September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[TexasBreeze]

I've seen this before,

shift, modify, shift, modify, shift, modify

We'll probably end up with a Cat 3 into Freeport....

I live in Freeport....hush that mouth!

The new 18z GFS sure got closer to that solution compared to 12z. Not a 3, but a minimum hurricane!

[snowman65]

we all know the drill by now...of course its going to be a cat 1 at least...they all form...this is 2021..this isnt our grandparents planet...

[Cpv17]

I've seen this before,

shift, modify, shift, modify, shift, modify

We'll probably end up with a Cat 3 into Freeport....

I live in Freeport....hush that mouth!

The new 18z GFS sure got closer to that solution compared to 12z. Not a 3, but a minimum hurricane!

57 earlier said it’ll just be another Mindy..maybe he spook too soon….

[Stratton20]

Wow thats definitely a cat 1 on the GFS, definitely wasn’t anticipating that as were most of us

[jasons2k]

Well we got an update from the pool builder. Due to the weather plaster/pebble finish is on-hold. So now we just wait…at the mercy of the weather. In the end it may not be a bad thing. We can’t swim anyway if it’s raining. The trees have been so dry they’ve been dropping brown leaves, especially the sweet gums. A nice soaking may put that in-check long enough while plaster and the cool deck finish is applied. Plus I don’t have to try and open a pool in pouring rain.

Looking more and more like we are going to get inflow feeder bands off the gulf. At least the new decking and drains are all installed and ready to go.

[TexasBreeze]

It looks like a real possibility may arise of it riding the coast just inland or just offshore give or take then going toward the far se Tx or sw La area. Not shown, just an imo opinion. We will see! EC is more inland though right through the central park of our area.

[davidiowx]

we all know the drill by now...of course its going to be a cat 1 at least...they all form...this is 2021..this isnt our grandparents planet...

Lol! If that’s the case, then we should see the models slowly transition into this hitting central Louisiana. Seems like that’s been happening consistently the last 2 years.

[Stratton20]

Davidiowx thats not how that works lol, this is not going to make landfall in central Louisiana, if anything a N Mexico to lower Texas coast landfall is almost a guarantee at this point

[cperk]

Don’t look now but the 18z GFS has a 991mb tropical storm hitting what look to be the Houston/Galveston area on 9/14.

[don]

18Z GFS ensembles are now more inline with the euro ensembles.Hopefully the models will continue to converge on a solution tonight and tomorrow.

[don]

Looks like the GFS brings the pressure down to 982mb before landfall which could be a strong category 1.Considering were within 90 hours now if this trend continues tonight and tomorrow,it will be time to start making preparations.As there wont be much time to prepare.It will be interesting to see what the 0z models show tonight.

[cperk]

Ok the GFS has just threw a curve ball with the strongest run yet.

[cperk]

Looks like the GFS brings the pressure down to 982mb before landfall which could be a strong category 1.Considering were within 90 hours now if this trend continues tonight and tomorrow,it will be time to start making preparations.As there wont be much time to prepare.It will be interesting to see what the 0z models show tonight.

Yeah I normally don’t stay up for the 0z models but I probably will tonight.

[Stratton20]

Talk about a crazy last few days in the weather world lol

[Cpv17]

It might be a close call for me here in Wharton County. I might not get anything out of this lol I sure hope I can at least get a couple inches but it seems like the models might be trending east of me.

[Scott747]

Should see with the TWO about to be released how much a fire that GFS run lit.

Probably need another cycle but there could be some subtle changes in the wording.

[DoctorMu]

Looks like we have a "Coast Rider." If we wait much longer for model clarity and confidence, it's going to be down to Nowcasting.

[Stratton20]

Nhc upper chances of development to 80%

[Pas_Bon]

This is starting to look like a bigger problem for the setx gulf coast

[Texaspirate11]

My work in Galveston decided to close on Sunday