Remnants of Hermine

[Portastorm]

The Bay of Campeche is looking like it's getting busier!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg

[desiredwxgd]

Yes it does...

[srainhoutx]

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

[Ptarmigan]

I notice Invest 95E, which may end up in the Gulf of Mexico.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewforum ... b85095d924

[ticka1]

Mexico bound. What is going to bring us all the rain forcasted this week?

[srainhoutx]

Up to 30% now. It appears the moisture from this disturbance may well shift N as the system moves NNW into NE MX in a day or so.

LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH.
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER
WATER. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

[djjordan]

Well we all remember what Alex did for us right? Brazoria County was hit pretty hard with heavy rain. Gonna be interesting to see how this pans out the next couple of days. I'm not sure who said it a couple of weeks ago but they said we may need to pay attention to the Gulf over the Labor Day Weekend.

[srainhoutx]

HGX already mentioning increased rain chance beginning Monday. Some models suggest this may become a bit stronger than many had thought. We shall see.

[kayci]

HGX already mentioning increased rain chance beginning Monday. Some models suggest this may become a bit stronger than many had thought. We shall see.

Rain???? THANK YOU!!!!! I owe ya one.........

[srainhoutx]

I need the rain too kayci. My yard is turning brown like many other across the area that seem to just miss out. With that said, the 18Z NAM suggest a strong TS or even Hurricane near the NE MX Coast at about hour 60. While it is the NAM, it does raise an eyebrow concerning any potential development.

[srainhoutx]

Here what some of the Weather Offices along Coastal TX are thinking this afternoon...

Brownsville:

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL
BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON SUNDAY...JUST BEFORE
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS. THE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN A PREEXISTING
AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE. THIS FEATURE WILL SHAPE THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A WET PATTERN WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE DUE TO A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT AND UNSETTLED WEATHER...
THOUGH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT COASTAL AREAS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL ENHANCE THE EASTERLY FLOW AND WILL DRAG INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM FAVORS THE EARLIER SOLUTION WHILE THE
GFS FAVORS THE DELAYED SOLUTION. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASE INTO THE
70 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN IS EXPECTED...AS THESE WILL BE MAINLY TROPICAL SHOWERS...AND
QPFS ARE NOT SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POTENTIAL HOWEVER...
SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVIER AND MIGHT CAUSE PERIODS OF
NUISANCE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS OR IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE A CONSIDERATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IF
FORECAST SHORT TERM ACCUMULATIONS TREND UPWARD.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AT SOME POINT...LATE
TUESDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND EARLIER TUESDAY ACCORDING TO THE
NAM...BUT HEAVY AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL SEEM TO BE INDICATED. THE
THREAT OF RAIN WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY FROM EAST TO WEST.

Corpus Christi:

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK HINGES
ON PATH AND STRENGTH OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NOW IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW INTENSIFICATION BUT NAM HAS NOT
BEEN TRUSTWORTHY IN REGARDS TO QUICKLY SPINNING UP THESE TROPICAL
LOWS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW RAIN CHANCES SHARPLY INCREASING BY LABOR
DAY AS DEEP MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE COASTAL BEND. THE MODELS SHOW
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER COAHUILA THAT LEADS TO A
VERY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA. COULD SEE HEAVY RAIN
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE IN THIS AREA.
EXPECT THE LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TO BE IN NORTHEAST MEXICO BY
TUESDAY WITH HIGH AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE AREA WITH PWAT
VALUES FROM 2.5 TO 2.8 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION POSSIBILITY
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST TRACK OF
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE BRUSH COUNTRY BY
WEDNESDAY WITH LIKELY POPS REMAINING THERE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN THE RIO GRANDE WATERSHED IF THIS
SYSTEM DOES TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TREND OF
LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST. WINDS WILL AT SCA LEVELS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.



Houston/Galveston:

TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO SE TX IN EARNEST LABOR DAY
MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHICH THE NAM MODEL HAS BEEN LATCHING ONTO
AND AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GFS/ECMWF
ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH DEPICTING AT LEAST A TROPICAL LOW BUT
DO NOT DEVELOP IT AS OF YET. EVEN SO...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON THE RISE MON MORNING AS REGARDLESS OF MODEL CHOICE
MOISTURE WITH 2-2.5 INCH PRECIP WATER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SE
TX BY 18Z MON. POPS AROUND 50/60 PERCENT LOOK ON TRACK AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT INLAND DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT STARTING MON THROUGH WED. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH WED SO WILL KEEP 50/60 POPS ON TUE AND
40/50 POPS ON WED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD MAX TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S EACH DAY.


Austin/San Antonio:

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO SURGE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY.
MODELS STILL AREN`T IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOW MUCH...IF AT
ALL...TO STRENGTHEN THE GULF LOW/WAVE. HOWEVER...THERE IS GOOD
CONSENSUS OF AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE SITTING
ACROSS TEXAS. THIS WOULD DRAW THE GULF LOW/WAVE NORTHWARD AND
THEREFORE FEEL VERY CONFIDENT WITH CONTINUING WITH A WET PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE 12Z NAM12 AND GFS40 SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THAT PW VALUES COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 2.5"+ BY TUESDAY
AND HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE WEDS/EARLY THRS AS THE RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD FURTHER WESTWARD.

[kayci]

srain... I'll take what I can get at this point. Having a BBQ party tomorrow, but rain is WELCOME! I have plenty of room indoors and rain will not stop the big pit from smokin! I'm afraid to water my yard as I just now got my water bill down below $40.00! The front is welcome at my door and so's the rain!

Thanx for all you do for us.

[Met Tech]

Hi everyone...I just signed up this morning and figured I'd share some forecast graphics from my KWRF model concerning the potential Gulf system. It seems to be wanting to go for hurricane strength before landfall in Northern Mexico around 12Z on the 7th.

Pressure bottoms out at 983mb (purples are 65 kt and higher)

gulf3.jpeg (84.05 KiB) Viewed 4557 times

[srainhoutx]

Welcome aboard Met Tech. It should be interesting to see what your KWRF model offers in the weeks ahead. There are strong suggestions that the Western Caribbean and Gulf could become rather active. Meanwhile our SW Gulf feature is up to 40%

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

[djjordan]

This could be Alex's sister Hermine taking hitting almost the same area. BTW welcome Met Tech .... looking forward to more of your input on our forum

[srainhoutx]

Vorticity is nearing the SW BoC. We should see 90L sooner rather than later...

[Ptarmigan]

Did not mention that most of the major hurricanes that make landfall are from Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean. Especially in wet July's.

[wxman57]

I'm thinking it looks more like the TD Two setup than Alex. Weak low to TD moving inland before it gets too strong.

[Andrew]

GFS doesn't get a good grip on the storm and until a definite low forms the models will prob bounce around. One thing is looking pretty good and that is an increase rain chance for us here:

[Andrew]

Also look at this: