Remnants of Hermine

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KWRF pressure bottoms out at 988 mb and around 55 kt near landfall. 07/00Z.. Much further south than yesterday's run but looks a little north of most the other models.
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srainhoutx
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NHC keeps a 60% chance of development...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Rip76
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Am I seeing a spin up a little further north, than previously thought.
SE of Brownsville?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/sat_zoom ... _loop.html
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Rip76 wrote:Am I seeing a spin up a little further north, than previously thought.
SE of Brownsville?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/sat_zoom ... _loop.html
Your best shot at seeing surface rotation is not with an IR satellite image. Use a high res visible when there are no obs available. Of course, there are quite a few obs in the Gulf, so that's the best way to confirm a rotation. There's nothing up by Brownsville, but I do detect an elongated trof all across the SW Gulf oriented north-south.
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Hard to see on the iPhone here.
About 200 miles or so, SSE of Brownsville
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Regardless of development, the HPC is mentioning this feature. Certainly appears that the moisture may linger a bit longer across TX.

HPC:

ELSEWHERE...QUESTIONS CONTINUE WITH RESPECT TO A DEVELOPING WRN
GULF OF MEX LOW RELATED TO FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11-E. THESE
CONCERN POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION AND MOTION TO NE MEX/TX JUST PRIOR
TO THE MEDIUM RANGE. A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN MAINTAIN
THE SYSTEM AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA FROM CENTRAL TX THRU ERN OK/SRN
MO TO THE LOWER OH VLY. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL
WAVE ACROSS TX MIDWEEK MAINTAINING CONTINUITY AND LEANED AWAY FROM
THE NAM...THOUGH RECENT ECMWF TRENDS FAVOR A STRONGER SOLUTION.
EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE WET ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE/PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY MID-LATER WEEK AS
PER DEEP MOISTURE THEN EVENTUAL FRONTAL APPROACH. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST OUTLOOKS FROM THE NHC CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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RECON is scheduled to investigate starting tomorrow...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 051530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SUN 05 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-097

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNENTS OF GASTON
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 06/1800, 07/0000Z A. 07/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0108A GASTON B. AFXXX 0208A GASTON
C. 06/1600Z C. 07/0415Z
D. 17.0N 57.0W D. 17.0N 60.0W
E. 06/1700Z TO 07/0000Z E. 07/0500Z TO 1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
SUSPECT AREA -- GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 78
A. 06/1600Z A. 07/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 06/1300Z C. 07/0300Z
D. 21.0N 96.5W D. 22.0N 97.5W
E. 06/1500Z TO 2200Z E. 07/0500Z TO 1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT


2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES ON GASTON.
B. NEGATIVE ON SUSPECT AREA IN GULF.

3. REMARKS: NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR RESEARCH FLIGHT
INTO GASTON ABOVE 41,000 FT. DEPARTING 06/1000Z.
NASA DC-8 WILL FLY A 10 HR RESEARCH FLIGHT INTO
GASTON BETWEEN 35 AND 39,000 FT. DEPARTING 06/1800Z.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Hi Res Visible Imagery suggests a rather vigorous llc moving a bit further offshore this afternoon. There does appear to be a bit of a northerly component with that feature as well.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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When they fly this, what will be found is that the llc is pretty far off shore. Even the current Sat. photos suggest that. Not only that, but it will a bit further north than the far sw portion of the Gulf, as currently being suggested. This is all based on
visual only, but I do believe it to be correct. We'll see...

At any rate.. Whatever position it is officialy called to be in, this sharp turn west, or wnw seems a bit off kilter to me. I would suggest a NNW movement. I'm not sure this could ride straight north all the way up, due to steering mechanisms currently across the gulf. At some point it has to move over land in Mexico or Texas. My call is Northern Mexico to CC Texas. Map that llc further east and north, still, and that landfall could swing even further up the Texas Coast. This would also mean more time over water.

This one is for you, Dan.

PS... I hope you gave that snow making Ray gun to Steve for the upcoming winter. AD would be greatly upset if you didn't. :)
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Just a side note. At the moment, this system looks to be moving slightly east of north. That movement would have to change to add a westerly component at some point before too long.
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does anyone think it could make it up towards the upper Texas coast?
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redfish1 wrote:does anyone think it could make it up towards the upper Texas coast?
I don't think so Red. I do think the "current" track thinking is perhaps a little more south than mentioned. Meaning I think that the "bulk" of moisture will be closer to the Texas/ Mexico border. Time will tell. As far as those located in SE TX I think it is safe to say that tropical moisture will infiltrate the area bringing some needed rain starting tomorrow afternoon/night.
JMS
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Should be upgraded to a TD soon IMO...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMATION
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND IN A DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS ALONG
THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS LOW.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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redfish1 wrote:does anyone think it could make it up towards the upper Texas coast?

Depends on how long the current trend of moving with an easterly component lasts. This system would have to swing back with a westerly component instead at some point. At this time, until we can get a better handle on what's up, I have to say all of the Texas coast is up for grabs. Landfall most likely south, but it is a bit premature to be too dismissive.

We'll see...
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Should be some interesting runs tonight and I believe the stronger and faster this storm develops the farther north it goes. Lets see how far the NNE- NE movement continues.
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Looks like no upgrade at 11:00 PM...pressures are a down a touch...

AL, 90, 2010090600, , BEST, 0, 204N, 954W, 25, 1003, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx wrote:Looks like no upgrade at 11:00 PM...pressures are a down a touch...

AL, 90, 2010090600, , BEST, 0, 204N, 954W, 25, 1003, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S

That angers me. I mean you have storms like Fiona which look like crap and then you have a system like this with obs and radar to back it up and you get no upgrade.....
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Well it isn't 10:00 PM our time and a Special could be issued. Looks rather impressive development wise...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Early Track
Attachments
Invest90L_track_early2.png
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JMS
SR. ENSC.
Andrew
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BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al902010_al102010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201009060210
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 10, 2010, DB, O, 2010090500, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 5, AL102010
AL, 10, 2010090406, , BEST, 0, 184N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 186N, 957W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2010090418, , BEST, 0, 187N, 956W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2010090500, , BEST, 0, 189N, 956W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 10, 2010090506, , BEST, 0, 191N, 956W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2010090512, , BEST, 0, 195N, 957W, 25, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 160, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2010090518, , BEST, 0, 199N, 957W, 25, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 10, 2010090600, , BEST, 0, 204N, 954W, 25, 1003, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 150, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
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