January 2022

[don]

Were in range of the mesoscale models now, and they look similar to the Canadian.The NAM and RGEM look to be onboard with a winter storm this Thursday.

Then why is wxman57 saying not a snow balls chance in hell

To be fair i think he was referring to snow.Which doesn't look to be on the table with this setup. Looks like a sleet/freezing rain event.He did mention a chance of sleet for Houston though.But he is very conservative when it comes to winter events down here(which makes since),don't expect him to get onboard until there is more model data supporting the event.

[Kingwood36]

Despite what the ensembles say...57 aka the messiah has spoken

"GFS and European overnight model runs have something to say about this week and next week. I'm just the messenger, and this is not necessarily my forecast (yet)"

I mean we weren't looking at snow here anyway. Probably more frzing rain and sleet but he just disregards the ensembles and sticks with the ops..

You really don't care for him do you.

It's not that I don't like him lol I just think he goes overboard sometimes

[TexasBreeze]

Sleet events seem to over perform when precip comes into drier cold air. Sleeted to the west of here last week when models didn't show anything. They usually don't accumulate, but it is cool to see.

[Stratton20]

Interesting! I think we should just ignore the operational GFS, man has this model been absolutely trash , imo it is really struggling right now and should not be paid much attention to

[don]

The good news is that models seem to finally be converging. Its looking more and more like we will have disturbances moving through the area Thursday night into Friday morning in the post frontal cold air.With a even stronger disturbance possibly moving in over the weekend. The main difference between the models now, is the temperature profile.Due to the shallow nature of the air were dealing with I would expect temps to trend colder over the next few days.

[Stratton20]

Don why do you think the operational GFS is having a hard time coming on board with the other models?

[Iceresistance]

Don why do you think the operational GFS is having a hard time coming on board with the other models?

(I may not be Don, but I may have a good explanation on why)

It appears that the GFS is not complying very well with the GEFS right now. And there is too much uncertainly with the storm system to the GFS.

[TexasBreeze]

Even in the gfs the wet bulb temp is so close that a couple degrees cooler and the precip could cool to the dew point creating more sleet at the onset of precip. Snow isn't likely due to a stout warm nose above and heavier precip would tend to warm up the air.

[don]

Don why do you think the operational GFS is having a hard time coming on board with the other models?

Its normal, the global models don't have a high enough resolution, so they tend to struggle with shallow cold air.When it comes to these borderline winter precip events around here, the mesoscale models will usually do better job at detecting temps and precipitation.Nothing is set in stone yet though, and we still can end up with a cold rain or no moisture at all.

[don]

Even in the gfs the wet bulb temp is so close that a couple degrees cooler and the precip could cool to the dew point creating more sleet at the onset of precip. Snow isn't likely due to a stout warm nose above and heavier precip would tend to warm up the air.

Yep that's one thing ive noticed with the models is the low dewpoints over the area. The dry air can backfire of course, but it also leaves the door open for colder temps through evaperative cooling in these borderline situations that can help big time.
Edit: The GFS gets so close to another winter event on Friday night/Saturday with the main system. Temps are borderline in the upper 30s with dewpoints in the low 20s and teens at the start,with moisture overrunning.Great setup for evaperative cooling to take place.

[don]

From HGX morning discussion.

Things aren`t just interesting on the warm side of the front,
either! The front will move offshore Wednesday night, but appears
that it will get hung up close enough that while colder and drier,
we don`t look to scour out the area with cold, dry air like we did
this past weekend. Instead, some moisture will hang around, and
multiple weak vort maxes will stream across the area to keep
unsettled weather in the picture through the back half of the
week. For the most part, this should take the form of a smattering
of light rain showers...but...that may not describe everything. As
I`ve discussed at length the last several days, where we get
sufficient overlap of lingering moisture and cold air, some sleet
or snow showers could mix in with some of those rain showers.

I continue to think the NBM is getting too aggressive with that
overlap, and the result shows potential for accumulating snow for
most of Southeast Texas. So, while I remain leery of THAT much
wintry potential, I`ve gotten to the point where I can`t really
ignore our northwestern corner of the forecast area anymore.
So...very begrudgingly and reluctantly, I introduce a slight
chance of (non-accumulating!) mixed rain/snow in that northwest
corner Thursday night and Friday night. So if you`re in/around
places like Caldwell, College Station, Brenham, and
such...wherever I do have sufficient PoPs Thursday and Friday
night, I do also mention a mix of rain and snow. Elsewhere...just
rain! Like so many of our winter weather setups, so much of this
rides along a knife edge, and any change to the forecast has big
implications on precip type. So don`t be surprised if the forecast
appears to change more than usual this week.

[Kingwood36]

Hwy 105...only a matter of time before it gets mentioned

[Stratton20]

12z Euro

[don]

12Z Euro trending towards wintry precip in the area on Thursday.Showing a rain/sleet or snow mix.

[Kingwood36]

Can't deny it now..pretty much on board except the Ole gfs operational

[DoctorMu]

Livin' and dyin' north of Hwy 1*5 Dance with me, Dance with me Tropical Tidbits...


So...very begrudgingly and reluctantly, I introduce a slight
chance of (non-accumulating!) mixed rain/snow in that northwest
corner Thursday night and Friday night. So if you`re in/around
places like Caldwell, College Station, Brenham, and
such...wherever I do have sufficient PoPs Thursday and Friday
night, I do also mention a mix of rain and snow.

[Kingwood36]

Livin' and dyin' north of Hwy 1*5 Dance with me, Dance with me Tropical Tidbits...


So...very begrudgingly and reluctantly, I introduce a slight
chance of (non-accumulating!) mixed rain/snow in that northwest
corner Thursday night and Friday night. So if you`re in/around
places like Caldwell, College Station, Brenham, and
such...wherever I do have sufficient PoPs Thursday and Friday
night, I do also mention a mix of rain and snow.

tolllllld yaaaa...but I think everyone *might* get a little something

[djmike]

What are the models showing for the Beaumont area? Are we included on the “possible” fun whether it be snow, sleet or ice?

[Stratton20]

djmike right now models are showing just rain for yall, but that could easily change, its gonna be an interesting next 2 days

[Kingwood36]

It's going to be close call for just about everyone. Everything has to come together at the right time..hard to do but not impossible