August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[Cpv17]

Well there is this....to say it's anyone best guess as to where this thing goes is a understatement

Mexico to Florida.

[Cpv17]

Decent sw shift from the NHC:

[DoctorMu]

Well there is this....to say it's anyone best guess as to where this thing goes is a understatement

A true spaghetti western under the ridge.

[DoctorMu]

18z Storm intensity guidance for Grace

So...anything.

[TexasBreeze]

The latest gfs likes southern Mexico!

[DoctorMu]

Not that it means much now...the 18z GFS has Grace limping into Tampico as a depression.

Canadian has Grace following the Freddie's Dead path.

[Scott747]

It's gonna be another 24 hours or so until there's a better handle on which trajectory Grace takes (above/through/below) Hispaniola before things will begin to become a little clearer.

Also there will be an upper level data flight (G-IV) tomorrow that should be ingested beginning on the 0z run Sunday night that should go a long way in helping the models and output.

[Stratton20]

Gotta Love the GFS, from Cat 4 to a weak TD in one run lol

[Cpv17]

Interaction with Hispaniola is screwing with the models. They can’t figure out what to do with it. I say by Monday @12z we’ll know a lot more.

[Stratton20]

At least to me it appears that Grace is moving Westward and not West-Northwestward right now

[Kingwood36]

Here we go

[Stratton20]

18z GEFS ensembles, I know its still early, but I got a bad feeling about Grace.....

[sambucol]

18z GEFS ensembles, I know its still early, but I got a bad feeling about Grace.....

Why do you have a bad feeling about Grace?

[Stratton20]

Sambucol because we havent had any systems come into the Western gulf so far this season I believe, and some areas in the western gulf have water temps nearing 92 degrees, that is rocket fuel potentially for Grace...

[jasons2k]

103F here today. Yep, it’s August….

[TexasBreeze]

The warm waters out there plus the fact of all these recent fronts is a pattern that could weaken the ridge on our side. All about the timing.

[Stratton20]

TexasBreeze weakening the ridge? Is that a bad thing in terms of what potentially happens with Grace?

[TexasBreeze]

Yes it would open the door for Texas or Louisiana to be struck.

[DoctorMu]

TexasBreeze weakening the ridge? Is that a bad thing in terms of what potentially happens with Grace?

That would lift Grace north earlier.

[DoctorMu]

Broken line of storms from Magnolia to Kingwood to south of Beaumont moving south.