August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[Scott747]

Since I just updated about the long range GFS from a couple of weeks ago.

Tonight's long range run could be ugly with the modeling setup.

[Stratton20]

Scott747 and you are correct by that, GFS in the long range has a 963 MB cane striking the texas coast, definitely the pattern of what could unfold in the tropics soon is very concerning

[don]

Expect more flip flops until the models have a system to track.Remember when Grace was supposed to head towards the southeast?And when Henri was supposed to be a fish? We know how that turned out...

[sambucol]

Since I just updated about the long range GFS from a couple of weeks ago.

Tonight's long range run could be ugly with the modeling setup.

For SETX?

[Scott747]

Since I just updated about the long range GFS from a couple of weeks ago.

Tonight's long range run could be ugly with the modeling setup.

For SETX?

With the particular setup in this single run it would be for anywhere from the upper Texas coast to central Louisiana. But this is for a run that's two weeks away. Even with my earlier praise about how good the GFS was with Grace on some of the longer range runs, this specific run is very low confidence of verifying.

[Pas_Bon]

Since I just updated about the long range GFS from a couple of weeks ago.

Tonight's long range run could be ugly with the modeling setup.

For SETX?

I’d have to say mid- to upper TX coast.
Still early, but stay focused.
Looks like we will have a cane to watch closely into the weekend.

[sambucol]

Jeff Lindner posted this on Facebook about 7 hours ago:

We are moving into the peak of hurricane season and while Grace passes well south of Texas now is the time to make sure plans and supplies are ready. Additionally check the forecast daily from trusted sources.

That got my attention that the model runs may be onto something.

[Cpv17]

Since I just updated about the long range GFS from a couple of weeks ago.

Tonight's long range run could be ugly with the modeling setup.

For SETX?

I’d have to say mid- to upper TX coast.
Still early, but stay focused.
Looks like we will have a cane to watch closely into the weekend.

I wouldn’t worry about something that’s showing up two weeks out on the models. 0.1% chance of that happening. Just my opinion.

[txbear]

Don fingers crossed the GFS is wrong about a stronger ridge, ira been hot and dry long enough here

Wrong. I’m constantly amazed (to put it nicely) by your wishcasting of a storm to hit the area with all the impacts there entailed. If you’re so adamant on experiencing a storm, why don’t you put yourself in harms way and chase? Or is that too risky for you.

Hope you’re prepared to donate your money, time, and sweat to rescue and rebuild.

[don]

Yep tropical storms are one thing, but hurricanes are no joke. I was without power for 2 weeks because of Ike.I don't want to go through that again. Even tropical storms can cause major problems as we've seen in the past.

BTW the global models have trended south into Mexico. But it will be a few days before we know if this system is a threat or not.

[Kingwood36]

Don fingers crossed the GFS is wrong about a stronger ridge, ira been hot and dry long enough here

Wrong. I’m constantly amazed (to put it nicely) by your wishcasting of a storm to hit the area with all the impacts there entailed. If you’re so adamant on experiencing a storm, why don’t you put yourself in harms way and chase? Or is that too risky for you.

Hope you’re prepared to donate your money, time, and sweat to rescue and rebuild.

Nothing wrong with being excited about a storm. He or she has enthusiasm and that's great. I don't believe they are wishing a cat 5 to hit the area. Everyone needs to just chill

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 all i want is a weak system, like a depression to bring aome cooler temos plus rain, I dont wish destruction on anyone....

[Stratton20]

txbear you need to calm down, ai never said that I wanted a strong atorm to hit us, I just want some rain and cooler temps, jesus christ take a chill pill

[Stormlover2020]

This late in august isn’t going to be a weak storm, with the pattern right now we have about 4-5 weeks left usually for us until we start seeing strong fronts…could be really interesting the next month n half

[unome]

txbear you need to calm down, ai never said that I wanted a strong atorm to hit us, I just want some rain and cooler temps, jesus christ take a chill pill

is this troll going to be allowed to continue to use sacrilegious insults and cover the board with their (& their other personalities') incessant nonsense? It's enough to make me never want to visit this forum any longer

[Stratton20]

Unome who are you calling a troll ? I very clearly stated that I just want some rain and cooler temps, not a damn hurricane to hit and cause destruction, how about your read first before pulling statements out of knowhere, dont piss me off, ai think you should read Kingwood36’s comment, if you have a problem with me how about we address it in a professional manner instead of acting like a jerk?

[Cromagnum]

I'm just fine with the numerous popcorn thunderstorms we've received lately. Don't need anything from the undisturbed bathtub in the gulf.

[don]

First 12Z global model run of the day ICON,next is GFS,CMC,& EURO in that order LOL.

[TxLady]

My Daughter is in downtown Boston. Her and co-workers decided to check in to Hotel, yesterday, vs driving from Pawtuckett, RI today. Their conference starts tomorrow. So far, so good. I know the next several hours will be "interesting" for her! I appreciate all the replies to my post a couple of days ago regarding "Henri".

[don]

12Z GFS still holding steady with a strong blocking ridge.Keeping the system well south of us.