September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[jasons2k]

Well, I don’t like what I see in the latest model trends.

MMG was here to do the final pre-plaster/pebble inspection on the pool (they cleaned it the other day). He said it’s dry and ready to go. They were scheduling us for Monday. We talked about the weather and he said he was going to call it in now and see if they can start tomorrow. Problem is that it’s a two day job. A day of prep and a day to shoot plaster/pebble. It’s gonna be close. If they don’t get this done now we could be looking at a weeklong delay or longer. And - even if they do get it in, the last thing I need when trying to chemically balance and open a brand new pool is a foot if rain. Either way the timing just sucks.

[don]

LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...
Elongated sfc trof axis should be stretched across the western
Gulf Coast at the beginning of the period, with the possibility of
a closed surface circulation or TD situated across the western
Bay of Campeche.

Deeper tropical moisture will be moving into the region during the
day Sunday with good chances of precip expected south of I-10 and
more scattered to isolated coverage the further inland one goes.
Continued modification/moistening occurs Sunday night into Monday
with PW's climbing to 2.0-2.6" (highest south). Shra/tstms should
expand in coverage along the trof axis & convergent zone closer to
the coast and offshore Sunday night then eventually further
inland during the day Monday. Heavy tropical downpours appear
likely, with highest accumulations south of a Columbus-Livingston
line, and moreso along the coast.

Models all point to a continued long fetch of deep moisture
streaming inland & high rain chances across the CWA well into
midweek. That said, it's still too early for the specifics and
finer details. GFS, ECMWF, ICON and CMC all show the closed
circulation moving northward around the ridge to the east...up the
coastline of Mexico and into TX. However, timing & locations vary
from model-to-model -- and will probably continue to do so into
the weekend until if/when something actually develops. Some
guidance keeps the circulation over water, some over land. None
of that is particularly important at this point. Either way, we
are fairly confident this should be more of a precip event vs
wind event. Being on the east side of trof/circulation and high
PW's for several days point toward some heavy rains. Think WPC's
3-7" forecast amounts south of I-10 thru midweek look reasonable
at this point. Of course those isolated much higher amounts
associated with training/bands & high rain rates will be the key
in regards to trouble points.

[Scott747]

12z ICON shifts the main part of the energy (and heavier precipitation) sw towards the middle/upper texas and a little away from sw la. 6z experimental hurricane model shows something similar with neither fully developing the system.

[Scott747]

12z GFS is showing a little stronger reflection and further w as it nears a landfall as a depression/storm n of Tampico.

[don]

Yep the GFS is a little stronger and develops the system closer to the coast so it moves inland much further south of us into Mexico and dissipating,which would substantially decrease rainfall amounts for us.We'll have to see if its a trend or not.

[sambucol]

Is it possible this system will dump rain on us like Imelda or Harvey did?

[don]

Is it possible this system will dump rain on us like Imelda or Harvey did?

I'm not concerned about that level of rainfall right now.Just something to keep an eye on, it may not be till Sunday afternoon before we really know if this is a high impact event or not. Organization and track will play a large part when it comes to impacts we may or may not receive locally.

[TexasBreeze]

For those wanting rain it actually shows a good to handle rainfall event without the excess totals that are no good for anyone.

[don]

The 12Z CMC no longer buries the system into Mexico and is a little stronger with a depression or weak storm making landfall in north Mexico and riding north into Texas.Unfortunately it looks similar to the EURO with the system stalling and raining itself out over the area.

[Stratton20]

Yeah im going to be skeptical of the models showing lighter rainfall amounts, I just dont see that as a likely scenario especially if this wave gets its act together, i think the WPC has a good handle on what will happen, I think the GFS is underestimating this wave IMO, I want a few inches of rain, but at the same time, a few inches could turn south real fast, just depends on where the heavy rain bands set up

[Scott747]

Yeah im going to be skeptical of the models showing lighter rainfall amounts, I just dont see that as a likely scenario especially if this wave gets its act together, i think the WPC has a good handle on what will happen, I think the GFS is underestimating this wave IMO, I want a few inches of rain, but at the same time, a few inches could turn south real fast, just depends on where the heavy rain bands set up

You do realize the WPC is inline with what the GFS is generally showing?

[Stratton20]

Scott747 we will see, not arguing with anyone here just my opinion, just a litte worried for my family as they live right much further south than me ,as I tell people its best to be prepared just in case, the GFS is good but it cant tell us where the heavy rain bands will set up, that will dictate who gets some nasty totals and who gets 1-3 inches, again in not arguing with anyone here, just a little concerned for my family with flooding issues, dad has covid so my mom and brother have to take care of him

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro today will be very telling today imo.

[Pas_Bon]

Is it possible this system will dump rain on us like Imelda or Harvey did?

IMHO....Harvey? No.
Imelda? Perhaps

We shall see. tomorrow will be a very telling forecast.

[don]

NHC moved area of development a little further offshore.

1. The northern part of a tropical wave is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean Sea, and
portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula. This system
is forecast to move into the Bay of Campeche and merge with a
pre-existing surface trough by Sunday. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive to support gradual development thereafter,
and a tropical depression is likely to form on Sunday or Monday
before the system moves onshore along the western Gulf of Mexico
coast. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to
produce heavy rains across portions of Central America and the
Yucatan Peninsula through Saturday. Heavy rains are likely to
reach portions of the western Gulf coast late this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Scott747]

12z Euro comes in further S with a depression or weak TS roughly between Tampico and Brownsville and then comes just offshore of Brownsville towards Corpus with allows it to at least maintain its circulation.

Continues up thru Matagorda Bay as it slightly re-strengthens.

[don]

Yep the EURO shows it becoming tropical storm as it scrapes the coast of north Mexico/south Texas and moves into Port Aransas/Matagorda still as a storm.At least rainfall amounts appear more manageable on this run,but still showing some heavy rain.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 101513
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1013 AM CDT Fri Sep 10 2021

.UPDATE...
Low level convergence focuses south of Matagorda Bay this
morning/early afternoon with a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Dry air will again be mixing down and expect
another warm but dry day across the region. Winds near the coast
becoming easterly this afternoon which should start to nudge up
the dewpoints there.
45

&&

.DISCUSSION...

[Scott747]

I've mentioned in the past sometimes the pod for recon flights and estimated location can give a little insight to what the NHC is thinking...

Recon for Saturday has been scheduled for the afternoon around 21.5N 95.0W which is offshore of Tampico by a decent clip and makes sense if a guesstimate of a track towards n mex or extreme s tx is the early idea - 'If' a system were to develop.

*edit*

Recon schedule should be for Sunday, not Saturday.

[dp6]

I've seen this before,

shift, modify, shift, modify, shift, modify

We'll probably end up with a Cat 3 into Freeport....