Wx Infinity Forums

Global models have been rather consistent in having some type of development next week in the Caribbean, possibly moving toward the Gulf. I don't know if Josh and Strat are up for it so soon, but I'm already hoping this is another chase opportunity--talk about a reality show!

From the PREDICT Team...

The models continue to hint at a monsoonal development in
eastern Eastpac that moves northward over Mexico into the
western Caribbean ... with different results between the models.
While most models stall it in the southwestern Caribbean,
NOGAPS moves it northward along the east coast of Nicaragua.

6z GFS Here we go:




I can already see the lack of sleep for the next couple of weeks.

Looking from my phone it's hard to tell, but is there something spinning up in the gulf from the remnants of Karl?

I don't need anything next week with the Rush concert coming up at the Woodlands.

yea there is a blob in the western gulf left over from karl. Is it even possible for another tropical system to form the remnants of a system that moves inland like karl?

Snowman wrote:yea there is a blob in the western gulf left over from karl. Is it even possible for another tropical system to form the remnants of a system that moves inland like karl?

There is a an area of broad lower pressures now across the the Gulf and Western Caribbean. Also a trough axis hanging N to S in the Western Gulf. Mid September and boundaries can bring surprises. Let's see if something begins to spin up off the Mexican Coast as the day wears on. It may well help our rain chances locally.

Snowman wrote:yea there is a blob in the western gulf left over from karl. Is it even possible for another tropical system to form the remnants of a system that moves inland like karl?

No model support along with the fact that these storms are most likely heat driven and will die down tonight means that there isn't really a chance of anything forming. Now if it stays together overnight then maybe we will have something.

GFS has trouble with it this run. ALMOST hits Mexico as a strong storm then dissipates it and sends it north:

12Z Canadian is at it again...

12z CMC
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

sambucol wrote:12z CMC
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

It is also sending it NW so SE texas would get hit pretty hard. We are getting pretty good consensus that this will be a gulf threat but beyond that we can not really tell.

66hrs it picnhes off and develops bombing out as it appraoches the TX coast...this is 4 runs in a row now for the CMC.....144hr is really really short range....mid next week.....

srainhoutx wrote:

12Z Canadian is at it again...

Wow...this could be a really interesting few days coming up.

Edit: if Canadian isn't back on the crackpipe again, that is.

I am not liking these runs at all....CMC has been better than the EURO at 72hr verifying....of course we need something to develop first but its so close time wise.....if I see this run again tonight and tomorrow and something looks to be stirring.....its prep time...

Met Tech wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:

12Z Canadian is at it again...

Wow...this could be a really interesting few days coming up.

Edit: if Canadian isn't back on the crackpipe again, that is.

CMC has been tweaked from last year when it was spinning up everything and its brother.....I am not taken it for granted this year...

Met Tech wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:

12Z Canadian is at it again...

Wow...this could be a really interesting few days coming up.

Edit: if Canadian isn't back on the crackpipe again, that is.

If this happens it will be a little more than interesting. The GFS is showing the same thing at a farther time frame. A dominating ridge is indicated by both models. A typical La Nina solution for a already crazy year.

Met Tech wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:

12Z Canadian is at it again...

Wow...this could be a really interesting few days coming up.

Edit: if Canadian isn't back on the crackpipe again, that is.

CMC has been tweaked from last year when it was spinning up everything and its brother.....I am not taken it for granted this year...[/quote]


Wxman said they were supposed to do tweaks at the end of September but I don't know if they have done them yet.

2 PM TWO mentions the disturbance in the Western Gulf today...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
MOVE INLAND BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Paul wrote:

CMC has been tweaked from last year when it was spinning up everything and its brother.....I am not taken it for granted this year...

Oh, I agree; didn't mean to sound like I was bashing it. It's seemed to have some track forecast issues this year but I'd say overall it's much improved over its old self. I was mainly referring to the Colin fiasco where my model was backing the CMC's Florida play and we got burned big time.

Edit: if Canadian isn't back on the crackpipe again, that is. [/quote]


CMC has been tweaked from last year when it was spinning up everything and its brother.....I am not taken it for granted this year...[/quote]


Wxman said they were supposed to do tweaks at the end of September but I don't know if they have done them yet.[/quote]



yeah he said that but what from what I heard at the beginning of this year it had been tweaked before the season.....whatever the case....this is bombing out as its closing in on the coast....worst case scenario,,,