September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:05 am

That should move the track back west then...putting houston and the coast with more of the heavy rain threat

Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:07 am

This has got to be the most hair pulling storm ever lol

Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:09 am

It sure is. Will it strengthen to a hurricane or not. Will it make landfall more west or not.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:12 am

The track shifted a little to the left of Port O Connor. The 10pm advisory was to the right of Palacios and right near the nuclear plant s of Bay City.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:16 am

Throwing my hands up - this storm is insane.
I cant remember such uncertainty as this one.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:20 am

Texaspirate11 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:16 am Throwing my hands up - this storm is insane.
I cant remember such uncertainty as this one.

I agree. No telling what it will do overnight at this point.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:23 am

Pressure down to 1003 mb

Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:29 am

New track issued due to the relocation.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:29 am

The new track lines up perfectly with the GEFS.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:34 am

UKMET has shifted east and is more in line with the GFS

Mon Sep 13, 2021 12:36 am

Best guess is part of Connor to Freeport it seems that's where most of the back in forth is going

Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:02 am

Heavy cell coming through Spring now.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:02 am

Starting to get that shape to it. Would not be surprised to wake up to a cane headed our way.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:07 am

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:02 am Starting to get that shape to it. Would not be surprised to wake up to a cane headed our way.

It’s looking really good right now. DMAX is doing him well.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:13 am

At 60mph already....

Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
100 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021

...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS THAT NICHOLAS IS CONTINUING
TO STRENGTHEN...

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 96.5W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:20 am

Oh geez. 60 mph already? We may looking at a hurricane come sunrise.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:27 am

00Z ECMWF has shifted towards the other models with landfall near Matagorda Bay and a track to the northeast. No stall this time. It shows similar rainfall totals like the GFS with most seeing 4-8 inches and pockets of 10-15. Max wind gusts could reach close to 60mph in the city though.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:28 am

djmike wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:20 am Oh geez. 60 mph already? We may looking at a hurricane come sunrise.

Yep. Nick is getting its act together. The long oval center consolidated north and is riding the Pacific firehose.

Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:32 am

Mon Sep 13, 2021 1:37 am

From zero to hero on the consolidated center.

September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

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