Not surprising. Your computer has been cursed with all that NAM talk you were typing earlier. It obviously has migrated into your hard drive.
Haha. I should have known better than to stick up for that thing. Although, still seems it had the right idea of a tighter and stronger system compared to the globals yesterday.
I'll give it that but seems to be more in character of the NAM. I think someone on Eastern was mentioning that there were plans to tweak it so it handled tropical systems better.
I know the locals were readily dismissing the NAM and really isn't that unexpected with its tropical track record. HPC did mention it quite a bit and didn't necessarily downplay it as much.
Snippet from that latest model diagnostic disco -
...TROPICAL STORM HERMINE...
PREFERENCE: REFER TO OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
THE 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND STRONGER THROUGH THE 84 HOUR
PD... BUT IT IS FASTER AND SIGNIFICANTLY EAST OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING WHEN THE DEPRESSION IS OVER
OKLAHOMA... BY THAT TIME IT BECOMES MUCH CLOSER TO THE TRACK.
THE NAM IS THE STRONGEST PIECE OF GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT AT THE
SFC... SO IT IS MORE REFLECTIVE OF THE TRUE CHARACTER OF THE
STORM... BUT ITS POSITION AND RESULTANT QPF IS NOT IN LINE WITH
THE OFFICIAL TRACK. THE 12Z UKMET AND CAN GLBL ALSO TRENDED
FASTER AND EWD... SO THEY ARE SIGNIFICANTLY OFF THE NHC TRACK.
12Z GFS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK ALONG
WITH THE 12Z ECMWF.
Andrew wrote:A little North wobble. Should be interesting to see how long it lasts because then Brownsville could get a direct hit.
Maybe kayci was onto something.
Those your own images Andrew? Very nice if so.
Yea I think Kayci was. I don't know how long it will last and I know wobble watching is bad but with Brownsville being so close I thought it would be alright.
Yea i am using the GRLevel 3 with some special place-files. It is so useful.
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I love this radar too. It is probably the best radar system out there. I just started using place-files and wow! They sure are useful and I am going to start looking for some more soon.
Here is where I got my tropical points for anyone who is intrested:
I'll give it that but seems to be more in character of the NAM. I think someone on Eastern was mentioning that there were plans to tweak it so it handled tropical systems better.
I know the locals were readily dismissing the NAM and really isn't that unexpected with its tropical track record. HPC did mention it quite a bit and didn't necessarily downplay it as much.
-----------------------------
Interesting about the tweak. Since the NAM is the HWRF's sister, I'm wondering if they'll move NAM in that direction.
Andrew wrote:I love this radar too. It is probably the best radar system out there. I just started using place-files and wow! They sure are useful and I am going to start looking for some more soon.
[/quote]
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I even have my 73 year old grandma operating GRLEVEL3 on her computer. I never in my life thought I'd see her excitedly zooming in on thunderstorms.
Andrew wrote:I love this radar too. It is probably the best radar system out there. I just started using place-files and wow! They sure are useful and I am going to start looking for some more soon.
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I even have my 73 year old grandma operating GRLEVEL3 on her computer. I never in my life thought I'd see her excitedly zooming in on thunderstorms. [/quote]
Haha you should give her my link It is so much better than going to the NOAA site and the different views with the marker ability etc is awesome.
Also as of the last ~hour I am tracking a 350 degree movement.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1048 PM CDT MON SEP 6 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CAMERON COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT
* AT 1048 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 60
MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BROWNSVILLE.
OLMITO.
RANCHO VIEJO.
SAN BENITO.
HARLINGEN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.
This thing is crazy. I've never seen stair stepping like this system is doing. It was clearly moving nw as it began to move inland, and now it is moving north to nne again. This has been a trend since yesterday.
biggerbyte wrote:This thing is crazy. I've never seen stair stepping like this system is doing. It was clearly moving nw as it began to move inland, and now it is moving north to nne again. This has been a trend since yesterday.
Yea it was on a western track then North and now there seems to be a big wobble east.
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I did not hear it myself, but someone said that Gene Norman said he was concerned this might hug the coast. I've been busy all day and have not looked at anything other than what this system is doing. Gene seems to know something noone else knows about what it could do later.
biggerbyte wrote:It is obviously not following the NHC path. Gene mentioned, apparantly, that it could move back over water and ride the coastline.
Yea I don't know about that (If it keeps up this movement right now it will be out in the gulf again soon). I do think it will track east of the NHC forecast. Maybe even out of the cone.
ALSO.... One thing to note is the center is getting harder and harder to track so as a result I along with others could be looking at an illusion but I am fairly confident it is heading in a NE track as of right now.
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I guess it is time to put the old weather work gloves on and get a handle on what's up with this system tonight. I assumed it was a done deal, since that was the word for the evening. There is a trend here that needs to be watched. Everyone that is still awake is noticing it. Gene just might be on to something.
biggerbyte wrote:I guess it is time to put the old weather work gloves on and get a handle on what's up with this system tonight. I assumed it was a done deal, since that was the word for the evening. There is a trend here that needs to be watched. Everyone that is still awake is noticing it. Gene just might be on to something.
Yea I am waiting on the 1am update too see if what I am thinking is right.
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Hmm they still say NNW. I think they are going to wait to see if this motion continues.
ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
100 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
...CENTER OF HERMINE CROSSES THE RIO GRANDE...SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 97.7W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SSW OF HARLINGEN TEXAS
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NW OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.7 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HERMINE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY
ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. VERY RECENTLY...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH...87 KM/HR...AND
A PEAK GUST OF 69 MPH...111 KM/HR...WERE REPORTED AT HARLINGEN
TEXAS WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH...72
KM/HR...AND A PEAK GUST OF 69 MPH...111 KM/HR...WERE ALSO REPORTED
AT THE BROWNSVILLE/SOUTH PADRE ISLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WARNING AREA
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.
RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS
NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST THROUGH THIS MORNING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN
NNNN
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I love this radar too. It is probably the best radar system out there. I just started using place-files and wow! They sure are useful and I am going to start looking for some more soon. 
