TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico

Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis
Post Reply
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008081403
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2010, DB, O, 2010080812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942010
AL, 94, 2010080718, , BEST, 0, 316N, 782W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010080800, , BEST, 0, 311N, 783W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010080806, , BEST, 0, 307N, 785W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2010080812, , BEST, 0, 303N, 786W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 081405
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1405 UTC SUN AUG 8 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100808 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100808  1200   100809  0000   100809  1200   100810  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    30.3N  78.6W   30.4N  78.6W   30.8N  79.4W   31.1N  80.5W
BAMD    30.3N  78.6W   29.5N  78.7W   28.8N  79.7W   28.3N  81.2W
BAMM    30.3N  78.6W   29.9N  78.8W   29.6N  79.8W   29.3N  81.2W
LBAR    30.3N  78.6W   30.1N  78.6W   30.0N  79.1W   30.0N  80.1W
SHIP        25KTS          27KTS          30KTS          32KTS
DSHP        25KTS          27KTS          30KTS          29KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100810  1200   100811  1200   100812  1200   100813  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    31.3N  82.2W   31.6N  86.1W   31.7N  89.3W   31.5N  90.7W
BAMD    27.8N  83.1W   27.6N  87.3W   28.4N  91.3W   29.3N  93.9W
BAMM    28.8N  83.2W   28.2N  87.3W   28.3N  90.9W   29.0N  93.2W
LBAR    30.1N  81.4W   30.0N  84.6W   30.3N  87.5W   31.1N  89.9W
SHIP        33KTS          36KTS          39KTS          42KTS
DSHP        31KTS          34KTS          38KTS          40KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  30.3N LONCUR =  78.6W DIRCUR = 195DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  31.1N LONM12 =  78.3W DIRM12 = 196DEG SPDM12 =   5KT
LATM24 =  32.4N LONM24 =  77.9W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   75NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
Image

Discuss away... :)
Last edited by srainhoutx on Tue Aug 10, 2010 6:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Reason: Edit Title
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

12Z NAM...perhaps some rain for us late next week...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Poltracker
Posts: 44
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:38 pm
Location: Deer Park, Texas
Contact:

Looks like it will ride the boundaries of the High Pressure. Rain would be nice as long as it does not strengthen appreciably.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 081500 COR
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 08 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-070 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST IN E. GULF NEAR 26.5N 83.5W AT 10/1800Z.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2501
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
Contact:

There is rotation visible from viewing the satellite images to the ESE of Jacksonville, FLA.
ticka1
Posts: 1265
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:02 pm
Location: Baytown/Mont Belvieu
Contact:

Could this one have any surprises for us like Alicia or Humberto - or will it just be TD or TS?
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3982
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

I don't see anything circled for 94L at the NHC site. Hmmmmmmmm....... I saw the path and has it heading into GOM and Texas. If it develops, it would either be Danielle or Earl.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

The good thing will be that we have radar to follow convection and any spin that may develop...

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
Rip76
Posts: 1787
Joined: Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:38 am
Location: The Woodlands
Contact:

Ticka,
Alicia was a surprise because of the proximity to Galveston when it formed.
There wasn't a ton of time to prepare.

With this, I think we'd have the time.
User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2501
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
Contact:

This is a good pre-plan day. Basically ready for any threat but its good to go over hurricane plans once again.
User avatar
SusieinLP
Posts: 184
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 6:07 am
Location: Galveston Bay
Contact:

I know my area could use some rain. Cracked everything. But I guess all this will depend on where the high pressure is sitting and how much time this blob sits over water. Will be interesting to see later models and discussions.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

12Z Canadian suggets Mobile, AL area...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

A WEAK NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.


Image
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
perk
Posts: 85
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 1:17 pm
Location: Richmond
Contact:

Rip76 wrote:Ticka,
Alicia was a surprise because of the proximity to Galveston when it formed.
There wasn't a ton of time to prepare.

With this, I think we'd have the time.

Great point Alicia formed from a frontal boundary pretty quickly. We'll at least have a few days to watch 94L.
User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 1047
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Mont Belvieu
Contact:

Katdaddy wrote:This is a good pre-plan day. Basically ready for any threat but its good to go over hurricane plans once again.
Good idea.
ticka1
Posts: 1265
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:02 pm
Location: Baytown/Mont Belvieu
Contact:

I know one thing - this heat ridge hasn't moved away from us - at 104 right now at the house. Is it forecasted to shift in the next couple of days - if not this tropical wave as it is right now will not come over us.
User avatar
SusieinLP
Posts: 184
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 6:07 am
Location: Galveston Bay
Contact:

This morning I was kind of paying attention to the news on KTRK 13 and the met said something about the high shifting towards the east allowing more gulf moisture to reach us by mid week...I don't know if he was referring to this blob or something else....
User avatar
wxman57
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2621
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:34 am
Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)
Contact:

This system reminds me of TD 10 from about 3 yrs ago. Developed just before moving into SE LA/southern MS. If if does develop, then most likely a TD or weak TS when it moves ashore. Most likely far enough east of us so as we wouldn't get much, if any, rain.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

18Z Tracks and Intensity...
08082010 18Z 94L track_early3.png
08082010 18Z 94L intensity_early3.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Image
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 28 guests