forecast area..why does hou/gav always wait till the last d**n minute to mention it here? When Victoria is even further south then us?

Victoria has a lower chance of snow, & I don't think they expected this to show up in the forecast anytime soon

EDIT: Why do I always say 'snow'?

[srainhoutx]

WPC updated afternoon Winter Weather Discussion:

Gulf Coast to the Southern Mid Atlantic...
Day 3...
Previously noted cold front will continue to drop farther
southeast, settling into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on
Thursday. By late Thursday, a positively-tilted upper trough
amplifying over the southern Plains and northern Mexico will
support precipitation developing in the shallow arctic air north
of the front. By Thursday evening, a wintry mix, including
freezing rain is possible across portions of South-Central Texas
before spreading farther south into South Texas and east along the
Texas Coast. This wintry mix is expected to continue to spread
farther east Friday morning, impacting portions of southern
Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Latest WPC probabilities
show 30 percent or greater probabilities for accumulating ice as
far south as southern Louisiana on Friday.

On Friday, an amplifying northern stream wave moving across the
Ohio Valley, along with increasing low-to-mid level frontogenesis,
is expected to support precipitation developing well to the
northwest of the surface boundary. A strong arctic high centered
over the Northeast, ridging south through the Mid Atlantic, may
set the stage for another wintry mix, including accumulating ice,
across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia on Friday. WPC
probabilities indicate that accumulating ice is likely from
central South Carolina through the eastern Carolinas, with a
significant threat for accumulations of 0.10 inch or more centered
over southeastern North Carolina. Still a great deal of
uncertainty going forward, with significant model spread regarding
the strength and track of a low developing along the front, and
off of the Southeast to Mid Atlantic Coast late in the period.

Pereira

[Texashawk]

And yet none of the main meteorologists in the area appear the least concerned. Clearly they’re seeing something to dampen their concerns, especially since we’re within 2-3 days of the event.

[Kingwood36]

And yet none of the main meteorologists in the area appear the least concerned. Clearly they’re seeing something to dampen their concerns, especially since we’re within 2-3 days of the event.

They are even more conservative than HGX

[srainhoutx]

Updated WPC graphic

[Kingwood36]

David Paul just mentioned it on tv

[Stratton20]

The 18z GEFS is practically screaming “ Winter Storm!”

[txsnowmaker]

NWS with 30% chance of wintry mix in metro Houston Thursday night.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... ec6mBZMHDs