August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[captainbarbossa19]

12z GEFS is still sniffing out some more potential gulf mischief around 9-10 days from now

So the ridge is expected to develop over us to prevent Grace from hitting us, but 9-10 days from now, the ridge is likely not going to be in the same position. This will need to be watched if trends continue. The western part of the basin seems to be rather favorable like last year and 2017.

[Stratton20]

CaptainBarbossa19 yep that ridge likely will have broken down or moved somewhere else, which would possibly open the door for a Texas threat, way too early to speculate anything , but if the GEFS continues this trend then its something to watch carefully

[captainbarbossa19]

CaptainBarbossa19 yep that ridge likely will have broken down or moved somewhere else, which would possibly open the door for a Texas threat, way too early to speculate anything , but if the GEFS continues this trend then its something to watch carefully

And just like that, the 12z Euro is showing the ridge retreating to the west by days 9 and 10. There is also a strong ridge just to the east of Florida.

[tireman4]

And back home.....


FXUS64 KHGX 171749
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1249 PM CDT Tue Aug 17 2021

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Shower/thunderstorm coverage is steadily increasing across the
central and southern sites. As far as the CAMs go, the ARW has the
best handle on current conditions. Peak coverage is still
expected around the 20z- 00z timeframe with convection
dissipating after sunset. Earlier this morning, a few locations
experienced patchy fog. With clouds scattering out overnight and a
similar pattern, this will be a possibility again especially for
IAH and sites northward. With an increase in moisture,
showers/thunderstorms will have increased coverage as well as an
earlier start tomorrow (09z along the coast and 12z inland for
VCSH; 16z for thunderstorms). Winds will mainly be southerly to
southeasterly with a brief light and variable period overnight as
the pressure gradient relaxes.

Batiste

[Stratton20]

CaptainBarbossa19 yup that would open the door to something getting into the gulf again

[Cpv17]

Man that’s quite the signal on the GEFS

[Stratton20]

CPV17 I know....

[Stratton20]

Also hearing some meteorologists from KHOU saying Grace might be stronger than models are predicting and that this could lead to a track shift north , again I saw a Tweet from Tim Panderjis about this

[Kingwood36]

Also hearing some meteorologists from KHOU saying Grace might be stronger than models are predicting and that this could lead to a track shift north , again I saw a Tweet from Tim Panderjis about this

Maybe but I doubt it.. that ridge is pretty damn stout

[Texaspirate11]

There is also a huge cold front break out in the next couple weeks - may shunt everything away from us
we shall see

[don]

Also hearing some meteorologists from KHOU saying Grace might be stronger than models are predicting and that this could lead to a track shift north , again I saw a Tweet from Tim Panderjis about this

While a stronger storm could erode the ridge a little it wouldn't be enough for Grace to be a threat to us, the ridge is just too strong. The farthest north Grace could get would be northern Mexico, and even that doesn't seem likely.

BTW be safe Srain, i see several tornado and flash flood warnings in your area.It looks rough up there right now.

[Stratton20]

Man i hate high pressure was hoping for some rain from Grace smh! I cant stand hot and dry weather, I used to live in the middle east so hope yall can understand why I dont like hot/ dry weather

[captainbarbossa19]

There is also a huge cold front break out in the next couple weeks - may shunt everything away from us
we shall see

I will believe the front when I see it happen. I have seen models forecast fronts, only for them to be replaced by a ridge.

[GBinGrimes]

Dude...do you ever sleep or do anything else?

Good grief. A break would be nice.

quote=Stratton20 post_id=100679 time=1629237327 user_id=13028]
Man i hate high pressure was hoping for some rain from Grace smh! I cant stand hot and dry weather, I used to live in the middle east so hope yall can understand why I dont like hot/ dry weather
[/quote]

[jasons2k]

I hit 102.2F before a nice shower dropped .23”

Started raining about 10 minutes after the plumbers had finished and pulled away. They did the whole job in 5 hours. A tremendous amount of PVC too. Amazing.

The neighbor’s pool across the street was a three day job. But it was just two guys - today we had about 10 guys here cranking it out.

The latest NWS forecast has me returning to the triple digits again next week with high pressure in place.

[srainhoutx]

Also hearing some meteorologists from KHOU saying Grace might be stronger than models are predicting and that this could lead to a track shift north , again I saw a Tweet from Tim Panderjis about this

While a stronger storm could erode the ridge a little it wouldn't be enough for Grace to be a threat to us, the ridge is just too strong. The farthest north Grace could get would be northern Mexico, and even that doesn't seem likely.

BTW be safe Srain, i see several tornado and flash flood warnings in your area.It looks rough up there right now.

Very tough day across the Smoky Mountains where some locations in Western NC have surpassed 13 inches of Very heavy tropical rainfall with constant Flash Flood Warnings being issued as well as Tornado Warnings across the Region. Fortunately Haywood County has escaped any Tornado risks, but flash flooding and landslides are common throughout our Area. I've measured 7 inches of rain since 7 AM this morning and that sort of rainfall in the Mountains spell big time trouble. The circulation of Fred is just to my W now and that should bring an end to the heavy rainfall for my part of the Smokies.

[Stratton20]

18Z GFS continues to hint at tropical mischief in the gulf around 9-10 days from now

[don]

Also hearing some meteorologists from KHOU saying Grace might be stronger than models are predicting and that this could lead to a track shift north , again I saw a Tweet from Tim Panderjis about this

While a stronger storm could erode the ridge a little it wouldn't be enough for Grace to be a threat to us, the ridge is just too strong. The farthest north Grace could get would be northern Mexico, and even that doesn't seem likely.

BTW be safe Srain, i see several tornado and flash flood warnings in your area.It looks rough up there right now.

Very tough day across the Smoky Mountains where some locations in Western NC have surpassed 13 inches of Very heavy tropical rainfall with constant Flash Flood Warnings being issued as well as Tornado Warnings across the Region. Fortunately Haywood County has escaped any Tornado risks, but flash flooding and landslides are common throughout our Area. I've measured 7 inches of rain since 7 AM this morning and that sort of rainfall in the Mountains spell big time trouble. The circulation of Fred is just to my W now and that should bring an end to the heavy rainfall for my part of the Smokies.

My goodness...I'm glad you're safe.

[jasons2k]

Srain, glad you are ok over there. That’s a lot of rain!

Please send pics when the leaves start to change

[jasons2k]

18Z GFS continues to hint at tropical mischief in the gulf around 9-10 days from now

It’s gonna do that for the next six weeks