January 2022

[Texaspirate11]

I'm so enjoying this boring winter
and I hope those in the Carolinas can keep warm
being without power just sucks.

[don]

Kinda of interesting that the 12Z Euro now also gets close to showing a winter storm across the southern half of the state late next week. It looks similar to the GFS.While i don't expect any major arctic air(the upper levels look situated for the brunt of the arctic air to stay well to the northeast of us.) Saying that we may get enough of a glancing blow of arctic air for a system to tap into. As the subtropical jet looks to becomes active at the same time that some arctic air is moving into the state.Setting the stage for a classic overrunning setup,something to keep an eye on.

[sambucol]

I read that subtropical jet may pull the very cold air down here to SETX. The pro met was concerned about that happening.

[Stratton20]

18z GFS at hour 180, will be interesting to see what the overnight models show, some support for this from the GEFS members

[Kingwood36]

60/40 says it will be gone with overnight runs

[cperk]

60/40 says it will be gone with overnight runs

The 6Z GFS has shifted the winter weather to the east very close to the Houston area in the 174hr time frame.

[Cpv17]

60/40 says it will be gone with overnight runs

The 6Z GFS has shifted the winter weather to the east very close to the Houston area in the 174hr time frame.

I will add to that the 6z GFS is showing a 1052mb high coming into NE Montana which is slightly stronger than what it was showing yesterday. It’s definitely looking chilly around here for next Friday regardless of precipitation.

[Kingwood36]

60/40 says it will be gone with overnight runs

The 6Z GFS has shifted the winter weather to the east very close to the Houston area in the 174hr time frame.

I will add to that the 6z GFS is showing a 1052mb high coming into NE Montana which is slightly stronger than what it was showing yesterday. It’s definitely looking chilly around here for next Friday regardless of precipitation.

I noticed that 6z..can't argue now that the trends are looking favorable for now atleast

[Kingwood36]

Let's all wait for 57 to post on 2k and pull the football again

[Cpv17]

Here’s an example of how bad the GFS is with handling temps. This is the latest 6z GFS for 6am this morning. It’s showing a temp of 52°F. When I woke up at 7am this morning it was 40°F.

[cperk]

This system for days has been inching west per models while i realize it's only one run so lets see if we have a trend over the next few days.

[Kingwood36]

Well he said he isn't liking it so that means he's starting to buy in

[Stratton20]

06z GFS

[Kingwood36]

Only good thing about living down here is when one of those gulf lows form it gives a chance for precip

[don]

Looking at the soundings from the GFS over the area for right now at least its showing a sleet setup.Even the areas where it shows just rain, would actually be sleet based on the atmospheric soundings.I would like to see the other models get onboard before i really start to buy it though.But if you want a significant winter storm in south/southeast Texas what the GFS shows is definitely one of the best setups you'll get around here for wintry precip.

[Stratton20]

Don Fwiw almost half of the 06z GEFS ensemble members are showing this as well

[don]

12Z GFS shows a lot of moisture to work with,with temps in the mid to low 30s across most of the area with plenty of precipitation.

[Kingwood36]

12Z GFS shows a lot of moisture to work with,with temps in the mid to low 30s across most of the area with plenty of precipitation.

Air isn't as cold tho and a warm nose is detected..so just a cold rain for this run..things can change tho

[Stratton20]

12z GFS, still waiting for the CMC to come out, we will see if it gets on board as well

[don]

12Z GFS shows a lot of moisture to work with,with temps in the mid to low 30s across most of the area with plenty of precipitation.

Air isn't as cold tho..so just a cold rain for this run..things can change tho

Remember in this range its important to not look too much in to the details such as precip type and temperatures. The overall setup is whats important. Variability in models runs especially in this range is normal and expected.