Hurricane Nate: SW Gulf of Mexico

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srainhoutx
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BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201109061850
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
AL, 96, 2011090618, , BEST, 0, 206N, 938W, 25, 1008, DB, 34
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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18Z...very early track guidance...
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09062011 18Z 96L al962011.png
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gregco31
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Maybe having totally off early guidance is our key. Seems like with Lee there was so much certainty we would get something then nothing so how about certainty we get nothing, maybe that leads to something.
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Larissa
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another storm with a split personality that is probably just toying with us with their hint of rain.

000
FXUS64 KMOB 070911
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
411 AM CDT WED SEP 7 2011

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT ON)...BUY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE REMAINS OF
LEE CONTINUE TO MEANDER AROUND OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS...THOUGH HAVE
SHIFTED TO OVER THE UPPER MISS RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO...A
WILD-CARD IN THE EXTENDED HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
IS ON THE MOVE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT IN THE MOVEMENT OF THIS
NEXT SYSTEM...BETWEEN THEM...THOUGH RUN TO RUN...EACH MODEL HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT. THE DIFFERENCE LIES IN THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE GULF AND RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF FROM
THE ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF AND THE END OF THE NAM ARE ADVERTISING THIS
NEXT SYSTEM HEADING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WITH THE ECMWF
ADVERTISING IT REACHING THE LA GULF COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND MAINTAINS A WEAK TROUGH/STRONGER RIDGE
COMBO THAT PUSHES THE SYSTEM TOWARDS OLD MEX.

GFS ENSEMBLES TAKE A HYBRID APPROACH...MEANDERING THIS SYSTEM INTO
THE SOUTHERN GULF...ENOUGH TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE
LAND AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK...SO HAVE WENT THAT
APPROACH FOR THE EXTENDED.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 7 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA...AND ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN...LOCATED ABOUT 1455 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT MOVES LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
LOW THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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12Z...
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09072011 12Z 96L al962011.png
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Well south landfall likely, meaning Mexico, far South Texas. NE trek not likely unless center does not form where currently expected. Maybe some moisture gets thrown this way. It would need to be potent, otherwise all of this dry air over us will negate it all.
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The 12Z GFS is suggesting a very small, yet potent cyclone developing in the Bay of Campeche. This could well be a Karl type Hurricane...
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09072011 12Z gfs_wnatl_078_850_vort_ht.gif
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srainhoutx
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RECON schedule for 96L will include a G-IV mission for upper air sampling. A current mission has just departed as well...

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 07 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
         TCPOD NUMBER.....11-099

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM MARIA
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
       A. 08/2000Z
       B. AFXXX 0114A MARIA
       C. 08/1700Z
       D. 14.3N 52.0W
       E. 08/1930Z TO 08/2230Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76      FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
       A. 08/1800Z                A. 09/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 02IIA INVEST      B. NOAA9 03IIA SURV
       C. 08/1530Z                C. 08/1730Z
       D. 20.5N 90.7W             F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
       E. 08/1730Z TO 08/2200Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. MARIA: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 09/1200Z.
       B. SUSPECT AREA: A G-IV MISSION FOR 10/0000Z.
    4. REMARK: MISSION FOR HURRICANE KATIA AT 07/1700Z
       CANCELED AT 07/1110Z.

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Ptarmigan
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The NAM model got it right with Lee to a certain extent.
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z Euro is suggesting a stalled storm SE of Brownville now...
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09072011 12Z Euro 12zeurotropical500mbSLP072.gif
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The 12Z Euro suggests landfall just N of Tampico around hour 120. The Canadian is now all alone with the NE track suggestion...
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09072011 12Z Euro 12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP120.gif
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RECON data suggests an elongated center of circulation. SFMR data also reporting 44kt unflagged W winds.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al962011_al152011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201109071925
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
AL, 15, 2011090718, , BEST, 0, 201N, 929W, 40, 1004, TS,
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
400 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011

...TROPICAL STORM NATE FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS ISSUED FOR MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 92.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST. NATE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION
IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. DATA FROM PEMEX
OIL RIGS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43
MPH...70 KM/H...GUSTING TO 50 MPH...80 KM/H.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE UNIT AIRCRAFT MEASURED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT...AND COULD CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL... NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE...TABASCO...AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/ZELINSKY
Attachments
09072011 4PM Nate 223916W5_NL_sm.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
400 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CURVED BANDING
FEATURES NOTED. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LAND AND PEMEX OIL
RIGS...ALONG WITH AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DATA...SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED...WITH
LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOTED. THUS ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED
ON THIS SYSTEM. SINCE THE RECON PLANE FOUND 53 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL
ALONG WITH SFMR VALUES OF 40 TO 45 KT...THE CYCLONE IS BEING NAMED
NATE WITH A CONSERVATIVE INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40 KT.

NATE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS WITH LITTLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING
FACTOR IS A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THIS DRY AIR WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CENTER...IF AT ALL...IN A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. MOST MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.

THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING DURING THE DAY...WITH A LONG-TERM
MOTION OF ABOUT 110/2. NATE IS IN AN AREA OF VERY WEAK STEERING
FLOW BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF LEE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. LITTLE NET MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO THIS PATTERN. AFTER THAT TIME...A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO BUILD...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE NATE TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTH...EVENTUALLY BENDING TO
THE LEFT AS THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MEXICAN
RIDGE. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE RIDGES...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO
THE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS...A BIT SOUTH OF THE ECMWF MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 20.2N 92.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 20.0N 92.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 20.1N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 20.4N 92.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 21.0N 92.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 22.5N 93.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 23.0N 95.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 23.0N 96.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/ZELINSKY
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Bluefalcon
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God knows we need the rain, but if the model choices are Mex vs La. At this time I'll take Mex. I'm a Firefighter in Austin and we cannot take another near miss to the East. Central Texas, like most of Texas, is a tenderbox waiting to explode. At least a Mex strike will keep the winds out of the SE with ample humidity to suppress wildfires. Lord knows I would like it right on top of us, but that doesn't look like an option at this time.
Put the wet stuff on the red stuff!
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
700 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011

...NATE ALMOST STATIONARY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 92.6W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST. NATE IS
CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND NATE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE CITY OF
CAMPECHE RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH...56 KM/H...
AND A WIND GUST OF 46 MPH...75 KM/HR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TONIGHT...AND COULD CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL... NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE...TABASCO...AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NATE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152011
700 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2011

...NATE MEANDERING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 92.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM NE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 145 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST. NATE IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 1 MPH...2 KM/H. AN ERRATIC
EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

RAINFALL...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER THE
MEXICAN STATES OF CAMPECHE...TABASCO...AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN
THE WARNING AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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09082011 Nate 4 AM 084657W5_NL_sm.gif
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12Z...
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09082011 12Z Tracks Nate al152011.png
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