Remnants of Matthew Inland Over Southern Mexico

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biggerbyte
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Watch the area down between CC and BRN. If this does not move onshore quickly....
Lookout Gulf and Caribbean residents. This train is rolling.
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Ptarmigan
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biggerbyte wrote:Watch the area down between CC and BRN. If this does not move onshore quickly....
Lookout Gulf and Caribbean residents. This train is rolling.
Agreed! We need cans of RAID to suppress any tropical cyclone development. These tropical waves are like cockroaches. :lol: :twisted:
biggerbyte
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There is rotation down in the area I mentioned earlier. I can't yet locate the center of that rotation. If I
had to guess based on radar, it looks to be just offshore.
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srainhoutx
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PGI46L this morning E of the Windwards...

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srainhoutx
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PREDICT pouch synopsis

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date (UTC): 2010/09/19 12:35
Author: Boothe
Submitted at (UTC): 2010/09/19 12:38
Revised at(UTC): 2010/09/19 13:39
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pouch Name: PGI46L Official Name: Initial Center Point: 13N 48W
Notes:

Time with the initial uncertainty has certainly decreased.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ECMWF: Phase Speed: -8.2 Determination: v850 only Level tracked: 700 hPa

Track: 120h, but uncertain at 0-24, 60 and 108 hours.
I don't usually do this, but I used the v850 Hovmoller to
determine a phase speed even though I knew that my intention was
to track the pouch at 700 hPa. I did that because the Hovmoller
v signal was much more distinct at 850 hPa than at 700 hPa.
WARNING!!!! With that being said ... the 850-hPa pouch is much
more distinct and probably should have been tracked. Please see
the first 48 hours of the OW loop. The 850-hPa pouch center is
much farther east than the indicated 700-hPa position. That
850-hPa position is probably more accurate.
GFS: Phase Speed: -7.6 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa


Track: 120h, and uncertain only at the analysis time.
Pouch moves westward into the Caribbean.
UKMET: Phase Speed: -8.8 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa


Track: No pouch at any time.
Phase speed may be too fast. However, there is very little OW
in UKMET.
NOGAPS: Phase Speed: -7.3 Determination: Moisture & v average Level tracked: 700 hPa

Track: 120h, and uncertain only at the analysis time.
Pouch moves westward into the Caribbean.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Other potential systems:
Investigated the southwestern Caribbean for a third day in a
row, but the models have backed way off the development of a
northward-moving pouch developing near Panama. GFS and UKMET
indicate only a weak pouch that remains quasi-stationary near
Panama. This will probably be the last day of watching this
potential feature. (See "Other Potential System" on the 2010
home page.)

Models show a pouch approaching the west African coast around
120 hours, but that pouch is still east of 10E at analysis time.
http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/pre ... port/index
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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singlemom
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Hey Wise Ones

I was checking out sat pics this morning and comparing it to NHC's "areas of interest" pic. Beyond the obvious answer (and after reading your PREDICT Pouch info) why isn't that area even mentioned on NHC's current activity pic?
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srainhoutx
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Good morning singlemom. That's a good question! Right now there is still some question on when and where this expected disturbance will form. Also, the NHC will likely wait until a bit more development occurs before beginning the ramp up of information they provide on their Graphics page. There is some 'limited' mention in the NHC Tropical Weather Discussion section. With all the research projects this Tropical Season, we are seeing a lot of information that has not been made public in past years that is now available for anyone to read and have access to. Over night, virtually all the models again developed a storm in the Western Caribbean and moved it NW. With the consensus building each day, the attention that the NHC will give to any future disturbance will likely begin to increase. Long answer, but hopefully it helps. Others may want to add or correct as needed. ;)
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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singlemom
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Nay, Nay....long post away (and thanks!). Soooo...it is still forming and moving West. Like you said, with all the information available out there, it does get a litle confusing sometimes. Thanks again for the explaination. :D
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wxman57
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srain,

