That doesn’t fit August climatology at all really. More like late September or October. Strange.
We never had a typical summer pattern setup this year. The whole atmosphere is jacked. Has anyone read about the forest fires in Siberia? It dwarfs what is happening here in the Northwest US. Sad to see. It’s like the whole planet is burning up this year, adding even more junk to the atmosphere, like a terrible feedback mechanism.
Not trying to be Debbie Downer on a Friday but I just became aware of this in the last few days and it’s troubling.
Here's hoping to another cold winter! Not freezing Temps like last yr but cold and some precip!
Heck, I'd just take a Fall with lower dew points and not endless summer!
That doesn’t fit August climatology at all really. More like late September or October. Strange.
We never had a typical summer pattern setup this year. The whole atmosphere is jacked. Has anyone read about the forest fires in Siberia? It dwarfs what is happening here in the Northwest US. Sad to see. It’s like the whole planet is burning up this year, adding even more junk to the atmosphere, like a terrible feedback mechanism.
Not trying to be Debbie Downer on a Friday but I just became aware of this in the last few days and it’s troubling.
Coincides with the latest IPCC report.
So, the ridge weakens after today here in SETx and gives us a nudge again on Tuesday for a few days. But if I'm reading the 500 mb heights on GFS and Euro...the summer death ridge may be history after that (by next weekend). We'll see.
Good for periodic rain in CLL. However, if tropical season in the GoM cranks up it could leave us naked and afraid...
CPV17 probably, im just wondwring why most of the waves up until this point are moving more Northwest rather than taking a southern track in the caribbean
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:50 pm
CPV17 probably, im just wondwring why most of the waves up until this point are moving more Northwest rather than taking a southern track in the caribbean
Trust me I’m wondering that myself. Usually this time of year storms would travel further west before turning north. Atmosphere must be all kinds of jacked up.
CPV17 maybe the bermuda high is weak right now? That could be a reason why these waves arent getting much further west before turning north than the eastern GOM, regardless down the road we probably will eventually have waves that get into the Western GOM, gulf water is fuel for anything that gets their
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:21 pm
CPV17 maybe the bermuda high is weak right now? That could be a reason why these waves arent getting much further west before turning north than the eastern GOM, regardless down the road we probably will eventually have waves that get into the Western GOM, gulf water is fuel for anything that gets their
The 3-4 week outlook from the CPC suggest we might see something towards the end of this month or beginning of September but I really don’t know how accurate that is. I’ve seen many of their outlooks bust.
CPV17 I did see the CPC is “calling for” above normal precipitation around August 20th and beyond so maybe we could see something in the W. GOM or W.Caribbean
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 13, 2021 3:40 pm
CPV17 I did see the CPC is “calling for” above normal precipitation around August 20th and beyond so maybe we could see something in the W. GOM or W.Caribbean
The 3-4 week outlook looks the most favorable for something in the western Gulf.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
310 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021
.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]
PW values range from 1.9 inches over the south to around 1.75
inches over the north. Further heating into the evening should
allow for an expansion of showers and storms inland. Showers
should end shortly after sunset with the loss of heating. MinT
values look similar to the last couple of nights with low
temperatures in the lower/mid 70`s inland and mid/upper 70`s south
and toward the coast.
Conditions looks a bit drier on Saturday with PW values falling
to between 1.60 and 1.75 inches as weak upper level ridging
impinges on the area. However, fcst soundings show very little
capping and convective temperatures around 90 degrees so daytime
heating should generate widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms. MaxT value should again be similar or maybe a touch
warmer than today with a few less clouds and slightly less
precipitation. And just like the past couple of days, any residual
precipitation will end around sunset with the loss of heating.
MinT values will again stay warm with low temperatures only
cooling into the mid and upper 70`s. 43
.LONG TERM [Sunday through Friday]...
Upper level trough near the Great Lakes region will drag a weak
cold front southward along the southeastern CONUS this weekend.
This boundary seems to remain quasi-stationary just north of our
forecast area. However, mesoscale features or boundaries may
develop and surge south into SE TX Saturday night into early next
week. In addition to these boundaries, the combination daytime
heating, tropical moisture associated with Tropical Depression
Fred and sea/bay breeze interaction may trigger more scattered to
widespread convection on Sunday. At this time, severe
thunderstorms are not expected; however, isolated strong gusts
will be possible with any strong storms. WPC has placed most of
our region under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on their
Day 3 outlook; therefore, periods of heavy rainfall are also
possible. This boundary (or boundaries) may still linger over the
region through mid-week. Have continued with 20-60 percent chance
for precipitation from Sunday - Tuesday.
Ridge aloft builds back across the region towards the end of the
work week, leading to typical summer pattern. Diurnally-driven
convection will be possible each day given persistent onshore flow
and increasing inflow of Gulf moisture. 05
&&
.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...
Showers and thunderstorms developing near coastal TAF sites will
expand inland with heating this afternoon. Will carry VCTS for all
TAF sites and TEMPO accordingly as the precipitation nears area TAF
sites. Ceilings are expected to be mainly VFR with occasional
MVFR cigs during periods of precip. Generally VFR conds expected
tonight. PW values remain high enough that daytime heating should
again trigger late morning and early afternoon storms and will
once again carry VCSH/VCTS for area TAF sites. 43
&&
.MARINE...
Generally light east to southeast winds and seas from 2 to 3 ft are
expected tonight and into the weekend. Seas may increase up to 4 ft
at times offshore. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected each day, mainly during the morning hours. The best
chance for thunderstorms looks possible on Sunday ahead of a weak
boundary dragging southward from the Central Plains. Gusty/erratic
winds and elevated seas are possible on Sunday. 05
This is the second August front sniffed out a couple of weeks ago. Our summer fronts have been overperforming, so I'll side with the front back-dooring into the area...and I'll wager a 50-60% chance of rain Sunday - Tuesday. The front could always blast through like the last front and reach the coast, causing a near bust of rain for us in CLL.
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 13, 2021 6:09 pm
DoctorMu I hear the term back door front often, what exactly does a back door front mean?
You know how fronts usually come from the north or northwest of us? Well back door fronts come from the northeast of us. Basically from Arkansas and Louisiana.
18z GFS is weird, takes PTC#7 into the gulf and splits its energy into two parts, prt of its energy heads towarda the Texas Coastline while it still slowly develops the other piece before making landfall in the pan handle of florida
, what are yalls thoughts on this?
