Remnants of Hermine

[sambucol]

It's an invest now. 90L.
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902010.invest
FSTDA
R
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201009050513
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010090500, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902010
AL, 90, 2010090406, , BEST, 0, 184N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 186N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090418, , BEST, 0, 189N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090500, , BEST, 0, 193N, 958W, 20, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[Met Tech]

Looks like all the coastal WFOs are discounting a stronger system like the NAM depicts (which is similar to KWRF). Haven't seen any reasoning behind it though.

[srainhoutx]

Yeah the Coastal WFO's are discounting the NAM (non tropical model) for a GFS/ECMWF solution of a weaker system. We shall see. Regardless, the rain chances look to be going up beginning tomorrow. Certainly worth watching until it gets onshore.

RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATES THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

[Met Tech]

Yeah the Coastal WFO's are discounting the NAM (non tropical model) for a GFS/ECMWF solution of a weaker system. We shall see. Regardless, that rain chances look to be going up beginning tomorrow. Certainly worth watching until it gets onshore.
[/i]

I just wonder if that's the only reason they're throwing out the NAM. I don't really pay attention to the NAM with tropics, and wouldn't question the wisdom of tossing it out in this case if it didn't look close to KWRF, which I ran twice with different configurations and still came out with a stronger storm. The one I posted yesterday used the setup that tends to be conservative with tropical systems.

NCEP's 5km ARW and NMM models seem to have a smaller, more tightly wound system as well. It seems the higher-resolution models are being more aggressive with it even with their individual internal differences.

[srainhoutx]

Yeah Met Tech, even the HPC is discounting the NAM as an outlier even with rainfall potential. This all could change as things progress throughout the day...time for coffee...looks like a busy several days...

HPC:

QUESTIONS SURROUND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT THIS TIME /WHICH STEMS FROM FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION
11-E WHICH STRUCK SOUTHEAST MEXICO ON SATURDAY/...HOW STRONG IT
WILL BE...AND WHEN/WHERE IT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
INTO TEXAS JUST PRIOR TO THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THERE ARE A
HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA WHICH MOVES FROM CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. FOR
NOW...KEPT THE SYSTEM A TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS TEXAS EARLY ON
SIMILAR TO HOW IT WAS COORDINATED AT 16Z ON SATURDAY AND LEANED
AWAY FROM THE 00Z NAM...THOUGH THE RECENT TRENDS SEEN IN THE ECMWF
FAVOR A STRONGER SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE WET ACROSS
THE LONE STAR STATE/PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY TO MID PERIOD. SEE THE LATEST OUTLOOKS
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like pressures are falling slowly in the BoC...

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

[Met Tech]

Welcome aboard. The workstation wrf and the handle sound strangely familiar.

I have nothing to add, but I hope it beings rain, haven't really been short on rain the last few weeks, but as long as it isn't flooding, I figure more is better than less.


Hey Ed! Hope you guys do get some rain. I talked to my grandma yesterday in Sabinal (west of San Antonio) and her grass is getting crispy as well. Hopefully this thing can manage some good rain in both spots.

[djjordan]

I would not be surprised at all to see this thing become a Tropical Depression later today. It looks very good on Satellite and as Steve said pressures are falling in the area.

[srainhoutx]

Hmmm...12Z tracking guidance is rather impressive...

Code: Select all

238 
WHXX01 KWBC 051229
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1229 UTC SUN SEP 5 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902010) 20100905 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100905  1200   100906  0000   100906  1200   100907  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.4N  95.6W   20.3N  96.1W   21.4N  96.9W   22.7N  97.6W
BAMD    19.4N  95.6W   19.9N  96.3W   20.3N  97.0W   20.9N  97.8W
BAMM    19.4N  95.6W   20.2N  96.0W   20.8N  96.7W   21.7N  97.5W
LBAR    19.4N  95.6W   19.9N  96.1W   20.8N  97.1W   22.1N  98.5W
SHIP        25KTS          34KTS          42KTS          51KTS
DSHP        25KTS          34KTS          42KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100907  1200   100908  1200   100909  1200   100910  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    24.2N  98.9W   27.5N 102.1W   31.9N 103.2W   38.0N  98.9W
BAMD    21.6N  99.0W   23.4N 101.8W   25.6N 103.9W   28.5N 104.1W
BAMM    22.8N  98.6W   25.3N 101.3W   28.6N 103.0W   33.2N 101.0W
LBAR    23.8N  99.9W   28.7N 101.9W   35.2N  99.5W   39.6N  89.3W
SHIP        60KTS          73KTS          77KTS          71KTS
DSHP        34KTS          27KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  19.4N LONCUR =  95.6W DIRCUR =   0DEG SPDCUR =   2KT
LATM12 =  18.9N LONM12 =  95.6W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 =   2KT
LATM24 =  18.6N LONM24 =  95.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  160NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

[srainhoutx]

Latest...appears that and area of low pressure is forming just offshore from Veracruz (reporting W winds)...

[Met Tech]

Although I've not paid really close attention to the model's handling of tropics before, the Rapid Refresh has had some 30-35 kt (possibly some 40 kt pixels in there) winds down in that area near the low for the past several hourly cycles.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z NAM (outlier and non tropical model) suggests a little less development (no Hurricane this run)and brings the low into S TX near Corpus Christi.

[Met Tech]

The 12Z NAM (outlier and non tropical model) suggests a little less development (no Hurricane this run)and brings the low into S TX near Corpus Christi.

Interesting...when I get home in a bit I'm going to fire up the KWRF again and see what happens.

[Rip76]

I don't see how much could happen here, it's almost near land now.

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS suggests a low (maybe TD) moving NNW near the Coast to Tampico through 48 hours.

[ticka1]

I'm with Rip76 on this - I don't see how anything could or will develop being so close to land. I don't think it will bring us any rain here in SE texas either due to its too far south.

[Andrew]

It looks like some of the models are hinting at a little farther north track. That should increase our rain chances.

[Ptarmigan]

If things get right, 90L has a shot at becoming TD 10 and Hermine. Regardless, we will get rain and that is fine with me.

[Rip76]

I don't see much rain making it this far north.
Hope I'm wrong though, my yard is screaming.

[Andrew]

I don't see much rain making it this far north.
Hope I'm wrong though, my yard is screaming.

With a system like this a lot of the moisture is to the west of the system and with the trof falling back these two things should give a steady flow of rain for us.