Wx Infinity Forums

Today's 12Z version of the GFS suggests a large Hurricane entering the Gulf SW of Florida...moving NE...

srainhoutx wrote:

Today's 12Z version of the GFS suggests a large Hurricane entering the Gulf SW of Florida...moving NE...

Very interesting since it's been so consistent in development. I sure hope I can get to the bottom of Josh's Kestrel problem before another chase comes up.

What is becoming rather clear is that we will see the genesis of a large storm in the NW Caribbean in the next 6-10 days. Where this cyclone ends up is pure speculation at this point. The worrisome point is that area of the NW Caribbean has a history of spawning some Hurricane names that will not soon be forgotten. We will see what the other guidance offers today.

Met Tech wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:

Today's 12Z version of the GFS suggests a large Hurricane entering the Gulf SW of Florida...moving NE...

Very interesting since it's been so consistent in development. I sure hope I can get to the bottom of Josh's Kestrel problem before another chase comes up.

I've been thinking about that as well, Cory. Contruction of some sort of 'shield' without affecting the readings and performance of the Kestrel is certainly a challenge.

12Z Canadian has settled down and now shows development in the SW Caribbean @ 144 hours..

My model is doing similar to what the CMC was doing before changing its mind today. This is 12Z Sep 25th and it's paralleling Cuba at the time.

srainhoutx wrote:12Z Canadian has settled down and now shows development in the SW Caribbean @ 144 hours..

Is there anything preventing this storm from heading our way on the upper TX coast?

Met Tech wrote:My model is doing similar to what the CMC was doing before changing its mind today. This is 12Z Sep 25th and it's paralleling Cuba at the time.
http://www.sanfordlabs.com/WRF/caribbean1.png

What would that mean for the track in the GOM?

sambucol wrote:

What would that mean for the track in the GOM?

I only ran it out to 144 hours, but at the time it was on a track straight for the Gulf. I'm rerunning it out to 180 now just out of curiosity.

Met Tech wrote:

sambucol wrote:

What would that mean for the track in the GOM?

I only ran it out to 144 hours, but at the time it was on a track straight for the Gulf. I'm rerunning it out to 180 now just out of curiosity.

Ok. I'm curious if Texas is possibly at target.

Bring on cooler weather. Hopefully our weather pattern will follow history rather than current model forecasts and we will get our first cold front in time to drive tropical activity away from our area.

Well the Euro has a very large storm in the Gulf @ hour 240...low resolution from the ECMWF site...

sambucol wrote:

Ok. I'm curious if Texas is possibly at target.

Looks like it's doing the same as GFS; in this last frame at 180 hours (27/00Z) it just starts headed WNW as if it's going to make a northwest/north turn afterward. Central pressure 969 mb, by the way--a bit hard to read on that graphic.

Here are the resolutions of the Euro from Allan Huffman's site at 850mb and 500mb...

Interesting that the KWRF is also suggesting a powerful system. Worth watching and thanks Met Tech for those graphics. Looks like an interesting week as the NHC has now mentioned PGI46L or the general location in the latest Tropical Weather Discussion as a surface trough...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 13N48W
4N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 48W-54W.

any guesses as to how Upper TX coast figures into this? I know it's early.

I think we aren't out of the woods on the upper TX coast. But I could be wrong.

Still very early and we know things change quickly. To use a phrase that has been tossed around before, Tampico to Bermuda would be in the 'cone' today IMO.

Yeah, I'm kinda sensing that myself. Well, tis the season.

Thanks guys!