August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[Cpv17]

CPV17 what are they showing?

Pretty decent signal for another system coming out the southern or sw Caribbean crossing over the Yucatán and into the southern Gulf. Some of the members are pretty strong too. The op shows it too but it’s weak.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 ah gotcha! Yeah definitely have noticed models are hinting at some more tropical mischief next week, we will see what happens

[captainbarbossa19]

CPV17 what are they showing?

Pretty decent signal for another system coming out the southern or sw Caribbean crossing over the Yucatán and into the southern Gulf. Some of the members are pretty strong too. The op shows it too but it’s weak.

CMC and GEFS are showing development too. Many members track this into the northwestern Gulf. I do not think we are anywhere close to finished this season.

[Stratton20]

Captainbarbossa19 we absolutely arent! We gotta get through september first before we can say that

[srainhoutx]

Move the discussion on any future threats to the September Topic. Nothing on the horizon beyond Ida for the month of August. Thanks.

[DoctorMu]

Move the discussion on any future threats to the September Topic. Nothing on the horizon beyond Ida for the month of August. Thanks.

Yeah, we're done. Ridge builds. Ida will make us pay the price for a "cool summer."

[Scott747]

Model trends even this late and current storm movement is concerning for New Orleans. Really need the storm to adjust back to the w to avoid 'testing' the levee and drainage improvements after Katrina.

[Andrew]

Model trends even this late and current storm movement is concerning for New Orleans. Really need the storm to adjust back to the w to avoid 'testing' the levee and drainage improvements after Katrina.

Plus the latest recon fixes with current satellite data indicate more of a NW-NNW movement which is not good for NOLA.

[Scott747]

Model trends even this late and current storm movement is concerning for New Orleans. Really need the storm to adjust back to the w to avoid 'testing' the levee and drainage improvements after Katrina.

Plus the latest recon fixes with current satellite data indicate more of a NW-NNW movement which is not good for NOLA.

It's also crazy watching some of the squabbling across a few of the message boards about intensity underperforming. To me that expanding windfield and closer approach to NOLA is more concerning with the surge obviously building. It hasn't had the time nor the size of Ike currently, but if we've learned anything in SE Texas (especially Bolivar) is that you don't need an 'intense' hurricane to do widescale damage.

[Texaspirate11]

The governor of Louisiana just said that Ida will be the strongest storm to hit Louisiana since the 1850s. Did he sleep thru Laura????

[Dls2010r]

TexasPirate. I’ve watched what you’ve said for years and I just wanna say ThankYou because your about taking care of people with disabilities. My mom lives in your neck of woods. I think you two would click very well. I just wanna say Thank You! FYI. She’s a youngster at heart

[Texaspirate11]

TexasPirate. I’ve watched what you’ve said for years and I just wanna say ThankYou because your about taking care of people with disabilities. My mom lives in your neck of woods. I think you two would click very well. I just wanna say Thank You! FYI. She’s a youngster at heart

Thank you for recognizing that. I worked thru SNOWMAGEDDON and am grateful for helping those get thru the worst disasters. Dont think Im gonna work this one but i may have spoken to soon. I hope i get to meet your mom and not in a disaster!

[TexasBreeze]

To me it appears that it may landfall quicker than tmw afternoon. It is moving more to the east and less time over water. The outer bands are already moving onshore se LA.

[Andrew]

To me it appears that it may landfall quicker than tmw afternoon. It is moving more to the east and less time over water. The outer bands are already moving onshore se LA.

If it doesn't track a little further west landfall could occur tomorrow around midday. With that said, the storm is expected to slow a little before landfall as it begins to rotate around the upper-level ridge. It's not going to be a ton but it may delay landfall by an hour or so.

[Texaspirate11]

To me it appears that it may landfall quicker than tmw afternoon. It is moving more to the east and less time over water. The outer bands are already moving onshore se LA.

If it doesn't track a little further west landfall could occur tomorrow around midday. With that said, the storm is expected to slow a little before landfall as it begins to rotate around the upper-level ridge. It's not going to be a ton but it may delay landfall by an hour or so.

Andrew do you think it will be a cat 4?

[Andrew]

To me it appears that it may landfall quicker than tmw afternoon. It is moving more to the east and less time over water. The outer bands are already moving onshore se LA.

If it doesn't track a little further west landfall could occur tomorrow around midday. With that said, the storm is expected to slow a little before landfall as it begins to rotate around the upper-level ridge. It's not going to be a ton but it may delay landfall by an hour or so.

Andrew do you think it will be a cat 4?

Based on the recent satellite images I think cat 3-4 is the most likely scenario at this point. With that said landfall could be sooner than models are predicting so it only has about 12-16 more hours over water.

[rselby0654]

Is it me or does Ida look like she’s going street west the last few frames.

[Andrew]

Is it me or does Ida look like she’s going street west the last few frames.

It's just the rotation of the individual storms around the center that is still trying to fully clear. It's still moving to the NW and you will likely see a "jump" back north in the next couple of frames.

[Texaspirate11]

If y'all can go read the NOLA NWS - they mean business
I dont know how to copy and paste it on here

[TexasBreeze]

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

This discussion is very much worth the read.