Remnants of Matthew Inland Over Southern Mexico

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Andrew
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Paul wrote:Edit: if Canadian isn't back on the crackpipe again, that is. ;)

CMC has been tweaked from last year when it was spinning up everything and its brother.....I am not taken it for granted this year...[/quote]


Wxman said they were supposed to do tweaks at the end of September but I don't know if they have done them yet.[/quote]



yeah he said that but what from what I heard at the beginning of this year it had been tweaked before the season.....whatever the case....this is bombing out as its closing in on the coast....worst case scenario,,,[/quote]


Like you said though if these runs continue for another day basic preps will have to start. I am sure emergency officials are already getting prepared. ;)
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I've been watching these runs for the past couple of days as well ...... looking mighty interesting to see how this plays out this coming week. Also, keeping an eye out on the western GOM this afternoon .... while not likely to develop .... it is interesting to watch as this blob evolves.
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srainhoutx
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Yikes...
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sambucol
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Srainhoutx, what do those charts mean in layman's terms?
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srainhoutx
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Those are the GFS interpretation of the mjo pulse heading E into the Western Atlantic Basin. That can be seen by the green colors.
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srainhoutx
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Euro 12Z 500mb 240 hour...
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sambucol
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srainhoutx wrote:Euro 12Z 500mb 240 hour...
Is this a different system than the CMC one?
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srainhoutx
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There is some debate over what feature or features will develop. I like to call them vorts or vortexes, if that is a word. Virtually all models are suggesting a developing cyclone or cyclogenesis in the Western Caribbean now. The issue is does this vort come from a monsoonal trough draped across South/Central America, or is it the vort associated with PGI46L that the PREDICT team is tracking just W of the Windwards. Regardless, conditions are rapidly improving for storm development in the Western Atlantic Basin and our season locally is not over just yet IMO.

HPC re CMC...

WE ARE STILL IGNORING THE 12Z/18 CANADIAN AS THAT MODEL CONTINUES
TO BE AN OUTLIER IN FORECASTING A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP IN
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO THU...MAKING LANDFALL IN S TX NEXT WEEKEND.



Corpus Christi...

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH WED AS TROPICAL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED INTO SOUTH
TEXAS...AROUND A MID/UPR LVL RIDGE SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE SERN
STATES. A WEAK UPPER LVL SHEAR AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL BEND
MON-TUE WHILE A SFC TROUGH MOVES INLAND ENHANCING THE UPWARD VERT
MOTION TAPPING PWS 2.25". THUS EXPECT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL THRU
TUE. DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS INTO WED WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT...HOWEVER
SELY SFC WINDS INCREASE AS TROUGH DVLPS IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. THUS
EXPECT PCPN TO BE MORE SCATTERED. WILL TAPER POPS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MID/UPR LVL RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY BACK OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AD PWS DROP BELOW 2". ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN HINT ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE COULD MOVE INTO WRN GULF NEXT WEEKEND AND THIS WAS BRIEFLY
DISCUSSED DURING THE MIDDAY NHC CONFERENCE CALL. CANADIAN APPEARS
TOO FAST AND AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A TROPICAL SYSTEM WHILE THE
ECM/GFS KEEP AN OPEN WAVE.
WILL CARRY ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS ATTM DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN FCST. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH MID WEEK
DUE TO CLOUDS/RAIN IN THE AREA...INCREASING TO SLIGHTLY ABV CLIMO
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
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well, the season started slow but it has certainly got it's act together of late.
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Ptarmigan
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Regardless of what the computer models say, something is going to develop in the Gulf and Caribbean, which typically happens at this time.
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Watch the area down between CC and BRN. If this does not move onshore quickly....
Lookout Gulf and Caribbean residents. This train is rolling.
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Ptarmigan
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biggerbyte wrote:Watch the area down between CC and BRN. If this does not move onshore quickly....
Lookout Gulf and Caribbean residents. This train is rolling.
Agreed! We need cans of RAID to suppress any tropical cyclone development. These tropical waves are like cockroaches. :lol: :twisted:
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There is rotation down in the area I mentioned earlier. I can't yet locate the center of that rotation. If I
had to guess based on radar, it looks to be just offshore.
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srainhoutx
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PGI46L this morning E of the Windwards...

