Texaspirate11 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 28, 2021 9:50 pm
If y'all can go read the NOLA NWS - they mean business
I dont know how to copy and paste it on here
Here is the AFD with the important stuff bolded:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
618 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021
.SHORT TERM...All eyes on Ida. Ida continues to strengthen through
the day and the 4pm advisory now has Ida at 105 mph with a minimum
central pressure of 976mb. Ida is forecast to still become an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane and could strengthen all
the way up to landfall which is now expected by midday/early
afternoon tomorrow. If you have not finished your preparations yet
FINISH THEM NOW! If you are under a mandatory evacuation...LEAVE
NOW! You do not want to play around with your life and it is not
worth it to stay if you have the means to leave.
Ida is moving to the northwest around a ridge centered over the
Atlantic coast around SC/NC. This has provided a very well defined
steering current leading Ida directly towards the north-central
Gulf. Ida has been gaining strength through the day and the
presentation on satellite is very ominous. A few very concerning
observations. Ida still hasn`t really rapidly intensified yet, and
the thinking is it still will and that now means that it could be
strengthening up to or just before making landfall. Even though that
hasn`t occurred it is already stronger than what the guidance was
initially expecting and it has been a slow increase. Ida is going to
continue to strengthen for at least the next 12-18 hours. There is
no dry air around, upper level outflow is quite impressive, and Ida
will move over the warmest and deepest part of the Gulf. This is all
very conducive for strengthening. What this can mean is that there
may not be time for an eye wall replacement cycle to get started
which would lead to some slight weakening but as mentioned already
it could be strengthening up to landfall.
The track has been sliding just a touch east of the forecast and
this is leading to some greater concerns with respect to surge in
some areas and rainfall potential in areas that just can not handle
heavy rain. First any more adjustments east will cause surge to
become a greater problem along the east facing shores of Louisiana.
The current track is going to bring UNSURVIVABLE surge up Barataria
and Terrebonne Bays. Much of coastal LA is just marsh so this surge
will penetrate well inland and unless you are within the Hurricane
Risk Reduction System you are putting your life in danger and do not
expect to receive any help if you are caught and cut off. This
includes both west and east of the mouth of the MS River in SELA.
Outside of those areas life threatening storm surge is expected to
occur in the tidal lakes and coastal MS. Lake Pontchartrain could
see 6 to 8 feet of surge and possibly even higher in the
northwestern sections of the lake around Tangipahoa Parish and
western St Tammany parish. Coastal MS especially west of Ocean
Springs could see up to 11ft. Locations that typically have tidal
issues in Hancock county should leave now as storm surge will be
extremely dangerous.
Winds will be dangerous to destructive through our entire CWA. The
most destructive winds will occur along the coast of Louisiana where
devastating structural damage could occur as winds are expected to
gust over 160 mph! This will severely damage to destroy most
structures that are not well built. Locations around New Orleans
could see winds that are far stronger than what was experienced last
year during Hurricane Zeta with much of the area likely seeing winds
gusts in excess of 100 mph. If there is any more of a jog east these
winds will be even higher. Winds funneling through some of the high
rises will be even stronger. Around Baton Rouge we could see wind
damage that far eclipses what was seen during Hurricane Gustav.
Winds gusts over 110 mph are possible that far inland. This will
lead to widespread tree damage, structural damage, and massive power
outages which could take weeks to restore. Across southwest MS winds
will remain very strong likely gusting over hurricane force around
Wilkinson County and gusting to near hurricane force as far east as
McComb. Northshore areas, especially along the lake could see wind
gusts over hurricane force with widespread tree damage and power
outages. Coastal MS likely to see winds gusts over 60 mph at times
which could still lead to damage and widespread power outages.
The other life threatening concern is heavy rain. This is two fold
though because of where it could fall combining that with the surge
in the lake and along the coast. We are anticipating a band of very
heavy rain that could be 15 to 20 inches and possibly higher. If
this falls over the city of New Orleans it will overwhelm the pumps
with extremely dangerous flash flooding possible. At the same time
winds could be dangerous and this would prevent people from trying
to find higher ground. Other areas of major concern is along and
north of I-12. This is the area where we have many rivers that are
quick to respond, Amite/Comite, Tickfaw, Tangipahoa, Bogue Chitto,
and across the MS border in coastal MS we have the the Hobolochittos
and Wolf. All of these rivers and a few more respond rather quickly
to heavy rain and the combine with the problem of surge into the
lake and along coastal MS. The surge will push up these rivers and
the rain will have no where to go and quickly lead to dangerous
flash flooding conditions. Combine the possibility of debris
clogging up other areas of drainage and widespread life threatening
flash flooding is possible. Please if you live in a flood prone area
highly consider leaving. If this rain falls directly over you the
drainage and rivers could be overwhelmed quickly and you could be
cut off with rising water.
