August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[weatherguy425]

Kingwood36 I assume hea talking about the storms that the GFS is showing around day 8-10 after IDA, dont know why hes claiming its going to hit Lousiana when that literally is 11 days out on the model

He was being a smart ***. He has a dry sense of humor. The GFS spins up systems all the time, the GEFS shows nothing ATM. He was trying to be funny.

While not nearly as aggressive as the operational, GEFS has had a modest signal for development.

[tireman4]

Kingwood36 I assume hea talking about the storms that the GFS is showing around day 8-10 after IDA, dont know why hes claiming its going to hit Lousiana when that literally is 11 days out on the model

He was being sarcastic...

For those of us who know Wxman 57 personally, like me ( yep, me..and I have been on the end of some serious zingers, by the way..on my Facebook page..LOL), he has an irascible wit. LOL

[tireman4]

Back at Home....


000
FXUS64 KHGX 261754
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1254 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Today`s convection has mainly been relegated in the coastal
counties near GLS and LBX. Radar trends are mainly downward with
previous offshore convection dissipating, however starting to see
pop-up showers across the central and northern counties as well.
These should transition over to scattered thunderstorms in the
late afternoon hours. Leaned towards previous forecasts and the
HRW FV3 for thunderstorm timing which shows a pulse of convection
moving westward around 23z-00z and dissipating by 04z. Rain
showers get off to an early start tomorrow as an inverted trough
moves ashore, so VCSH wording has been added in the 07z-10z
timeframe with earlier times along the coast. The showers are not
expected to reach far north enough to impact CLL and UTS. Overall,
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period.

Batiste

[cperk]

Kingwood36 I assume hea talking about the storms that the GFS is showing around day 8-10 after IDA, dont know why hes claiming its going to hit Lousiana when that literally is 11 days out on the model

He was being sarcastic...

He’s messing with us.

[Cpv17]

Kingwood36 I assume hea talking about the storms that the GFS is showing around day 8-10 after IDA, dont know why hes claiming its going to hit Lousiana when that literally is 11 days out on the model

He was being a smart ***. He has a dry sense of humor. The GFS spins up systems all the time, the GEFS shows nothing ATM. He was trying to be funny.

While not nearly as aggressive as the operational, GEFS has had a modest signal for development.

It looks like all the members that do show something are fairly weak.

[prospects8903]

Looks to me the LLC has more of a westerly movement than north right now

[tireman4]

Well, we knew this was coming...

18z Best Track up to TS IDA.

AL, 09, 2021082618, BEST, 0, 177N, 794W, 35, 1004, TS

[jasons2k]

Well, we knew this was coming...

18z Best Track up to TS IDA.

AL, 09, 2021082618, BEST, 0, 177N, 794W, 35, 1004, TS

Ida gone get some boudain…

[Texaspirate11]

Well, we knew this was coming...

18z Best Track up to TS IDA.

AL, 09, 2021082618, BEST, 0, 177N, 794W, 35, 1004, TS

Ida gone get some boudain…

GLAD she doesnt like our BBQ

[Andrew]

Looks to me the LLC has more of a westerly movement than north right now

A weak LLC remains south of the primary convection with the MLC further north near the convection west of Jamaica. That part of the storm continues to track to the WNW/ NW. Models continue to show that the MLC will eventually reach the surface. Recon is heading into the storm now so we know more soon.

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro was a no go on the next system. Wonder what the EPS will say.

[snowman65]

ive been out for a bit...whats the latest? Baton Rouge-ish?

[tireman4]

Just my opinion, I do wonder what the 00Z runs will show ( as the HH are in the system now). I think that will really tell us much more to this story.

[weatherguy425]

The 12z Euro was a no go on the next system. Wonder what the EPS will say.

Some members are showing development in the BOC/western Caribbean as well.

[Cpv17]

ive been out for a bit...whats the latest? Baton Rouge-ish?

Houma, LA seems like a good bet for landfall to me.

[Scott747]

Recon is nearing the best track 'center' and there ain't a whole lot there....

[Andrew]

Recon is nearing the best track 'center' and there ain't a whole lot there....

First initial past near 18N/80W. Let's see if recon passes north and then dips back south.

[Stratton20]

If they aren’t findinf a good center then thus forecast is aboit to become even more challenging

[Kingwood36]

From the messiah

wxman57 wrote :18Z consensus (TVCN) shifted about 0.4 deg east of my landfall point south of Morgan City. I expected that. Landfall about the same time with TVCN (5pm-6pm Sunday). Expect the NHC to nudge the track a little east shortly. Also expect 100 kts.

Canadian model moves the "Great Labor Day Hurricane" into the Florida Panhandle. No worries for LA, it appears.

[AtascocitaWX]

If they aren’t findinf a good center then thus forecast is aboit to become even more challenging

They found a center but its weak. Still no TS force winds yet found yet