Extratropical Depression Lee: Inland N Gulf States

Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Katdaddy
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Joe B tweeted WGOM homebrew for Labor Day. The moisture is pooling over the W Caribbean and the pattern change will push this into the GOM. Lowering pressures advertised in model runs along with very warm SSTs could lead to tropical concerns. Time to pay attention to the GOM especially since we are headed into a holiday weekend.
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Will Texas be the Next Target for a Hurricane?
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... target.asp

Accuweather is suggesting something could brew in the tropics.
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srainhoutx
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The 00Z GFS, Euro and UKMET suggest a big slug of tropical moisture heading toward the LA and TX. While the models are slowing development until later in the weekend/Labor Day, they do suggest increase rain chances and develop a closed low. The GFS suggests a low off the S/SW LA Coast meandering W and S along the Middle/Upper TX Coast by Monday into Tuesday, while the Euro closes off a low S of SE TX heading S and W to near offshore of Corpus next Tuesday that eventually comes ashore near Brownsville/NE MX...
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08302011 00Z GFS f144.gif
08302011 00Z Euro f144.gif
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Well, for 2 days now GFS has picked up on 1, if not 2 areas that may develop. At one point there were 2 lows in the GOM at the same time. Looks like the models though are coming better into agreement of something forming, be it in GOM or from Carib influence. Image suggesting whatever develops could park offshore and hug the coast and indeed move slowly West...that would dump plenty of rain over a rather large area...this bears watching indeed.

Image
By paulinhouston at 2011-08-30
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Morning WFO discussions from Coastal Louisiana and Texas:

New Orleans:

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR BUT QUITE DIFFERENT AT THE SAME TIME
FOR LATE THIS WEEK FROM 24 HRS AGO. SIMILAR IN THE FACT THAT A WET
PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST GRADUALLY
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DIFFERENCE IS THAT
MODELS NOW SHOW AN UPPER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN GULF THE END OF THIS WEEK AND MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THE LA GULF
COAST. GFS BRINGS THIS TROPICAL WAVE FURTHER NORTH BEFORE TAKING IS
BACK SOUTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM IS NOT PICKED UP BY NORTHERLY STREAM
TROUGH. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW.


Lake Charles:

A REX BLOCK LOW FORMS OVER THE GULF IN RESPONSE TO
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THIS WEEK.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SLOWLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
CHOSE TO GO WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL WHICH IS MORE CONSERVATIVE IN
NOT WINDING THIS SYSTEM UP AS QUICKLY.


Houston/Galveston:

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF A TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF CUBA. THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS EVOLUTION AND DEVELOPMENT. OF THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS...THE NAM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPING A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM ON THU. THIS IS DIFFERENT FROM
PREVIOUS PROGGS WHICH SHOWED A SURGE OF TROPICAL AIR WITH PRECIP
WATER VALUES AROUND 2.5 INCHES. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE DOES NOT MOVE INTO
THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY SO BACKED OFF ON POPS WED/WED NIGHT.
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS THOUGHT BUT
AT THE SAME TIME ARE MUCH SLOWER BY ABOUT 24 HOURS TO DEVELOP A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NAM DEEPENS THE CYCLONE TO AROUND 990MB ON
THE 06Z RUN DURING THE DAY FRI WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE A WEAK
DEPRESSION. THE GFS/ECMWF EVENTUALLY DEVELOP TROPICAL STORMS BUT
ARE SLOWER TO DO SO WITH VERY DIFFERENT TRACKS.
SURPRISINGLY...NONE OF THE MODELS TAKE THE SYSTEM INLAND AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE N PLAINS FRI AS WELL AS WHEN
ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SAT/SUN. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND THU/FRI BUT THEN RETRACT BACK OVER
THE 4 CORNERS REGION. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF RING A COLD FRONT INTO
TX ON MONDAY WHICH SEEMS TO KEEP ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE GULF
BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE LOWER TX COAST. TO SAY THE LEAST...THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST


Corpus Christi:

AFTER DAYS OF GOOD
CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE BEGINNING OF A POTENTIALLY WET PERIOD
BEGINNING LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO INTERACTION OF AN UPR LOW AND
TROPICAL WAVE...MODELS HAVE THROWN A MAJOR CURVEBALL TO FORECASTERS
IN THE FORM OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGGED TO FORM ACROSS THE WRN
GULF. 00Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM ALL DEVELOP A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL LOW ACROSS THE WRN GULF BY THE WEEKEND. THE NAM IS
EXTREMELY AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM IN ONLY 48 HRS OR SO
WHICH SEEMS WAY OVERDONE GIVEN THE CURRENT UNORGANIZED APPEARANCE ON
SAT IMAGERY IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN. CANADIAN AND UKMET MODELS SUGGEST
MORE OF A STRONG OPEN WAVE MVG INTO SRN TEXAS/NE MEXICO WITH LOTS OF
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THU AND BEYOND. MODELS THAT SPIN UP A SYSTEM
KEEP IT MORE EAST OF THE AREA INITIALLY AND ACTUALLY DRAW MOISTURE
AWAY FROM S TX. EVEN THESE SOLNS EVENTUALLY PAINT A WETTER PICTURE
AS THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS W-SW DOWN THE TEXAS COAST.


