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Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2010 12:37 pm
by Andrew

It is also sending it NW so SE texas would get hit pretty hard. We are getting pretty good consensus that this will be a gulf threat but beyond that we can not really tell.

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2010 12:39 pm
by Paul
66hrs it picnhes off and develops bombing out as it appraoches the TX coast...this is 4 runs in a row now for the CMC.....144hr is really really short range....mid next week..... :shock:

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2010 12:43 pm
by Met Tech
srainhoutx wrote:
12Z Canadian is at it again...
Wow...this could be a really interesting few days coming up.

Edit: if Canadian isn't back on the crackpipe again, that is. ;)

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2010 12:48 pm
by Paul
I am not liking these runs at all....CMC has been better than the EURO at 72hr verifying....of course we need something to develop first but its so close time wise.....if I see this run again tonight and tomorrow and something looks to be stirring.....its prep time...

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2010 12:51 pm
by Paul
Met Tech wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:
12Z Canadian is at it again...
Wow...this could be a really interesting few days coming up.

Edit: if Canadian isn't back on the crackpipe again, that is. ;)

CMC has been tweaked from last year when it was spinning up everything and its brother.....I am not taken it for granted this year...

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2010 12:51 pm
by Andrew
Met Tech wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:
12Z Canadian is at it again...
Wow...this could be a really interesting few days coming up.

Edit: if Canadian isn't back on the crackpipe again, that is. ;)

If this happens it will be a little more than interesting. The GFS is showing the same thing at a farther time frame. A dominating ridge is indicated by both models. A typical La Nina solution for a already crazy year.

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2010 12:52 pm
by Andrew
Met Tech wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:
12Z Canadian is at it again...
Wow...this could be a really interesting few days coming up.

Edit: if Canadian isn't back on the crackpipe again, that is. ;)

CMC has been tweaked from last year when it was spinning up everything and its brother.....I am not taken it for granted this year...[/quote]


Wxman said they were supposed to do tweaks at the end of September but I don't know if they have done them yet.

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2010 12:57 pm
by srainhoutx
2 PM TWO mentions the disturbance in the Western Gulf today...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
MOVE INLAND BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2010 12:57 pm
by Met Tech
Paul wrote:
CMC has been tweaked from last year when it was spinning up everything and its brother.....I am not taken it for granted this year...
Oh, I agree; didn't mean to sound like I was bashing it. It's seemed to have some track forecast issues this year but I'd say overall it's much improved over its old self. I was mainly referring to the Colin fiasco where my model was backing the CMC's Florida play and we got burned big time. ;)

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2010 12:58 pm
by Paul
Edit: if Canadian isn't back on the crackpipe again, that is. ;)[/quote]


CMC has been tweaked from last year when it was spinning up everything and its brother.....I am not taken it for granted this year...[/quote]


Wxman said they were supposed to do tweaks at the end of September but I don't know if they have done them yet.[/quote]



yeah he said that but what from what I heard at the beginning of this year it had been tweaked before the season.....whatever the case....this is bombing out as its closing in on the coast....worst case scenario,,,

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2010 1:01 pm
by Andrew
Paul wrote:Edit: if Canadian isn't back on the crackpipe again, that is. ;)

CMC has been tweaked from last year when it was spinning up everything and its brother.....I am not taken it for granted this year...[/quote]


Wxman said they were supposed to do tweaks at the end of September but I don't know if they have done them yet.[/quote]



yeah he said that but what from what I heard at the beginning of this year it had been tweaked before the season.....whatever the case....this is bombing out as its closing in on the coast....worst case scenario,,,[/quote]


Like you said though if these runs continue for another day basic preps will have to start. I am sure emergency officials are already getting prepared. ;)

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2010 1:24 pm
by djjordan
I've been watching these runs for the past couple of days as well ...... looking mighty interesting to see how this plays out this coming week. Also, keeping an eye out on the western GOM this afternoon .... while not likely to develop .... it is interesting to watch as this blob evolves.

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2010 1:59 pm
by srainhoutx
Yikes...

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2010 2:00 pm
by sambucol
Srainhoutx, what do those charts mean in layman's terms?

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2010 2:04 pm
by srainhoutx
Those are the GFS interpretation of the mjo pulse heading E into the Western Atlantic Basin. That can be seen by the green colors.

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2010 3:09 pm
by srainhoutx
Euro 12Z 500mb 240 hour...

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2010 3:11 pm
by sambucol
srainhoutx wrote:Euro 12Z 500mb 240 hour...
Is this a different system than the CMC one?

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2010 3:35 pm
by srainhoutx
There is some debate over what feature or features will develop. I like to call them vorts or vortexes, if that is a word. Virtually all models are suggesting a developing cyclone or cyclogenesis in the Western Caribbean now. The issue is does this vort come from a monsoonal trough draped across South/Central America, or is it the vort associated with PGI46L that the PREDICT team is tracking just W of the Windwards. Regardless, conditions are rapidly improving for storm development in the Western Atlantic Basin and our season locally is not over just yet IMO.

HPC re CMC...

WE ARE STILL IGNORING THE 12Z/18 CANADIAN AS THAT MODEL CONTINUES
TO BE AN OUTLIER IN FORECASTING A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP IN
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO THU...MAKING LANDFALL IN S TX NEXT WEEKEND.



Corpus Christi...

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WED AS TROPICAL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED INTO SOUTH
TEXAS...AROUND A MID/UPR LVL RIDGE SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE SERN
STATES. A WEAK UPPER LVL SHEAR AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL BEND
MON-TUE WHILE A SFC TROUGH MOVES INLAND ENHANCING THE UPWARD VERT
MOTION TAPPING PWS 2.25". THUS EXPECT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL THRU
TUE. DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS INTO WED WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT...HOWEVER
SELY SFC WINDS INCREASE AS TROUGH DVLPS IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. THUS
EXPECT PCPN TO BE MORE SCATTERED. WILL TAPER POPS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MID/UPR LVL RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY BACK OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AD PWS DROP BELOW 2". ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN HINT ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE COULD MOVE INTO WRN GULF NEXT WEEKEND AND THIS WAS BRIEFLY
DISCUSSED DURING THE MIDDAY NHC CONFERENCE CALL. CANADIAN APPEARS
TOO FAST AND AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A TROPICAL SYSTEM WHILE THE
ECM/GFS KEEP AN OPEN WAVE.
WILL CARRY ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ATTM DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN FCST. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH MID WEEK
DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN IN THE AREA...INCREASING TO SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2010 5:34 pm
by cisa
well, the season started slow but it has certainly got it's act together of late.

Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Posted: Sat Sep 18, 2010 6:07 pm
by Ptarmigan
Regardless of what the computer models say, something is going to develop in the Gulf and Caribbean, which typically happens at this time.