Image
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srainhoutx
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PREDICT pouch synopsis

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date (UTC): 2010/09/19 12:35
Author: Boothe
Submitted at (UTC): 2010/09/19 12:38
Revised at(UTC): 2010/09/19 13:39
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pouch Name: PGI46L Official Name: Initial Center Point: 13N 48W
Notes:

Time with the initial uncertainty has certainly decreased.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ECMWF: Phase Speed: -8.2 Determination: v850 only Level tracked: 700 hPa

Track: 120h, but uncertain at 0-24, 60 and 108 hours.
I don't usually do this, but I used the v850 Hovmoller to
determine a phase speed even though I knew that my intention was
to track the pouch at 700 hPa. I did that because the Hovmoller
v signal was much more distinct at 850 hPa than at 700 hPa.
WARNING!!!! With that being said ... the 850-hPa pouch is much
more distinct and probably should have been tracked. Please see
the first 48 hours of the OW loop. The 850-hPa pouch center is
much farther east than the indicated 700-hPa position. That
850-hPa position is probably more accurate.
GFS: Phase Speed: -7.6 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa


Track: 120h, and uncertain only at the analysis time.
Pouch moves westward into the Caribbean.
UKMET: Phase Speed: -8.8 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa


Track: No pouch at any time.
Phase speed may be too fast. However, there is very little OW
in UKMET.
NOGAPS: Phase Speed: -7.3 Determination: Moisture & v average Level tracked: 700 hPa

Track: 120h, and uncertain only at the analysis time.
Pouch moves westward into the Caribbean.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Other potential systems:
Investigated the southwestern Caribbean for a third day in a
row, but the models have backed way off the development of a
northward-moving pouch developing near Panama. GFS and UKMET
indicate only a weak pouch that remains quasi-stationary near
Panama. This will probably be the last day of watching this
potential feature. (See "Other Potential System" on the 2010
home page.)

Models show a pouch approaching the west African coast around
120 hours, but that pouch is still east of 10E at analysis time.
http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/pre ... port/index
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singlemom
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Hey Wise Ones

I was checking out sat pics this morning and comparing it to NHC's "areas of interest" pic. Beyond the obvious answer (and after reading your PREDICT Pouch info) why isn't that area even mentioned on NHC's current activity pic?
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srainhoutx
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Good morning singlemom. That's a good question! Right now there is still some question on when and where this expected disturbance will form. Also, the NHC will likely wait until a bit more development occurs before beginning the ramp up of information they provide on their Graphics page. There is some 'limited' mention in the NHC Tropical Weather Discussion section. With all the research projects this Tropical Season, we are seeing a lot of information that has not been made public in past years that is now available for anyone to read and have access to. Over night, virtually all the models again developed a storm in the Western Caribbean and moved it NW. With the consensus building each day, the attention that the NHC will give to any future disturbance will likely begin to increase. Long answer, but hopefully it helps. Others may want to add or correct as needed. ;)
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singlemom
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Nay, Nay....long post away (and thanks!). Soooo...it is still forming and moving West. Like you said, with all the information available out there, it does get a litle confusing sometimes. Thanks again for the explaination. :D
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wxman57
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srain,

PGI46L isn't that feature in the eastern Caribbean, it's the tropical wave along 50W about 700-800 miles east of the Caribbean. The feature in the eastern Caribbean is an upper level trof extending south from Igor. As I've been saying, as development shifts away from the east Atlantic, we have to watch to the Gulf and Caribbean for development this season. I think that area will be coming alive in recent weeks, meaning threats to the Caribbean islands and the northern Gulf coast (as opposed to south Mexico). Threats to FL and the southeast coast as well. I do expect development in the Caribbean over the next 5-10 days. Nothing specific to focus on yet (west of the wave along 50W). I will be keeping an eye on the storms in the eastern Caribbean to see if they persist another 24 hrs or so. Might be development potential there.
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srainhoutx
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wxman57 wrote:srain,

PGI46L isn't that feature in the eastern Caribbean, it's the tropical wave along 50W about 700-800 miles east of the Caribbean. The feature in the eastern Caribbean is an upper level trof extending south from Igor. As I've been saying, as development shifts away from the east Atlantic, we have to watch to the Gulf and Caribbean for development this season. I think that area will be coming alive in recent weeks, meaning threats to the Caribbean islands and the northern Gulf coast (as opposed to south Mexico). Threats to FL and the southeast coast as well. I do expect development in the Caribbean over the next 5-10 days. Nothing specific to focus on yet (west of the wave along 50W). I will be keeping an eye on the storms in the eastern Caribbean to see if they persist another 24 hrs or so. Might be development potential there.
I corrected my post from W to E of the Windwards. Thanks for the update wxman57. Your help and corrections are always welcomed. Keep us informed as you can!
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