Extratropical Depression Lee: Inland N Gulf States

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011

...LEE DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 91.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST. LEE IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
MOVE SLOWLY OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...
445 KM...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS...A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH...
72 KM/H AND A GUST TO 49 MPH...79 KM/H. NUMEROUS OFFSHORE OIL RIGS
ALSO CONTINUE TO REPORT SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS A FEW
HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

A STORM SURGE VALUE OF MORE THAN 4 FEET RECENTLY OCCURRED JUST SOUTH
OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA AT AMERADA PASS.

RECENT REPORTS FROM OIL RIGS AND COASTAL MONITORING STATIONS
INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING.

STORM SURGE...WATER LEVELS OF AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. WATER
LEVELS OF AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ARE OCCURRING
ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS...INCLUDING MOBILE BAY.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TORNADOES...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN
ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[biggerbyte]

No more wishing and hoping, dreamcasting and believing/disbelieving... It is over. Lee is not coming back for fruit loops and party teasers. At least we know we have to move on now. In a way I wish last night would have never happened. It only served to dish up more disappointment.

So, I believe we are officially forkless now.

Done!

[djmike]

Rained all night and still raining today...nothing major though. 2.00" so far here in Beaumont and still counting since yesterday. Some areas in the Golden Triangle close to 3.00"! Winds have really died down, prob cause Lee is moving away now NE. Trees and grass our really singing hallelujah!

Sorry Houston, once again it seems we have hogged all the rain...

[Rip76]

Ok, Lee

Is this thing stalled again?

[Belmer]

For what it's worth, the Austin/Round Rock has a futurecast in which it shows a storm developing by early/mid-this week
http://austin.ynn.com/content/weather/

Once you're there you can go to the left side where it says, Futurecast or you can scroll down and it will show the futurecast. Just click on it and you can see from there. Hopefully that link works. BUT, if not, it shows the storm getting close to Texas. Doesn't show it hitting Texas, just shows it spinning up into a storm moving North. We'll see...
But it's not like this is a LONG range computer model. I mean in the futurecast, it shows Lee moving NE and then this storm forming by just Tuesday, well... tomorrow (since it's technically Monday). So we should know something by Monday night into Tuesday-Wednesday.

[rnmm]

Thank you for explaining Belmer, it just blinks/flashes on my screen and never loads the graph.