August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[Texaspirate11]

Here is the latest from our NWS concerning GRACE:
Mexico bound!

Timing of Grace in the models is faster and
further south towards the eastern/northeastern coast of
Mexico...potentially by Friday noon. NHC shifted the track further
south so at this point other than some additional increase in
moisture will have limited if any impacts here. Upper ridging over
the northern Gulf coast from FL to TX is a consistent feature in
the longer term guidance so confidence is fairly high that Grace
(whatever condition it is in at that point marches west into
Mexico and not northwest into Texas. That upper ridging should
support warmer temperatures this weekend and rain chances likely
more confined to the southern half or even the coastal areas. Max
heat indices in excess of 106 possible for Friday and this could
need adjusting up if the ridge turns out to be even a little
stronger.

[Cromagnum]

So Grace was east coast bound and we all said NEXT. Then it was coming right at us. Then it's headed to Mexico and everyone is saying NEXT. Don't let your guard down.

[djmike]

Still dont let your guard down. We have all seen that scenario where models take the storm to Northern Mexico or S Tx and as days pass, models begin shifting up the coast. Those calling this a done deal saying its a definite MX hit is way premature. I would not feel comfortable saying its all mexico till 1-2 days out of landfall. You all know models will flip over the next few days. Could go back northern or possibly even further south. But calling it a done deal for MX this early is waaaaay too soon.

[davidiowx]

So Grace was east coast bound and we all said NEXT. Then it was coming right at us. Then it's headed to Mexico and everyone is saying NEXT. Don't let your guard down.

Remember when Ike did that? There is certainly more changes coming to the forecast, but the trends are looking promising as of now. Definitely need to watch over the next few days.

[cperk]

Still dont let your guard down. We have all seen that scenario where models take the storm to Northern Mexico or S Tx and as days pass, models begin shifting up the coast. Those calling this a done deal saying its a definite MX hit is way premature. I would not feel comfortable saying its all mexico till 1-2 days out of landfall. You all know models will flip over the next few days. Could go back northern or possibly even further south. But calling it a done deal for MX this early is waaaaay too soon.

You're right days ago the modeling had a weaker ridge and Grace taking a similar track as FRED i will continue to watch the progress of Grace.

[Texaspirate11]

I dont think the NWS would call it if they weren't certain.
Although we should always keep an eye on it until it hits land
I'm happy if this verifies. No cane summer for us, please.

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Jeff:

Fred:
USAF mission and coastal radars from the FL panhandle indicate that Fred has developed a defined inner core and the surface pressure has fallen to 993mb with winds now of 60mph. Fred has found a small area of favorable conditions that have allowed the storm to intensify overnight and this process should continue up to landfall on the FL panhandle later today. It is possible that Fred may reach hurricane intensity before landfall.

Grace:
USAF missions fixed the center of Grace just south of the southern coast of the Dominican Republic this morning, but the system remains disorganized with scattered to sporadic deep convection near and mainly south of the fixed center. Grace continues to move westward at around 15mph and Grace has tracked south of the expected forecast over the last 24 hours allowing the system to miss Puerto Rico and largely miss the Dominican Republic.

Track:
The weaker and disorganized system continues to track south of both the forecast track and model guidance 24 hours ago. Strong deep layer ridging north of Grace will continue a westward motion with the system passing near or just north of Jamaica and then south of Cuba over the next 48 hours. Since it now appears that Grace will largely miss most of the Caribbean Islands, it is unlikely that Grace will dissipate. Global and hurricane guidance aides have been trending southward over the last 24 hours in response to a weaker Grace and also the westward expansion of a strong deep layer ridge along the US Gulf coast late this week into this weekend. Nearly all of the guidance keeps Grace moving almost due west into the southern Gulf of Mexico by late this week and then into the SW or W Gulf of Mexico by Friday or Saturday. The CMC is a northern outlier right now showing a threat to southern TX late this week. The NHC track is just north of the multi model consensus and some additional south adjustments will likely be needed to the track over the next 24 hours.

While there is building model consensus that Grace will generally remain well south of the upper TX coast, it is important to monitor forecasts for any changes especially since the current state of the system is disorganized and a new or better defined center could form.