Ida will finally pull away on Monday. Winds and rain will finally
begin to taper off but surge could take a while to completely back
down sense we never quite get offshore flow. These are the last few
hours to prepare or leave. Conditions are expected to deteriorate
late tonight and especially tomorrow morning. Once sustained
tropical storm force winds move in first responders will button down
and YOU WILL BE ON YOUR OWN. Please understand this, there is the
possibility that conditions could be unlivable along the coast for
some time and areas around New Orleans and Baton Rouge could be
without power for weeks. We have all seen the destruction and pain
caused by Harvey, Michael, and Laura. Anticipate devastation on this
level and if it doesn`t happen then we should all count our
blessings. Please again if you have the means to leave and you are 1
in a mandatory or voluntary evacuation zone, LEAVE; 2 are in a very
flood prone area, LEAVE, 3 are uncomfortable and have trees around
your house, LEAVE. Do not play around and say "I`ve been through
Andrew/Camille/Katrina/Betsy" all storms are different. /CAB/
.LONG TERM...Overall the long term portion of the forecast was not
changed from NBM. The focus is obviously on Hurricane Ida. A
weakness aloft and a trailing boundary left over by Ida could lead
to scattered storms each day. If this falls over areas that get 15-
20 inches of rain with Ida problems will be prolonged. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...Conditions are already going downhill. Shipping across our
coastal waters should be shut down as hurricane force winds will
begin to move in overnight. Ida is going to move across the waters
west of the mouth of the MS River but the very expansive wind field
will be hurricane to strong tropical storm force winds east of the
mouth of the MS River. Seas in the open waters will likely top out
over 40 feet. Conditions should slowly being to improve Monday as
Ida finally pulls away. /CAB/
&&
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I just heard that there are some people who decided to stay behind in Grand Isle
I hope they wrote their SS number on their arms so they can be identified later
Ida will finally pull away on Monday. Winds and rain will finally
begin to taper off but surge could take a while to completely back
down sense we never quite get offshore flow. These are the last few
hours to prepare or leave. Conditions are expected to deteriorate
late tonight and especially tomorrow morning. Once sustained
tropical storm force winds move in first responders will button down
and YOU WILL BE ON YOUR OWN. Please understand this, there is the
possibility that conditions could be unlivable along the coast for
some time and areas around New Orleans and Baton Rouge could be
without power for weeks. We have all seen the destruction and pain
caused by Harvey, Michael, and Laura. Anticipate devastation on this
level and if it doesn`t happen then we should all count our
blessings. Please again if you have the means to leave and you are 1
in a mandatory or voluntary evacuation zone, LEAVE; 2 are in a very
flood prone area, LEAVE, 3 are uncomfortable and have trees around
your house, LEAVE. Do not play around and say "I`ve been through
Andrew/Camille/Katrina/Betsy" all storms are different. /CAB/
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared! Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared! Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
In a hurry - copy/paste from S2K. Rough night ahead folks:
Checking-in after a Saturday high school football game. We had a nice easterly breeze and it was pleasantly mild - especially for an August football game.
As for Ida this trend is what I was expecting. I don’t really have much new to add. The Grand Isle area still looks like a good call to me. It’s sickening though - I love the city of New Orleans and have lots of ties there. I’m very concerned about the people who chose to leave or don’t have the means to get out. Get ready folks, unfortunately we are seeing a terrible disaster unfold.
At this point - prayers up
What more can be said until the aftermath.
It just wont look the same for a while.
God bless the responders. Pro Mets working it
and all who are there to get everyone through.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared! Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Sat Aug 28, 2021 10:06 pm
Some on the news said they wouldn't leave due to them and their family being positive for covid and not finding anywhere to stay.
Sorry to get political, but covid more than likely will not kill you. A direct hit from a major hurricane in a bad area more than likely will. Worry about the damned virus another time.
Andrew wrote: ↑Sun Aug 29, 2021 1:46 am
Latest pass showing ~945mb in the eye. Likely looking at cat 4 hurricane here.
The extent of the likely sustained hurricane force winds is getting unnerving with the surge buildup. Getting close to worse case scenario for NOLA if there isn't some big wobbles to the left.
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 29, 2021 2:10 am
Im unfortunately confident this is going to be a Cat 5 before landfall, what a terrible situation unfolding
My knee jerk reaction to this was, “what an insane statement.”
I’m thinking she may make a run for it now.
National Hurricane Center
@NHC_Atlantic
600 AM CDT Update: #Ida continues to strengthen and now has maximum sustained winds of around 150 MPH with higher gusts, and a minimum pressure of 935 mb (27.61 inches) http://hurricanes.gov
Attachments
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Latest AF RECON pass suggests Ida still strengthening. 928 mb at center. Radar also suggests the eye continues to become more symmetrical. Unfortunately no Eyewall Replacement Cycle before landfall.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Seeing some extrapolated upper 920s mb now. Pretty incredible and near the worst-case scenario for the region. Based on the recent radar motion landfall should be around 10-12 this morning. Hopefully, a little bit of a west jog can occur so NOLA avoids the worse of it.
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txbear wrote: ↑Sun Aug 29, 2021 7:59 am
Absolute monster. This is why you should never wishcast tropical anything.
Amen. I saw so many people on S2K yesterday that were aggravated that "Its only a cat 2". It doesn't take long for the situation to quickly change. That makes 2 storms in the gulf that blew up this year alone.