Brownsville:

AFTER THE INITIAL
WAVE OF MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE LOWER VALLEY WED NIGHT AND THU THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS IS A CHALLENGE. ALL MODELS NOW
BRING A CLOSED SURFACE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL GULF BY SATURDAY. NO
MODELS ARE PARTICULARLY BULLISH ON A STRONG SYSTEM...BUT OBVIOUSLY
BEARS WATCHING. IT IS LATE AUGUST...GULF WATERS ARE VERY WARM AND
TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. INITIALLY THE LOW
BECOMES ORGANIZED AND APPEARS TO HEAD FOR THE HOUSTON AREA BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIVERGE IN WHAT HAPPENS NEXT. ONE OF TWO
SCENARIOS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. ONE OPTION IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE
NORTHEAST IF IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES AS A WEAK 5H TROUGH
SINKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT TROUGH WILL STAY
TOO FAR NORTH AND THE CIRCULATION CENTER WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS THE LOWER RGV BY WED OF NEXT WEEK.
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srainhoutx
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While we are waiting to see what will become of the modeled tropical disturbance for the Western Gulf, here is a read from the HPC of a somewhat similar scenario that wxman57 mentioned yesterday with Frances 1998...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/r ... s1998.html
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A Frances scenario would be great IMO for us here in Southeast, Texas. What we do NOT need is for this to rap up into a hurricane and get shoved down into Mexico with the ridge building back in which isn't out of the question. This could turn into a very crappy scenario for us. I'm not getting my hopes up just yet.
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The 12Z GFS suggests more of a Louisiana issue...but until we start to see actual development, caution should be the theme, IMO...
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08302011 12Z gfs_wnatl_132_850_vort_ht.gif
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srainhoutx
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By Tuesday, the GFS suggests a closed circulation shifting WSW just S of Galveston as the Upper Ridge builds in from the W...
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08302011 12Z gfs_wnatl_165_850_vort_ht.gif
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srainhoutx
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By late Tuesday, the GFS suggests the closed low has shifted further down the Texas Coast S and E of Corpus as the ridge builds back in...
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08302011 12Z gfs_wnatl_177_850_vort_ht.gif
08302011 12Z gfs_wnatl_177_500_vort_ht.gif
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srainhoutx
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By early Wednesday morning, the low is ESE of Brownsville...
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08302011 12Z gfs_wnatl_186_850_vort_ht.gif
08302011 12Z gfs_wnatl_186_500_vort_ht.gif
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well crap.
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That scenario, which is a possible one, does not favor our area. High builds back in, tropical mischief stays east and south, we get a dry flow between the tropical system and the ridge. Result is continued hot and dry. There has even been some talk here and there of a front coming down, which would further prevent any tropical system from getting to us. Lovely! This is only one scenario, folks, but it's there. Nothing is for sure yet. I should go ahead and mention that the NWS is already losing confidence in rainfall, in the short term, at least. We are down from 60%/50% to 30% and 40% chances. We can expect wavering in the forecast for a bit.
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For what it's worth, the 12Z Canadian...
08302011 12Z Canadian Hour 108 235_100.gif
08302011 12Z  Canadian 120 236_100.gif
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Wouldn't pay too much attention to any one model .... this system would be a much better scenario for us however if it comes in as a Tropical Wave and doesn't develop anytime soon. We all know not to discount any type of scenario this time of year in the GOM. Don't let these models discourage you folks they will continue to come up with different solutions with every run ..... :)
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Mentioned in the TWO: 10%

337
ABNT20 KNHC 301734
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 630 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ACCOMPANIED
BY DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Last edited by srainhoutx on Tue Aug 30, 2011 12:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: edit to add graphic
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djjordan
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Well we all know this board is gonna be ramping up as the week goes by. Gonna be an interesting weekend to say the least.
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z Euro has backed down regarding any early development. That model suggests an open wave/inverted trough through hour 72...
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08302011 12Z Euro 12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP072.gif
08302011 12Z Euro 12zeurotropical500mbSLP072.gif
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srainhoutx
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The Euro through hour 144 keeps a possible monsoonal depression down near S TX/NE MX. That model never really strengthens to a true closed low, for what it's worth...
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08302011 12Z 12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP144.gif
08302011 12Z 12zeurotropical500mbSLP144.gif
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srainhoutx
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By hour 216...(long range)... the Euro suggests a low does form while being pushed S into the Bay of Campeche with the front.
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