Intensity:
While Grace is not directly moving over the islands of the Greater Antilles, the circulation is being impacted by the higher nearby mountains. Intensity guidance does little with Grace for the next 48 hours, even as the system moves over the warm waters of the NW Caribbean Sea. However, once in the southern Gulf of Mexico the hurricane models show significant intensification of Grace and the latest run of the GFS has followed that direction also. Several of the CMC and GFS ensembles show intensification into a hurricane over the SW/W Gulf of Mexico as Grace nears the Mexican coast. Given seemingly favorable upper level and sea surface conditions along the path of Grace over the southern Gulf tends to support some of the stronger solutions and tropical systems in this area of the Gulf tend to have a history of quick development. NHC is currently indicating Grace nearing the Mexican coast as a tropical storm, but a hurricane is certainly possible.

TX Impacts:
No direct impacts of Grace are currently expected on the upper TX coast, however depending on the size of the wind field once in the Gulf of Mexico, some large swells and higher coastal tides may be possible. Greater impacts with squalls and higher seas appears more likely along the lower TX coast into the weekend.

As always with tropical systems, check forecasts frequently for changes.

[sambucol]

Still dont let your guard down. We have all seen that scenario where models take the storm to Northern Mexico or S Tx and as days pass, models begin shifting up the coast. Those calling this a done deal saying its a definite MX hit is way premature. I would not feel comfortable saying its all mexico till 1-2 days out of landfall. You all know models will flip over the next few days. Could go back northern or possibly even further south. But calling it a done deal for MX this early is waaaaay too soon.

I agree. On September 9, 2008, the NHC had Ike going in near Harlingen and we know how that turned out. It’s wise to watch Grace. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/g ... p_5W.shtml

[cperk]

I dont think the NWS would call it if they weren't certain.
Although we should always keep an eye on it until it hits land
I'm happy if this verifies. No cane summer for us, please.

They can't be certain 6 days out this southern shift started Saturday with the GFS and other models started to follow yesterday prior to that the track was mostly the same as Fred. The NWS is going with current modeling as they should be, but if the modeling days from now indicate a weaker high they will adjust accordingly.

[Kingwood36]

So far this season I don't think any system has reached hurricane status have they? They all seem really weak..kinda weird

[ccbluewater]

So far this season I don't think any system has reached hurricane status have they? They all seem really weak..kinda weird

Elsa reached Hurricane status for a day or two.

[Cpv17]

So far this season I don't think any system has reached hurricane status have they? They all seem really weak..kinda weird

There was one briefly back in early July in the Caribbean.

[Stratton20]

Hope The track shifts further north, I would prefer not to have a hot and dry weekend, high pressure sucks lol

[captainbarbossa19]

It is strange to expect so much ridging to develop after experiencing so much troughing most of this summer. I wonder if we are going to have tropical threats well into September?

[captainbarbossa19]

Hey y'all! I am new here. I was invited on this board by Cpv17 from the website Storm2k. I live on the east side of Houston, so I felt like this board would be a good place to join a discussion more relevant to my area. Thanks again for the invite Cpv17!

Welcome Captain.
This is a good, informative board to belong to.
You’ll not only get Hurricane information, but local storm information, etc.
Enjoy.

Thank you. I am looking forward to it!

[Stratton20]

Dr. Levi Cowan said Graces track beyond the Yucatan is still very uncertain!

[cperk]

Hope The track shifts further north, I would prefer not to have a hot and dry weekend, high pressure sucks lol

Be careful what you wish for.

[Stratton20]

Cperk Id rather take a tropical storm here than have a awful high pressure ridge sit over me

[cperk]

Cperk Id rather take a tropical storm here than have a awful high pressure ridge sit over me

.

Yeah but what if it’s a hurricane you don’t get to choose which one it is.

[Stratton20]

Cperk I know that, speaking of which looks like the center of Grace is moving more NW than WNW right now based on the latest reconnaissance flight that is in grace right now, which puts it on a collision course with hispanola , if that happens we could see 2 outcomes. 1. Grace disappates entirely. 2 A new center forms, and this second outcome is very interesting because systems that run over hispanola, if they do reform a center, most of the time ita to the North of the Island so that is a possibility that could have a significant impact on ita track, just something to watch