Remnants of Hermine

[srainhoutx]

SPC:

...TX...

RECENTLY NAMED TS HERMINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWWD THROUGH THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AND INTO DEEP S TX TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
INCREASE IN LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR AND MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM INLAND...AND AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST ALONG THE LOWER TO MIDDLE COASTAL PLAIN
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

[srainhoutx]

12Z NAM (since it may have had the right idea all along) at 12 hours...

[srainhoutx]

18 hours...landfall near Corpus Christi...

[perk]

Hermine appears to mean business and is definitely ramping up quickly. Last night I would have scoffed at the suggestion that this storm could be close to a Cat-1 by landfall. That doesn't appear to be so far-fetched as this point.

This one looks like a real flood threat for us in south Texas.

Does'nt surprise me at all. When i see where Hermine started Bret comes to mine.

[wxman57]

Yes, I'm having Bret deja-vu as well. I think Hermine will move inland just north of Brownsville as a Cat 1 hurricane. Could even be stronger. Chances of it moving inland north of Corpus look low.

[srainhoutx]

Some cold tops around the south side of the center...

[Andrew]

Wow this morning is rough. Late last night. Anyways maybe we shouldn't discount the NAM 100% of the time


Also I don't know how much of a NNW movement is really there. I know last night they had a pretty bad fix on where the center was putting it in convection off to the west and now moving it back. This should be solved once recon gets in there.

[Scott747]

I think Hermine will move inland just north of Brownsville as a Cat 1 hurricane. Could even be stronger. Chances of it moving inland north of Corpus look low.

Was thinking the same though still leaning towards S of the border.

Port Mansfield to far N?

[Met Tech]

Speaking of which. I need to get with ya about possibly building me one or helping me out in building one. I know you touched on how to do it in the chase thread but wasn't sure if you had already got a patent on it.

One of those off season things to do.

Ok, cool, I'll be happy to help you get set up with one of them. I'll PM you about it later.

[srainhoutx]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 061431
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

...HERMINE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 95.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM RIO SAN
FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE...AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE NORTHWARD TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO PORT
OCONNOR.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
SOUTH OF LA CRUZ.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LA CRUZ MEXICO NORTHWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
ABOUT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST. HERMINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS IN THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
AND HERMINE COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA LATER TODAY.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

RAINFALL...HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI

[Andrew]

[srainhoutx]

Sort of fitting isn't it, to have so many folks watching and posting about a Tropical system this morning after the loss of our friend.

In total there are 30 users online :: 9 registered, 2 hidden and 19 guests (based on users active over the past 5 minutes)

[Andrew]

Sort of fitting isn't it, to have so many folks watching and posting about a Tropical system this morning after the loss of our friend.

In total there are 30 users online :: 9 registered, 2 hidden and 19 guests (based on users active over the past 5 minutes)

Indeed and I thought it was also amazing that Met Tech joined the next day. It is Dan working, trying to make this forum better.

[srainhoutx]

RECON may have had a mechanical issue. Data suggests they have turned around and are heading back to base.

[Met Tech]

RECON may have had a mechanical issue. Data suggests they have turned around and are heading back to base.

D'oh!! I've been anxiously awaiting them getting into this thing while it's looking so good. Sure hope we don't miss an ob from the best part.

[Rip76]

WX57

Why the northward shift in your thinking?
Obviously because it's traveling more NWard, but I thought the front/ridge would send this straight to Mexico.

I give up

[Met Tech]

I'm wondering about a core rain event myself, especially if it drifts along with the NHC track because it brings it in between Del Rio and San Antonio where my family lives (Sabinal) They have some botched flood-control road construction going on there and if this thing does an overnight dump it's going to be a mess.

Edit: Later I'm going to do a double-nested KWRF run with a 5km nest over my home area and another over Houston for you guys to see what it does with rainfall totals.

[srainhoutx]

Yeah Cory, the potential for core rains is likely very real with the approach that Hermine will make into Central TX. Looking forward to your KWRF runs.

[Andrew]

I'm wondering about a core rain event myself, especially if it drifts along with the NHC track because it brings it in between Del Rio and San Antonio where my family lives (Sabinal) They have some botched flood-control road construction going on there and if this thing does an overnight dump it's going to be a mess.

Edit: Later I'm going to do a double-nested KWRF run with a 5km nest over my home area and another over Houston for you guys to see what it does with rainfall totals.

Yea I remember all the rain we got from Alex. Also thanks in advance for running the KWRF for our area.

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS suggests a landfall very near the border at hour 18...