Remnants of Matthew Inland Over Southern Mexico

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Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Post by Andrew » Sat Sep 18, 2010 11:37 am


It is also sending it NW so SE texas would get hit pretty hard. We are getting pretty good consensus that this will be a gulf threat but beyond that we can not really tell.
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Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Post by Paul » Sat Sep 18, 2010 11:39 am

66hrs it picnhes off and develops bombing out as it appraoches the TX coast...this is 4 runs in a row now for the CMC.....144hr is really really short range....mid next week..... :shock:

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Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Post by Met Tech » Sat Sep 18, 2010 11:43 am

srainhoutx wrote:
12Z Canadian is at it again...
Wow...this could be a really interesting few days coming up.

Edit: if Canadian isn't back on the crackpipe again, that is. ;)

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Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Post by Paul » Sat Sep 18, 2010 11:48 am

I am not liking these runs at all....CMC has been better than the EURO at 72hr verifying....of course we need something to develop first but its so close time wise.....if I see this run again tonight and tomorrow and something looks to be stirring.....its prep time...

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Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Post by Paul » Sat Sep 18, 2010 11:51 am

Met Tech wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:
12Z Canadian is at it again...
Wow...this could be a really interesting few days coming up.

Edit: if Canadian isn't back on the crackpipe again, that is. ;)

CMC has been tweaked from last year when it was spinning up everything and its brother.....I am not taken it for granted this year...

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Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Post by Andrew » Sat Sep 18, 2010 11:51 am

Met Tech wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:
12Z Canadian is at it again...
Wow...this could be a really interesting few days coming up.

Edit: if Canadian isn't back on the crackpipe again, that is. ;)

If this happens it will be a little more than interesting. The GFS is showing the same thing at a farther time frame. A dominating ridge is indicated by both models. A typical La Nina solution for a already crazy year.
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Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Post by Andrew » Sat Sep 18, 2010 11:52 am

Met Tech wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:
12Z Canadian is at it again...
Wow...this could be a really interesting few days coming up.

Edit: if Canadian isn't back on the crackpipe again, that is. ;)

CMC has been tweaked from last year when it was spinning up everything and its brother.....I am not taken it for granted this year...[/quote]


Wxman said they were supposed to do tweaks at the end of September but I don't know if they have done them yet.
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Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Post by srainhoutx » Sat Sep 18, 2010 11:57 am

2 PM TWO mentions the disturbance in the Western Gulf today...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST OVER EXTREME
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
MOVE INLAND BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Post by Met Tech » Sat Sep 18, 2010 11:57 am

Paul wrote:
CMC has been tweaked from last year when it was spinning up everything and its brother.....I am not taken it for granted this year...
Oh, I agree; didn't mean to sound like I was bashing it. It's seemed to have some track forecast issues this year but I'd say overall it's much improved over its old self. I was mainly referring to the Colin fiasco where my model was backing the CMC's Florida play and we got burned big time. ;)

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Re: Caribbean/Gulf Development Next Week?

Post by Paul » Sat Sep 18, 2010 11:58 am

Edit: if Canadian isn't back on the crackpipe again, that is. ;)[/quote]


CMC has been tweaked from last year when it was spinning up everything and its brother.....I am not taken it for granted this year...[/quote]


Wxman said they were supposed to do tweaks at the end of September but I don't know if they have done them yet.[/quote]



yeah he said that but what from what I heard at the beginning of this year it had been tweaked before the season.....whatever the case....this is bombing out as its closing in on the coast....worst case scenario,,,

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