Remnants of Hermine

Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis
weatherguy425
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Models have shifted north with the system still moving NNE. I think in this kind of a setup with weak steerings currents and a very weak broad system, its gonna be hard to pinpoint a potential area of landfall until it becmes more organized.
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I guess i "chewed" out the NHC too early. Sorry NHC :lol:

AL, 10, 2010090600, , BEST, 0, 204N, 951W, 25, 1003, TD
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WTNT25 KNHC 060243
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
0300 UTC MON SEP 06 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 95.2W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 95.2W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 95.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.6N 95.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 96.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.7N 98.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 26.4N 99.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 30.0N 100.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 95.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

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Andrew
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000
WTNT35 KNHC 060248
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 95.2W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
BY LATE MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
IN THE WARNING AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES...
BASED ON REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42055.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING
AREA MONDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH
TEXAS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
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ticka1
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Need to change the title of this thread.
Andrew
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ticka1 wrote:Need to change the title of this thread.
Yea I am sure Srain will do it in a little. He is a very busy man.
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Andrew
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Also one thing to notice about the track is that it moves into Central western Texas so we should get a good amount of rain for a couple of days.
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Stormrider
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TD 10 will drag a good deal of moisture across Texas in the next couple of days, so our lawns won't be quite as crispy.
Noticed in the forecast discussion there was some uncertainty in when the left turn would happen. Kinda wonder if this might be a rewind of Humberto in 2007?
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As I recall about Humberto, it was supposed to go into Galveston as a small tropical storm, but instead, turned to the ENE and wrecked Sabine Pass, Port Arthur, Bridge City and Orange. Lots of people in Beaumont didn't even know a almost Category 2 hurricane had blown through moth of south Jefferson county and Orange county. I had to call my parents at about 2AM in the morning to tell them to go tie stuff down outside in Bridge City because they had a 80+MPH hurricane heading straight down HWY 73 towards their house. Took them a little while to believe me until I convinced them that I wouldn't be calling at 2AM about a hurricane! lol.

Either way, this is a favorable location to give Central Texas a good soaking rain, and to hopefully fill up Lake Travis a tad again before my wedding on Sept. 25th on the lake ;) My $160 water (yard watering) bill would love to see some rain too :D
Andrew
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Hmm convection seems to be north of the low right now. It will be interesting to see if convection builds back over the center or if the center dies out or if the center relocates.
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Andrew
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Now we really need to update the topic thread title:

AL, 10, 2010090606, , BEST, 0, 211N, 948W, 35, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 0, 0, 1007, 120, 40, 0, 0, L
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nuby3
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It really appears to be starting to strengthen rather quickly. I'll be curious to see what the morning brings
biggerbyte
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Folks, now I'm really concerned about this. We have a tropical storm already this morning. Latest coordinates point to a NNE movement. Lastly, the flow off the gulf is right into Texas.

Rain maker for Texas, at the very least. This could end up being a rapid developer with short notice landfall changes. I'd get my ducks in a row just in case this turns out to be more than just a heavy rain event. Nothing is set in stone just yet. We are following trends, vs. what is currently being forecasted. Watch for any changes in that forecast. I would not be shocked to see the official track shift north.


More later...
Last edited by biggerbyte on Mon Sep 06, 2010 3:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
Scott747
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It's only marginally more organized than it was last night.
Scott747
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Just a quick look from a convective standpoint over the last 24 hours. Also at best it has dropped maybe 5 or 6 mbs in that time frame. It's organizing for sure but not anything to cause concern. Especially in our neck of the woods.

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srainhoutx
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I went ahead and updated the title to TS. Although an official upgrade to Hermine from NHC has not occurred yet, we should see that at 4 AM.

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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Scott747
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biggerbyte wrote:Folks, now I'm really concerned about this. We have a tropical storm already this morning. Latest coordinates point to a NNE movement. Lastly, the flow off the gulf is right into Texas.




More later...
Which coordinates point to a NNE movement?

Latest I have show due N.
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srainhoutx
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Scott, do you have any ASCAT pass info or vorticity update?
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Scott747
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srainhoutx wrote:Scott, do you have any ASCAT pass info or vorticity update?
I think someone posted one over on Eastern as if it suggested a center reformation but this one has been pretty defined for awhile. I've got like 20 windows open on dual screens right now so I'm slow as molasses.

*edit*

Vorticity map doesn't show any surprises.
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srainhoutx
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TFB positions do show a bit of a Northerly component. Let's hope this behaves and goes inland in NE MX where the NHC suggests.

AL, 10, 2010090406, , BEST, 0, 184N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB,
AL, 10, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 186N, 957W, 20, 1009, DB,
AL, 10, 2010090418, , BEST, 0, 187N, 956W, 20, 1009, DB,
AL, 10, 2010090500, , BEST, 0, 189N, 956W, 20, 1007, DB,
AL, 10, 2010090506, , BEST, 0, 191N, 956W, 20, 1007, DB,
AL, 10, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 195N, 957W, 25, 1005, DB,
AL, 10, 2010090518, , BEST, 0, 200N, 955W, 25, 1004, DB,
AL, 10, 2010090600, , BEST, 0, 204N, 951W, 30, 1003, TD,
AL, 10, 2010090606, , BEST, 0, 211N, 948W, 35, 1002, TS,
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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