Remnants of Hermine

[srainhoutx]

RECON descending to operational level...

[srainhoutx]

RECON is finding some 50 mph flight level winds inbound from the NE quadrant. Nearing the center at this time.

[Scott747]

For those along the immediate coast and just inland. They just hoisted a wind advisory for us. Just advance warning that it might get a little gusty as Hermine moves onshore later tonight and into tomorrow.

Full advisory - http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... d+Advisory

143 PM CDT MON SEP 6 2010

...WIND ADVISORY FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH NOON TUESDAY...

.SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AS
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE APPROACHES DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

TXZ214-235>238-071200-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WI.Y.0009.100906T1900Z-100907T1700Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-GALVESTON-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
EDNA...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...MONT BELVIEU...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...TEXAS CITY...
WINNIE

[srainhoutx]

Possible center fix near 24.183N 96.767W. We will see what the vortex message offers.

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 19:22Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number & Year: 10L in 2010
Storm Name: Hermine (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 19:09:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°11'N 96°46'W (24.1833N 96.7667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 129 miles (208 km) to the SSE (160°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,385m (4,544ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 149° at 48kts (From the SSE at ~ 55.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 995mb (29.38 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:01:50Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the NNE (20°) from the flight level center

[Scott747]

Honestly thought they were going to find a stronger system.

[srainhoutx]

Galveston, Harris and Waller Counties have been added to the Flood Watch.

[Andrew]

I already cleared my QPF value of .5in. Prob got over an inch but radar only says .6

[gfreely]

I know it's the question you guys dread hearing EVERY year, but...

What are the chances of it jogging more North and coming a little more this way?

[srainhoutx]

I know it's the question you guys dread hearing EVERY year, but...

What are the chances of it jogging more North and coming a little more this way?

So far it appears to be on track and heading toward landfall in NE MX. And we don't DREAD hearing that question at all, gfreely.

[Scott747]

Hermine is getting really close to the coast. Getting late to have any major surprises.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/06/10 1946Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1930Z KUSSELSON
.
LOCATION...S TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...HGX...CRP...BRO...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...TS HERMINE RAINFALL...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VIS SATELLITE IMAGE AT 1745Z PUTTING
CENTER OF HERMINE NEAR 24N/96.7W AT 1745Z AND VIS THRU 1930Z MATCHING
RADAR CENTER CLOSE TO 24.2N/96.7W. IN ANY CASE SIGNIFICANT RAINS FROM
INNER CORE OF HERMINE STILL ABOUT 117 MILES FROM BROWNSVILLE. MOST
SIGNIFICANT OUTER BANDS ON NW SIDE FOR THE TIME WILL GO INTO NE MEXICO
SOUTH OF SOUTH TEXAS. ONLY A WEAK NARROW BAND HEADING NORTH TO AFFECT S
TEXAS AND NEAR THE COAST AND JUST INLAND OVER THE NEXT 3HRS. SATELLITE
6HR RAIN ESTIMATE MAX THRU 1915Z WAS CLOSE TO 7" NEAR 23.8N/96.2W...SEE
ESTIMATE GRAPHIC ON HOME PAGE SHORTLY AT ADDRESS BELOW...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEND MESSAGES EVERY 3HRS WHILE HERMANE
HEADS TOWARD NE MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 062037
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
400 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

...HERMINE NEARING THE COAST...SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 97.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 20:33Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number & Year: 10L in 2010
Storm Name: Hermine (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 20:24:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°26'N 96°53'W (24.4333N 96.8833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 110 miles (177 km) to the SSE (160°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,358m (4,455ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 45kts (~ 51.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 179° at 49kts (From the S at ~ 56.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 992mb (29.29 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 49kts (~ 56.4mph) in the southeast quadrant at 20:11:40Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb

[srainhoutx]

Pressure is down a touch (3mb)...

[weatherguy425]

quite the outer band getting ready to move ashore.

[wxman57]

I know it's the question you guys dread hearing EVERY year, but...

What are the chances of it jogging more North and coming a little more this way?

A little more this way? I'd say chances of that are fair. By that I mean maybe 10 miles farther north than projected. But as for coming far enough north so that we'd be in any part of the wind field, well, that's about zero.

[srainhoutx]

Rather impressive batch of moisture poised to move inland just S and E of Galveston. Looks like a wet night for SE TX...

[ticka1]

How long will the rain last? I know here on the east side we have a lesser chance of getting alot of rain then the west side. Just curious how long the rain potential will last once Hermine moves onshore later tonight between BRO and Mexico

[srainhoutx]

HGX is saying the best chances are tomorrow. Chance of storms continue through Thursday I believe. There is a lot of tropical moisture headed toward most of TX with the SE wind flow off the Gulf.