Remnants of Matthew Inland Over Southern Mexico

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srainhoutx
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Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Post by srainhoutx » Sun Sep 19, 2010 10:44 am

Today's 12Z version of the GFS suggests a large Hurricane entering the Gulf SW of Florida...moving NE...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Post by Met Tech » Sun Sep 19, 2010 11:03 am

srainhoutx wrote:
Today's 12Z version of the GFS suggests a large Hurricane entering the Gulf SW of Florida...moving NE...
Very interesting since it's been so consistent in development. I sure hope I can get to the bottom of Josh's Kestrel problem before another chase comes up.

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Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Post by srainhoutx » Sun Sep 19, 2010 11:07 am

What is becoming rather clear is that we will see the genesis of a large storm in the NW Caribbean in the next 6-10 days. Where this cyclone ends up is pure speculation at this point. The worrisome point is that area of the NW Caribbean has a history of spawning some Hurricane names that will not soon be forgotten. We will see what the other guidance offers today.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Post by srainhoutx » Sun Sep 19, 2010 11:09 am

Met Tech wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:
Today's 12Z version of the GFS suggests a large Hurricane entering the Gulf SW of Florida...moving NE...
Very interesting since it's been so consistent in development. I sure hope I can get to the bottom of Josh's Kestrel problem before another chase comes up.
I've been thinking about that as well, Cory. Contruction of some sort of 'shield' without affecting the readings and performance of the Kestrel is certainly a challenge.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Post by srainhoutx » Sun Sep 19, 2010 11:18 am

12Z Canadian has settled down and now shows development in the SW Caribbean @ 144 hours..
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Post by Met Tech » Sun Sep 19, 2010 12:29 pm

My model is doing similar to what the CMC was doing before changing its mind today. This is 12Z Sep 25th and it's paralleling Cuba at the time.

Image

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Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Post by sambucol » Sun Sep 19, 2010 12:30 pm

srainhoutx wrote:12Z Canadian has settled down and now shows development in the SW Caribbean @ 144 hours..
Is there anything preventing this storm from heading our way on the upper TX coast?

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Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Post by sambucol » Sun Sep 19, 2010 12:31 pm

Met Tech wrote:My model is doing similar to what the CMC was doing before changing its mind today. This is 12Z Sep 25th and it's paralleling Cuba at the time.
http://www.sanfordlabs.com/WRF/caribbean1.png
What would that mean for the track in the GOM?

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Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Post by Met Tech » Sun Sep 19, 2010 12:34 pm

sambucol wrote:
What would that mean for the track in the GOM?
I only ran it out to 144 hours, but at the time it was on a track straight for the Gulf. I'm rerunning it out to 180 now just out of curiosity.

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Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Post by sambucol » Sun Sep 19, 2010 12:35 pm

Met Tech wrote:
sambucol wrote:
What would that mean for the track in the GOM?
I only ran it out to 144 hours, but at the time it was on a track straight for the Gulf. I'm rerunning it out to 180 now just out of curiosity.
Ok. I'm curious if Texas is possibly at target.

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