August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[Cpv17]

Right now it looks like it wants to take the same path as Fred. Double whammy for Florida possibly? Time will tell

[txbear]

Scott747 jesus christ dude I wasnt attacking you... I was simply stating that its too early to know where 95L will track, there are alot of questions that remain to be answered with this system, you really need to calm down

Simmer down. You harp on model run after model run, but when someone points out something that is in contrast to what you want or do, you are all up in arms.

I would also ease up on “not attacking” Scott. I would suggest you go back and read some of the posts from this extremely knowledgeable hurricane veteran before piping off.

[Stratton20]

Im not here to argue with yall, how about we all stop with the negative comments, Scott747 if it seemed like I offended or attacked you then im sorry because I had no intention of it, Im just a pretty opinionated person lol, lets just get back to watching the tropics and discussing what may happen down the rod with 95L

[Texaspirate11]

How many canes have you been in Stratton?
Im just curious. I love your passion but there are many of us who have experience yet always learning.

[Stratton20]

TexasPirate11 Ive been through Ike, , Rita and Harvey as Hurricanes, as for tropical storms, Allison, BIll and Imelda so definitely not as many as some people on here

[Texaspirate11]

TexasPirate11 Ive been through Ike, , Rita and Harvey as Hurricanes, as for tropical storms, Allison, BIll and Imelda so definitely not as many as some people on here

Okay then you know how models work, and canes can turn on a dime.
The bottom line to all of this is to prepare and watch. learn and hope for the best
Thanks for the quick response!

[Stratton20]

TexasPirate11 exactly! Hope nothing comes our way, but we still always have to watch, especially since the gulf sea temps are approaching 90 degrees widespread, that is concerning

[Texaspirate11]

TexasPirate11 exactly! Hope nothing comes our way, but we still always have to watch, especially since the gulf sea temps are approaching 90 degrees widespread, that is concerning

Its toasty all right -
yikes.......
we should always be prepared all year round - as snowmaggedon taught us.
I think I worked harder after that disaster that than any cane thrown at us....
Our wx isn't for the faint of heart, right?

[Stratton20]

Texaspirate11 absolutely its not for the faint of heart , we got alot to track in the coming days , looks like a busy next 2 weeks potentially in the tropics

[Texaspirate11]

Yup so we just need to chill - prepare and I know watching is the "fun" part (if one can describe it as that)
I know I'll be busy.....take care Stratton!

[Stratton20]

Texaspirate11 take care as well!

[Stratton20]

Thats a pretty big flare up of thunderstorms on the yucatan pennisula , are those just general thunderstorms?

[Cpv17]

95L now up to 60%.

[DoctorMu]

TexasPirate11 Ive been through Ike, , Rita and Harvey as Hurricanes, as for tropical storms, Allison, BIll and Imelda so definitely not as many as some people on here

Allison? So, you'll be a 21 year old Freshman at A&M?

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu Ill be 21 on August 29th and no I will be a Junior at A&M

[srainhoutx]

Scott747 jesus christ dude I wasnt attacking you... I was simply stating that its too early to know where 95L will track, there are alot of questions that remain to be answered with this system, you really need to calm down

Hey there Stratton20. Clearly you have absolutely no idea who you are dealing with and the years of experience and expertise that Scott747 brings to our Weather Community. I suggest you dial back your rhetoric and learn something about the dynamics of this board and its extremely knowledgeable members. It's ok to be enthusiastic, but it's something totally different when you tell someone to chill out and relax when you do not like what was stated. Walk gently young man. Understood?

[Stratton20]

95L is an interesting story tonight, from what it seems their could possibly be a relocation of whatever center is their to the SW, I see the exposed center with all of the convection to the SW of the storm where their does seem to be a mid level center , if this relocation happens then 95L would take a further track south in the caribbean , at least thats what I see, opinions are welcomed

[Scott747]

Sounds like a good amount of recon data is being assimilated into the 0z runs tonight. Should increase the confidence for the Fred forecast and could also help out in the mid range with 95l.

[Cpv17]

I believe 95L is going to be one of those usual cases where models had development in the extremely long fantasy range but then dropped it only to pick it back up again in the short range. I see this scenario all the time with models. Kinda like during the winter when models show an Artic blast in the long range and then drop it and then pick back up on it in the short.

[Stratton20]

It seems like the GFS is having a really hard time picking up on 95L, I dont know why that is, is it not picking up on the convection associated with 95L?