Extratropical Depression Lee: Inland N Gulf States

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am19psu
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srainhoutx wrote:The 12Z GFS is a bit more aggressive today with developing a Western Gulf disturbance. We may need to keep an eye out for a quick spin up and just possibly a depression or tropical storm forming. We will see...
I like the idea of a quick spin up in the Western Gulf this week, but probably a bit quicker than what the 12z GFS is spitting out. I'm thinking more like Thursday/Friday. I'm not sure why the GFS wants to keep redeveloping the center back east over a three day period. In any case, not much of a wind threat, I don't think, but should bring you guys some much needed rain.
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srainhoutx
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am19psu wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:The 12Z GFS is a bit more aggressive today with developing a Western Gulf disturbance. We may need to keep an eye out for a quick spin up and just possibly a depression or tropical storm forming. We will see...
I like the idea of a quick spin up in the Western Gulf this week, but probably a bit quicker than what the 12z GFS is spitting out. I'm thinking more like Thursday/Friday. I'm not sure why the GFS wants to keep redeveloping the center back east over a three day period. In any case, not much of a wind threat, I don't think, but should bring you guys some much needed rain.
That makes sense, Adam. The 12Z Euro seems to agree as well...
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08292011 12Z Euro 12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP072.gif
08292011 12Z Euro 12zeurotropical500mbSLP072.gif
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z Euro suggests a TC along the Middle/Upper Texas Coast late this week...
08292011 12Z Euro 12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP120.gif
08292011 12Z Euro 12zeurotropical500mbSLP120.gif
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I am liking the chances for some sort of widespread flow of moisture towards the end of the week. Will a system develop? I am not sure, especially with how long it has been taking other systems to form but the SST's out there are pretty high and it is in the middle of the season. Overall I am glad that a pattern change looks to be on the horizon.

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srainhoutx
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HPC Model Diagnostics Discussion through the 12Z Euro output:

...ENERGY OVER THE CNTRL/NWRN GULF OF MEXICO ON THURS...

PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/12Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF CONSENSUS

THE 12Z NAM IS A STG OUTLIER WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LOW
CENTER OVER THE CNTRL AND NWRN GULF OF MEXICO BY THURS COMPARED TO
THE 12Z GFS...12Z UKMET...AND 12Z ECMWF. THE 12Z GEM GLOBAL DOES
SHOW SOME RELATIVELY STRONGER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN GULF OF
MEXICO...BUT EVEN THIS ATTM IS LIKELY OVERDONE. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN
AND 00Z ECENS MEAN SUPPORT THE RELATIVELY WEAKER/FLATTER
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF CAMP WHICH SHOW A BROAD INVERTED TROF THROUGH THIS
PD...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOW SHOW A LITTLE MORE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE W CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO.

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wxman57
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I sure hope it doesn't rain all through the Labor Day weekend. That would be terrible! (a little reverse weather psychology).
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wxman57 wrote:I sure hope it doesn't rain all through the Labor Day weekend. That would be terrible! (a little reverse weather psychology).

Now this is funny!!! :lol: I was just telling my family and friends how proud I was of myself being able to forecast Texas weather all by myself, Hot and Dry and repeat! :lol:
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wxman57
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What the GFS and Euro are predicting reminds me a lot of Frances in 1998. I wouldn't bet on it verifying, but it is interesting. For those of you who don't remember, Frances wound up in the NW/N-Central Gulf for 3-4 days before finally moving inland near Corpus. But all the squalls were well north of the center. Corpus got nothing - no wind, no rain. We got dumped on, and the northern Gulf had 50-60 mph east winds for 3 days. My yard could use 21" of rain about now...

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srainhoutx
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Nice and long discussion from Brownsville WFO this afternoon...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...AND NOW IT GETS
INTERESTING. THE BIG PICTURE STRONGLY SUPPORTS A CHANGE FROM THE
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED FOR MOST OF THE SUMMER TO A
MORE HUMID...WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND THUS LOWER TEMPERATURES AS
THE CALENDAR TURNS TO OUR RAINIEST MONTH OF THE YEAR ON AVERAGE.

