August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[captainbarbossa19]

If anything forms historically speaking, Galveston County has the highest odds of getting hit. They have the highest number of major hurricane direct hits in the state going back to 1900. However, one cannot solely rely upon historical impacts to determine where this system will end up.

Edit: actually, it is Brazoria County with the highest number, but Galveston County is #2.

Just my 2 cents but I believe we live in a totally different world than what once was. You can throw out all the records, statistics, history.....it's a new ball game now...the "hot spots" have changed....

That is possible that it has changed, but we would have to have at least another 100 years of data to prove that.

[vci_guy2003]

Seems like the last several years the TX/LA border has taken all the landfalls.

[snowman65]

If anything forms historically speaking, Galveston County has the highest odds of getting hit. They have the highest number of major hurricane direct hits in the state going back to 1900. However, one cannot solely rely upon historical impacts to determine where this system will end up.

Edit: actually, it is Brazoria County with the highest number, but Galveston County is #2.

Just my 2 cents but I believe we live in a totally different world than what once was. You can throw out all the records, statistics, history.....it's a new ball game now...the "hot spots" have changed....

That is possible that it has changed, but we would have to have at least another 100 years of data to prove that.

I'm glad I won't be around to watch it unfold lol

[captainbarbossa19]

Just my 2 cents but I believe we live in a totally different world than what once was. You can throw out all the records, statistics, history.....it's a new ball game now...the "hot spots" have changed....

That is possible that it has changed, but we would have to have at least another 100 years of data to prove that.

I'm glad I won't be around to watch it unfold lol

Same!

[AtascocitaWX]

This is just crazy lol, never seen this much model disagreement before

Hurricane Ike models just about 48 hours prior to landfall suggested a Corpus Christi/N Parde Island landfall and evacuations started down there to only have those models shift to Galveston forcing all the State and Federal assets to quickly relocate to Galveston/Bolivar Peninsula. I believe that there was crow eating by some Pro Mets and government officials...

I remember that .Had to begged my grandmother who lived in galveston at the time to come to Houston. She was being stubborn , but afterwards she was happy she did.

[don]

12Z GFS ensemble tracks.

[TxLady]

I texted my Son-in-Law, last night, and told him he probably should get his generator in running order (gasoline powered - appliances only). I also checked in with my Brother, who lives in Deer Park. He had ordered his Generac "whole house" generator after the big Freeze, in February. They have everything in place, at his house; but, the plumber wants them to turn the unit around. I told him he might want to get that wrapped up by Friday. I went out and checked my propane...Thank Goodness! I was down to 5%! I guess the last time I had mine filled was back in February. My Generac "whole house" runs on propane. I guess I'm as prepared, and as worried as I can be, at this point. So Thankful for the reliable, non-hysterical, information on this site.

[art3]

Ugh. Imminent a precarious place . Living with parents. One on insulin. Generac too costly and also they are out till Jan on unit we need. Thousands like us.

[Texaspirate11]

I texted my Son-in-Law, last night, and told him he probably should get his generator in running order (gasoline powered - appliances only). I also checked in with my Brother, who lives in Deer Park. He had ordered his Generac "whole house" generator after the big Freeze, in February. They have everything in place, at his house; but, the plumber wants them to turn the unit around. I told him he might want to get that wrapped up by Friday. I went out and checked my propane...Thank Goodness! I was down to 5%! I guess the last time I had mine filled was back in February. My Generac "whole house" runs on propane. I guess I'm as prepared, and as worried as I can be, at this point. So Thankful for the reliable, non-hysterical, information on this site.

Got my generator ready to go. Im near Kemah off the bay.

[Pas_Bon]

I'm not sold on the Louisiana solution at this time. Not yet, at least.

[captainbarbossa19]

12Z GFS ensemble tracks.

The mean track is very close to Carla's track.

[Scott747]

12z HWRF continues to shift w with a general heading towards the upper texas coast

12z Euro is now stronger and developing the system near the caymans

[djmike]

Qpf just updated. 7”-10” along the coast and inland for SETX. If models remain with what they currently show. Does raise my eyebrow!

[Texashawk]

Wow, haven’t been here in a while! It looks like a lot of people are interested in weather lately, that’s nice! Anyway, let’s just catch up on the weaWHAT IS HAPPENING HERE WHAT ARE THOSE MODELS DOING WHAT IS THIS OMG

[Scott747]

Euro is likely to be a big run. Deeping system coming through the YC near the western tip of Cuba.

[Scott747]

HWRF approaching San Luis Pass/Galveston as a strong cat 1.

[Stratton20]

HWRF with a big shift west

[don]

Big shift west with the 12Z HWRF fwiw.

[Scott747]

The ridge isn't eroding as quickly on the Euro so despite the earlier organization to the e it gets a little deeper w. Next panel will show either a Louisiana or potential upper texas coast track.

[Rip76]

This is just crazy lol, never seen this much model disagreement before

Hurricane Ike models just about 48 hours prior to landfall suggested a Corpus Christi/N Parde Island landfall and evacuations started down there to only have those models shift to Galveston forcing all the State and Federal assets to quickly relocate to Galveston/Bolivar Peninsula. I believe that there was crow eating by some Pro Mets and government officials...

I remember that moment like yesterday.