Remnants of Matthew Inland Over Southern Mexico

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wxman57
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For now, we don't know where anything is going until we know if something develops and when and where it develops. I do think that it's becoming somewhat evident that the Caribbean and Gulf will become active over the coming week. If I was a betting meteorologist, I'd put some money down on western Florida (peninsula or panhandle) for now. Secondarily, SE LA to MS/AL.
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From what I have noticed, a good number of computer models are predicting a strong hurricane in the next 2 weeks. Like I said before, the Caribbean and Gulf is where tropical activity will likely happen. If it had a name, it would either be Matthew, Nicole, or Otto. Invest 94L is getting better organized, which would make it Lisa.
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wxman57 wrote:For now, we don't know where anything is going until we know if something develops and when and where it develops. I do think that it's becoming somewhat evident that the Caribbean and Gulf will become active over the coming week. If I was a betting meteorologist, I'd put some money down on western Florida (peninsula or panhandle) for now. Secondarily, SE LA to MS/AL.

Why would you say more east central gulf coast too anywhere else?
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wxman57
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Andrew wrote:
wxman57 wrote:For now, we don't know where anything is going until we know if something develops and when and where it develops. I do think that it's becoming somewhat evident that the Caribbean and Gulf will become active over the coming week. If I was a betting meteorologist, I'd put some money down on western Florida (peninsula or panhandle) for now. Secondarily, SE LA to MS/AL.

Why would you say more east central gulf coast too anywhere else?
Good chance of a ridge over Texas and trof down the East U.S. states by then.
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wxman57 wrote:
Andrew wrote:
wxman57 wrote:For now, we don't know where anything is going until we know if something develops and when and where it develops. I do think that it's becoming somewhat evident that the Caribbean and Gulf will become active over the coming week. If I was a betting meteorologist, I'd put some money down on western Florida (peninsula or panhandle) for now. Secondarily, SE LA to MS/AL.

Why would you say more east central gulf coast too anywhere else?
Good chance of a ridge over Texas and trof down the East U.S. states by then.

Alright thank you. I hope you're right.
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I honestly think as we get closer and closer to October we will be in the clear. Some of these models did have HGX as the bulleyes several runs last week but that's all changed.

But then again - until we get a system that actually develops.....how do we know where its ultimately going.

I mean the models have been seeing this system for over 7 days and its always 10+ days out. Tells me develop isn't going to be rapid.

As always...keep an eye to the sky and stay prepared.
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The models continue to develop a storm in the NW Caribbean later this week. The 00Z Euro has come in stronger with a Gulf storm as well...
09202010 00Z EC Hour 192 Wind3285032and32mslp_North32America_192.gif
09202010 00Z EC Hour 216 Wind3285032and32mslp_North32America_216.gif
09202010 00Z EC Hour 240 Wind3285032and32mslp_North32America_240.gif
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srainhoutx
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PGI46L is looking a bit better convection wise this morning...
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Here is the PREDICT Team morning report on PGI46L...
PREDICT pouch synopsis

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date (UTC): 2010/09/20 12:35
Author: Boothe
Submitted at (UTC): 2010/09/20 12:50
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pouch Name: PGI46L Official Name: Initial Center Point: 13N 56W
Notes:




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ECMWF: Phase Speed: Determination: Level tracked:


GFS: Phase Speed: -7.2 Determination: v average Level tracked: 850 hPa


Track: 120h
Phase speed determined after initial "test" track was also -7.2
m/s.
GFS has the most consistent pouch and track.
UKMET: Phase Speed: -7.2 Determination: v850 only Level tracked: 850 hPa


Track: 96h, but that's only because the data stopped at 96
hours. (Note that the track plotted at the top of the time
series only goes to 84 hours, but the track continues to 96
hours in the 6-panel comoving vs. earth-relative comparisons.
The missing data played havoc with our code!)
A pouch is discernible throughout the 96 hours. The first two
days are erratic in terms of speed, but the track becomes more
stable after 48 hours. (After watching closely this year, this
isn't the only storm or model that has troubles creating a
smooth track near the islands. This erratic east-west jumping
as a pouch tries to cross the islands in the forecast fields
seems common ... but I realize that this is a small sample!)
NOGAPS: Phase Speed: -7.7 Determination: Moisture & v average Level tracked: 850 hPa