AS IRENE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXIT...THE "CANICULA" RIDGE WHICH
HAS BEEN PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NORTHWEST MEXICO
WILL SPREAD TEMPORARILY INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL OPEN THE
DOOR FOR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF...INCLUDING THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COAST...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THEN THINGS GET DICEY. A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE RIDGES AS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. PORTION
REESTABLISHES WHILE THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT BUT HOLDS.
WITHIN THE WEAKNESS COMES THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FESTERING WEAKNESS
TO WRAP UP INTO A CLOSED LOW. SUCH CLOSED LOWS AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER 88 DEGREE WATER ARE
NOTHING BUT TROUBLE...AND SUCH HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR A NUMBER OF
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE PAST. A LOT STILL HAS
TO HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND THE WEEKEND...BUT THE 12Z GFS...12Z
ECMWF...12Z CANADIAN GEM ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH SOME KIND OF
DEVELOPMENT AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. QUESTIONS AS TO
WHERE...WHEN...HOW MUCH...AND FINAL TRACK CANNOT BE RESOLVED NOW.
NEEDLESS TO SAY ANYONE WITH LABOR DAY WEEKEND PLANS ON THE TEXAS
COAST NEED TO BE VIGILANT AND KEEP A SHARP EYE ON THE WEATHER.


AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...INHERITED FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
RAISED RAIN CHANCES BASED ON QUICKER MOVEMENT OF INITIAL BURST OF
MOISTURE...AND THIS IS SPOT ON WITH RAIN CHANCES REACHING 50/50
NEAR THE COAST AND LOWER FARTHER INLAND. WITH THE CHANGE OF AIR
MASS AND DEVELOPING CONVECTION AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE HELD DOWN
IN THE 90S EXCEPT LOWER 100S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. MCALLEN AND FALFURRIAS MIGHT SQUEEZE ONE MORE 100
DEGREE DAY TO CLOSE AUGUST...WHICH WOULD TIE THE 29 DAYS OF AUGUST
2009.

HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THE NUMEROUS CATEGORY BASED
ON DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...MODEST VERTICAL MOTION...AND EITHER
MORNING DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF QUICKLY SENDING BOUNDARIES AND
WORKING ON UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE MID VALLEY TO PROVIDE GOOD
COVERAGE OUT TO AT LEAST THE HIDALGO/STARR COUNTY LINE. WITH THE
RAIN EXPECTED TO FEED OFF LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THEN LEAVE
CIRRUS (AT LEAST) IN ITS WAKE HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO OR A SHADE
BELOW GUIDANCE...UPPER 90S FAR WEST AND LOWER 90S JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE ELSE. WILL NOT MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND 2 INCHES IN A HURRY ARE NEVER OUT OF THE QUESTION
WITH THIS SETUP.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY`S FORECAST IS A BIT MORE DIFFICULT. AS
MENTIONED THIS TIME SUNDAY...THE INITIAL FORCING WILL BE CHANNELED
FROM THE WEST CENTRAL GULF TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND
LOUISIANA...LEAVING THE VALLEY IN A BIT OF A DEAD ZONE. THAT
SAID...MEAN RH REMAINS AT OR ABOVE 70 PERCENT AND WHILE MUCH IS
HELD ABOVE 700 MB THERE IS ENOUGH EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW DOWN LOW TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY AIDED BY DAYTIME
HEATING. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LOWER INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
SO DESPITE THE CLOUDS EXPECT AT LEAST 40 PERCENT COVERAGE ON
FRIDAY. SATURDAY IS INTERESTING IF YOU BELIEVE THE MOST RECENT
MODEL RUNS...WHICH SHOW DEEP LAYER /NORTHERLY/ FLOW WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. HUNCH IS MORE OF AN OVERCAST DAY WITH
ENOUGH SURFACE WARMING TO TRIGGER SOME RAIN...BUT MUCH MAY BE
LIGHT AFTER ANY INITIAL CONVECTION DRIPPING FROM MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE THICKER CLOUDS EACH DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AFTERNOON MAXIMA PEAK IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEY AND AROUND 90 OR SO
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT LOWER 90S WEST. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER OWING TO CLIMATOLOGY AND UNCERTAINTY ON FINAL
SITUATION...JUST A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON WHAT DEVELOPS ALONG OR
NEAR THE TEXAS OR NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST. FOR NOW HAVE EXTENDED
THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES...AND PUSHED RAIN INTO THE MODERATE CATEGORY. AS FOR
WINDS...HAD TO DO SOME SURGERY BASED ON THE TRENDS BUT DID NOT
BITE COMPLETELY ON THE 25+ KNOT SPEEDS UNTIL WE GET A BETTER SENSE
OF THE SYSTEM`S DEVELOPMENT AND INTERACTION WITH ANY INCREASE IN
HIGHER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AS ALWAYS...STAY TUNED
FOR DETAILS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
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Ptarmigan
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If something developed in the Gulf of Mexico, it probably would be a tropical storm. If named, it would be Lee.
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