2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Coming to an End

[srainhoutx]

RECON tasked for the Gulf feature...

Code: Select all

NOUS42 KNHC 061515
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT TUE 06 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
         TCPOD NUMBER.....11-098

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE KATIA
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
       A. 07/1700Z
       B. AFXXX 0212A KATIA
       C. 07/1330Z
       D. 30.5N 66.5W
       E. 07/1630Z TO 07/1930Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
       A. 07/1800Z
       B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST
       C. 07/1500Z
       D. 20.5N 92.0W
       E. 07/1730Z TO 07/2200Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A SECOND MISSION
       INTO THE SUSPECT AREA AT 08/1800Z.
    4. REMARK: NOAA G-IV RESEARCH MISSION FOR HURRICANE
       KATIA TAKING OFF AT 07/1100Z.

[srainhoutx]

We have a fruit salad in the Atlantic...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 6 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
KATIA...LOCATED ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING ABOUT 725 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER
TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT ANY
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE SLOW. AN AIR FORCE
PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AREA ON WEDNESDAY...IF
NECESSARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BRING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER
THESE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]

There are indications that the Western Caribbean could become active in the longer range. The GFS (06Z) and the Euro ensembles suggest that area may need to be watched as we move further into the month of September...

[PaulEInHouston]

This mornings GFS and ECMWF runs are rather consistent on shifting/building a large ridge to the Eastern CONUS and offshore to Western Atlantic. Models also show the death ridge flattening out over the 4 corners towards weeks end as well as hint at lowering pressures in the Carribean/GOM. May be an area to watch later in the week/this coming weekend for possible development of a tropical system. Hopefully the pattern change might hold and we might at least see some tropical moisture from the GOM towards end of the week along the seabreeze.

[redneckweather]

I've been watching the models seeing this Paul and glad to see someone on here finally chime in about it. I haven't given up hope but as a huge weather lover, you talk about a down right boring pattern. I haven't given up but our time for getting relief for the tropics is coming to an end pretty darn soon.

[Andrew]

As svrwx0503 and Paul were posting, there are some indications of a pretty decent trough and strong ridge forming over the east CONUS. The models do indicate the pressures may lower over the Atlantic and Carribean but at this point no organization is showing up in the models. I am more excited with the possibility of the trough and the lower temps. Hopefully this will give us a good line of thunderstorms.

[PaulEInHouston]

As svrwx0503 and Paul were posting, there are some indications of a pretty decent trough and strong ridge forming over the east CONUS. The models do indicate the pressures may lower over the Atlantic and Carribean but at this point no organization is showing up in the models. I am more excited with the possibility of the trough and the lower temps. Hopefully this will give us a good line of thunderstorms.

Regarding Carribean, models still showing lowering pressures across the basin, but I'm thinking more that this is a northward progression of the persistent monsoon trough influenced by the building/shifting E/SE and Atlantic ridge. Something could surely spin up, but I think our window of receiving any beneficial tropical system is closing by the end of next week once that cold front moves through and offshore.

[srainhoutx]

I've been 'out of pocket' since late last week, but I'm hearing that a robust MJO is developing across the E Pacific...

[wxman57]

There's definitely no MJO coming, it remains very weak and in Asia/Indian Ocean. You can check on the status here in the weekly MJO discussion:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... update.pdf

However, one of the researchers on the "tstorms" email list is talking about the convectively-coupled kelvin wave (CCKW) moving across the Pacific. The suppressed phase of this wave has just reached the East Pacific and will traverse the Atlantic basin over the next 5-7 days. Beyond then, the active phase of this CCKW reaches the Atlantic. The active phase should result in a burst of activity after the 20th.

[maroondreams]

There's definitely no MJO coming, it remains very weak and in Asia/Indian Ocean. You can check on the status here in the weekly MJO discussion:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... update.pdf

However, one of the researchers on the "tstorms" email list is talking about the convectively-coupled kelvin wave (CCKW) moving across the Pacific. The suppressed phase of this wave has just reached the East Pacific and will traverse the Atlantic basin over the next 5-7 days. Beyond then, the active phase of this CCKW reaches the Atlantic. The active phase should result in a burst of activity after the 20th.

WOW.. I didn't know a single paragraph could make me feel like a complete idiot. LOL. What exactly is an "MJO" if you don't mind me asking.

[Ptarmigan]

WOW.. I didn't know a single paragraph could make me feel like a complete idiot. LOL. What exactly is an "MJO" if you don't mind me asking.

MJO is short for Madden–Julian Oscillation.
http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/not ... 2/mjo.html

It is from the Indian Ocean and connected to the Indian monsoon. Pineapple express are from MJO.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pineapple_Express

[wxman57]

WOW.. I didn't know a single paragraph could make me feel like a complete idiot. LOL. What exactly is an "MJO" if you don't mind me asking.

Here's a page I wrote about 10 years ago on the MJO. It explains it in layman's terms, mostly:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/mjo/

[redneckweather]

The calm before the storm.

[srainhoutx]

The calm before the storm.

Keep an eye on the end of September...

[TexasBreeze]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH AND OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND AFRICA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS DISORGANIZED AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$ FORECASTER STEWART

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE WEST
COAST OF AFRICA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING ONLY LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
UNLIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

3. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z operational GFS suggests some late September/early October mischief in the Western Caribbean. That model is also hinting a rather strong EPAC Hurricane (currently 96E) impacting the Baja. Just perhaps some tropical moisture from the EPAC can be tapped increasing our rainfall chances across Texas.

[srainhoutx]

The euro continues to advertise activty in the Western Caribbean toward the end of September. My hunch is activity will increase the first couple of weeks in October in the Western Basin and eyes will turn to the EPAC as well with a chance or two of tropical moisture streaming across Texas. We will see.

[Ptarmigan]

The euro continues to advertise activty in the Western Caribbean toward the end of September. My hunch is activity will increase the first couple of weeks in October in the Western Basin and eyes will turn to the EPAC as well with a chance or two of tropical moisture streaming across Texas. We will see.

Should be interesting. Texas is not totally immune in October.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro continues to advertise lowering pressures across the Western Basin in the longer range. Signals are becoming rather strong that a favorable MJO will reappear as we head toward the first half of October...