Track: 120h, but uncertain at 24, 60, and 84 hours.
Used RH and v850 to determine Cp.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Other potential systems:
Convection south of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico appears to not
have a wave associated with it.
Image
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z GFS suggests a very complex situation that may involve PGI46L and a low that starts from a monsoonal trough near South/Central America...hour 204...
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Hour 324...
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Hour 384...Florida bound...
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srainhoutx
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What is concerning is seeing some agreement today regarding the size of this potential system. The GFS has joined the Euro suggesting a very large storm.
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z Euro has come in similar to the GFS with a track NE from the Western Caribbean toward the Florida Straits. Timing, well that is a different story. The Euro moves the system near the FL Straits @ hour 192 where the GFS takes 324 hours to move it near Tampa. Hmmm...
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so are the chances of it coming west instead of east pretty slim at this point or is it still totally up in the air?
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It all depends on when and where this forms and what is going on across the CONUS at that time. My guess is that the models are 'sniffing' a big pattern change across the Western Atlantic Basin in regards to a favorable MJO pulse (the strongest this season) and a robust Kelvin Wave entering the Caribbean Sea. Should we get a cold front this weekend into SE TX, then I would think our chances of having any Tropical Trouble would decrease. But as I always say, we will see. ;)
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HPC thoughts: A lot of uncertainty from what I am reading...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
158 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2010

VALID 12Z THU SEP 23 2010 - 12Z MON SEP 27 2010

CLOSED LOWS LIE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF ALASKA TO THE EAST AND
WEST OF 140W... RESPECTIVELY. THIS COUPLED WITH BUILDING RIDGING
IN WESTERN NORTH AMERICA /WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WARM/ WILL FORCE DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US BY THIS
WEEKEND. RECENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS HAVE VARIED IN THE STRENGTH
OF SAID TROUGHING FROM A CLOSED LOW SEPARATING FROM THE FLOW AND
DROPPING TO NEW MEXICO /ECMWF RUNS FROM 19 SEPT/ TO A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC /GFS/. THESE DIFFERENCES OCCUR
DOWNSTREAM OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF WHAT IS NOW WESTERN
PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W...WHICH BOTH THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z
ECMWF KEEP AS A STRONG SYSTEM WHILE THE 06Z GFS WAS QUITE WEAK
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHERE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS
EXPECTED TO LIE LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH LEADS TO PRONOUNCED
DIFFERENCES OVER THE LOWER 48 UNITED STATES. THE PRESENCE OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION UPSTREAM AND
DISAGREEMENT WITHIN THE GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF POOR
CONTINUITY...LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES LATE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD.


THE 00Z/20 ECMWF HAS STUCK WITH CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW NEAR
KANSAS CITY BY SUN/D6 WHILE THE 00Z GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE LIKE THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. EVEN HERE... THE 00Z
GEFS/NAEFS ARE FASTER THAN THE 00Z CANADIAN ENS MEAN AND 12Z ECMWF
ENS MEAN. THE ECMWF HAS SHOWN LARGE CONTINUITY CHANGES WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS...LOWERING OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THIS PIECE OF GUIDANCE. TELECONNECTIONS WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM RIDGING IN WESTERN CANADA FAVOR ENERGY MOVING NEAR THE
WESTERN US/CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN
THE PERIOD...NOT A CLOSED LOW IN THE MIDWEST.
FOLLOWED ALONG THE
LINE OF HPC CONTINUITY BY USING A 00Z ECMWF/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND EARLY ON AS AN INITIAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A
00Z CANADIAN/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND FOR SUNDAY AND
NEXT MONDAY WHICH KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL US AS THE WESTERLIES ARE FORCED THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
CANADA.

ENOUGH TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE EAST TO ALLOW FOR
A PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE EAST INTO MEXICO....THOUGH
THERE IS A QUESTION MARK CONCERNING WHERE ANY POSSIBLE CLOSED
CYCLONES WOULD FORM WITHIN THE EASTERN TROUGH WHICH MAKES PINNING
DOWN RAINFALL THIS FAR OUT HIGHLY UNCERTAIN NEAR AND EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COORDINATION
WITH TPC LED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE PROGRESSION IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND WENT WITH THEIR IDEAS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

ROTH/FRACASSO
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srainhoutx
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HGX thoughts:

BOTH THE ECM/GFS ARE TRYING TO SPIN SOMETHING UP IN THE CARIBBEAN
AND EVENTUALLY MOVE IT NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF OR SOUTHEAST OF
FLORIDA BETWEEN THE 26TH AND 28TH. STILL WAY TO EARLY FOR ANY
CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING EVEN DEVELOPING AND FOR THAT MATTER THAT
TRACK.
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Lake Charles AFD



.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. OVERALL...FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE WRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP A SMALL
CHANCE FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST ACRS THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...KEPT LOW END CHC POPS IN THE FCST
SATURDAY WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A LITTLE
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...LEANED
TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST AS
THE ECMWF IS STILL AGGRESSIVE ON CUTTING OFF THE 5H LOW OVER THE
MID MS/OHIO VALLEYS.
JMS
SR. ENSC.
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If we get the cold front through here, will that mean we are not likely for any tropical development to head our way?
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