PGI46L isn't that feature in the eastern Caribbean, it's the tropical wave along 50W about 700-800 miles east of the Caribbean. The feature in the eastern Caribbean is an upper level trof extending south from Igor. As I've been saying, as development shifts away from the east Atlantic, we have to watch to the Gulf and Caribbean for development this season. I think that area will be coming alive in recent weeks, meaning threats to the Caribbean islands and the northern Gulf coast (as opposed to south Mexico). Threats to FL and the southeast coast as well. I do expect development in the Caribbean over the next 5-10 days. Nothing specific to focus on yet (west of the wave along 50W). I will be keeping an eye on the storms in the eastern Caribbean to see if they persist another 24 hrs or so. Might be development potential there.
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srainhoutx
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wxman57 wrote:srain,

PGI46L isn't that feature in the eastern Caribbean, it's the tropical wave along 50W about 700-800 miles east of the Caribbean. The feature in the eastern Caribbean is an upper level trof extending south from Igor. As I've been saying, as development shifts away from the east Atlantic, we have to watch to the Gulf and Caribbean for development this season. I think that area will be coming alive in recent weeks, meaning threats to the Caribbean islands and the northern Gulf coast (as opposed to south Mexico). Threats to FL and the southeast coast as well. I do expect development in the Caribbean over the next 5-10 days. Nothing specific to focus on yet (west of the wave along 50W). I will be keeping an eye on the storms in the eastern Caribbean to see if they persist another 24 hrs or so. Might be development potential there.
I corrected my post from W to E of the Windwards. Thanks for the update wxman57. Your help and corrections are always welcomed. Keep us informed as you can!
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srainhoutx
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Today's 12Z version of the GFS suggests a large Hurricane entering the Gulf SW of Florida...moving NE...
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srainhoutx wrote:
Today's 12Z version of the GFS suggests a large Hurricane entering the Gulf SW of Florida...moving NE...
Very interesting since it's been so consistent in development. I sure hope I can get to the bottom of Josh's Kestrel problem before another chase comes up.
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srainhoutx
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What is becoming rather clear is that we will see the genesis of a large storm in the NW Caribbean in the next 6-10 days. Where this cyclone ends up is pure speculation at this point. The worrisome point is that area of the NW Caribbean has a history of spawning some Hurricane names that will not soon be forgotten. We will see what the other guidance offers today.
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srainhoutx
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Met Tech wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:
Today's 12Z version of the GFS suggests a large Hurricane entering the Gulf SW of Florida...moving NE...
Very interesting since it's been so consistent in development. I sure hope I can get to the bottom of Josh's Kestrel problem before another chase comes up.
I've been thinking about that as well, Cory. Contruction of some sort of 'shield' without affecting the readings and performance of the Kestrel is certainly a challenge.
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srainhoutx
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12Z Canadian has settled down and now shows development in the SW Caribbean @ 144 hours..
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My model is doing similar to what the CMC was doing before changing its mind today. This is 12Z Sep 25th and it's paralleling Cuba at the time.

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sambucol
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srainhoutx wrote:12Z Canadian has settled down and now shows development in the SW Caribbean @ 144 hours..
Is there anything preventing this storm from heading our way on the upper TX coast?
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sambucol
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Met Tech wrote:My model is doing similar to what the CMC was doing before changing its mind today. This is 12Z Sep 25th and it's paralleling Cuba at the time.
http://www.sanfordlabs.com/WRF/caribbean1.png
What would that mean for the track in the GOM?
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sambucol wrote:
What would that mean for the track in the GOM?
I only ran it out to 144 hours, but at the time it was on a track straight for the Gulf. I'm rerunning it out to 180 now just out of curiosity.
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sambucol
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Met Tech wrote:
sambucol wrote:
What would that mean for the track in the GOM?
I only ran it out to 144 hours, but at the time it was on a track straight for the Gulf. I'm rerunning it out to 180 now just out of curiosity.
Ok. I'm curious if Texas is possibly at target.
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